奔跑财经-FinaceRun

Peter Schiff: Cryptocurrency-backed mortgages drive up home buying costs, increasing default risks for buyers

On March 29, economist Peter Schiff posted on the X platform, sharply criticizing cryptocurrency-backed mortgages, pointing out that this innovative financial product actually increases the overall costs for homebuyers.

According to Schiff, homebuyers using cryptocurrency mortgages not only have to bear the interest of traditional home loans, but also pay interest on a "second loan" based on crypto assets used as collateral;

this dual interest burden effectively makes borrowers bear a financing cost equivalent to 100% of the home purchase cost, amplifying leverage levels and significantly increasing default risks for homebuyers.

Additionally, market news indicates that Coinbase has recently launched its first compliant cryptocurrency mortgage product, allowing users to use Bitcoin or USDC in their Coinbase accounts as collateral, which can be used to pay the down payment for a home purchase.

In summary, Schiff's criticism points directly to the core issue, that cryptocurrency-backed mortgages may appear to be financial innovation on the surface, but in reality, they burden homebuyers with dual interest and amplify leverage risks. Once there are dual massive fluctuations, borrowers will find themselves in a dead-end situation.

However, this does not imply that cryptocurrency-backed mortgages lack value; therefore, if the issues of volatility transmission and risk control mechanisms are not addressed, it may not be helping people lower the threshold for buying homes, but rather creating new default risks.

#加密抵押贷款风险

The total net outflow of US BTC and ETH spot ETFs this week is nearly 503 million USD

According to SosoValue data, the US BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of 296 million USD this week, marking the first week of net outflow after five consecutive weeks of net inflow;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT saw the largest net outflow this week at nearly 158 million USD, currently with a total net inflow of 63.1 billion USD;

Following that are Bitwise BITB, Grayscale GBTC, and ARK 21Shares ARKB, which recorded a net outflow of 68.29 million USD, 50.93 million USD, and 50.04 million USD respectively for the week;

VanEck HODL and Grayscale BTC also had net outflows of 10.28 million USD and 5.45 million USD respectively for the week;

It is worth noting that Fidelity FBTC had a net inflow of 46.88 million USD, making it the only BTC ETF with a net inflow this week;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 84.77 billion USD, accounting for 6.42% of Bitcoin's total market value, with a cumulative net inflow of 55.93 billion USD.

In the same week, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of nearly 207 million USD, marking two consecutive weeks of net outflow;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA and Grayscale ETH recorded net outflows of 285 million USD and 24.90 million USD respectively for the week;

Additionally, Fidelity FETH, Grayscale ETHE, and Bitwise ETHW had net outflows of 16.50 million USD, 15.55 million USD, and 6.64 million USD respectively for the week;

However, BlackRock's ETHB had a net inflow of 141 million USD, making it the only ETH ETF with a net inflow this week;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 11.32 billion USD, accounting for 4.72% of Ethereum's total market value, with a cumulative net inflow of 11.52 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

US media reports that the US military is preparing for a ground invasion of Iran, with Bitcoin showing muted reactions over the weekend.

According to market news, the US has begun preparations this week for a possible ground invasion of Iran that could last up to two months.

Reports indicate that the Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 additional troops to the region, which could deliver a 'devastating blow' to Iran.

Additionally, the Kobeissi Letter, citing The Washington Post, reported and posted on X that such invasions would involve joint raids by special operations forces and conventional infantry units.

Currently, internal discussions are focused on two key operational directions. First, whether to seize Khark Island, which is a pillar of Iran's oil infrastructure; secondly, whether to conduct raids on other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz.

The report also notes that President Trump has recently alternated between declaring that 'the war is about to end' and signaling that the situation 'could escalate,' highlighting his indecision in the final decision-making process.

Historical data shows that during US-Iran military conflicts, Bitcoin prices often fluctuate more dramatically during the weekend, before traditional financial markets open;

However, as of the time of writing, Bitcoin prices have remained around $66,500, showing steady overall movement without significant volatility due to the aforementioned news.

Analysts believe that the market may still be in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting clearer developments in the situation next week, at which point there may be a more definite reaction in price trends.

#US military prepares for ground invasion

Zhou Hongyi: Tokens will never be like mobile data with unlimited monthly plans

Recently, Zhou Hongyi, the founder of 360 Group, shared his insights on the recent trend of large models and the operating model of the popular "lobster craze" (OpenClaw intelligent agent).

Zhou Hongyi stated that Tokens (the basic units of model computation) will never achieve "unlimited monthly usage" like mobile data. The essence of Tokens determines that they cannot be supplied at low cost and without restrictions like communication data.

Zhou Hongyi pointed out that each inference and generation of a large model comes with high computational costs, including computing power consumption, electricity costs, and infrastructure investment, which fundamentally differs from the pricing model of mobile data based on communication infrastructure;

Specifically, even though technological advancements and economies of scale may lead to a continuous decline in the unit cost of Tokens, the characteristics of Tokens determine that business models similar to "unlimited monthly usage" of mobile data are not applicable here.

He further explained that the future pricing model for Tokens will likely resemble water and electricity billing, charging fees based on actual usage; that is, the more you use, the higher the fees you pay;

This indicates that for large models to achieve widespread adoption, the key lies in continuously improving computational efficiency and constantly reducing computing power costs, rather than relying on launching "unlimited plans" to attract users and promote growth.

Overall, Zhou Hongyi's views have also prompted the industry to reconsider the commercialization path of AI. In the context of persistently high computing costs, how to balance user experience and enterprise costs has become one of the key challenges for the application of large models.

#周鸿祎 #AI大模型

The cumulative total net outflow of the US BTC and ETH spot ETFs reached nearly $274 million on Friday.

On March 28, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the US BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $225 million yesterday, marking the third consecutive day of total net outflow this week; and there was no BTC ETF with net inflow on that day;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT had the highest net outflow of nearly $202 million (approximately 3,060 BTC) yesterday, while the cumulative total net inflow of IBIT is $63.1 billion;

Following that, Bitwise BITB and Ark & 21Shares ARKB recorded net outflows of $18.6 million (282.42 BTC) and $5.35 million (81.30 BTC) respectively on a single day;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $84.77 billion, accounting for 6.42% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of $55.93 billion.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $48.54 million, marking a total net outflow for 8 consecutive days;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA had the highest net outflow of $70.80 million (35,640 ETH) yesterday, while the cumulative total net inflow of ETHA is $11.63 billion;

Following that, Fidelity's FETH and Grayscale's ETH recorded net outflows of $8.92 million (4,490 ETH) and $8.68 million (4,370 ETH) respectively on a single day;

However, BlackRock's ETHB had a net inflow of $39.86 million (20,060 ETH), making it the only ETH ETF with net inflow yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $11.32 billion, accounting for 4.72% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of $11.52 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

David Sacks completed his 130-day term and left: The "CLARITY Act" remains unresolved, raising industry concerns about policy outcomes

On March 28, David Sacks, the U.S. government's special advisor on artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency, officially concluded his term and departed. This veteran Silicon Valley investor only served for 130 days, reaching the legal service limit for the position.

It is noteworthy that Sacks's departure coincides with several key pieces of legislation remaining unresolved, which has sparked widespread skepticism in the industry regarding the effectiveness of his policies.

Specifically, during his time as a special government employee, Sacks not only failed to advance comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation like the "CLARITY Act" through Congress, but a formal regulatory framework for AI companies has also yet to be established.

In this situation, practitioners and observers in the cryptocurrency field reacted particularly strongly, beginning to reassess the gap between initial expectations for the policies and the actual policies that were produced.

An anonymous commentator, "Tuki," stated that during Sacks's 130-day term, progress on cryptocurrency and AI policies was minimal, and the anticipated clarity in regulation did not materialize. Therefore, public sentiment about his experience in the White House was understandably one of disappointment.

However, there were indeed some policy advancements during Sacks's term. He not only helped facilitate the passage of the "GENIUS Act," a piece of stablecoin legislation, but also played a role in the policy formulation of several early digital asset initiatives.

These included an executive order banning the development of central bank digital currencies and the establishment of a White House working group to coordinate cryptocurrency policies, although the subsequent cryptocurrency market structure bill, the "CLARITY Act," has been repeatedly delayed due to partisan politics and industry concerns.

It is worth noting that although Sacks's term has ended, he will transition to co-chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), enabling him to provide advice in a broader technological field, not limited to AI and cryptocurrency.

In summary, as Sacks transitions to an advisory role, the ultimate effectiveness of advancing digital asset policy will still depend on whether his successor can find a balance between partisan maneuvering and industry demands.

#CLARITY Act

Are investors selling gold to invest in Bitcoin? Analysts reveal that market signals are still unclear

This year, gold has experienced its most severe decline since February 1920, with prices falling over 25% from January's peak. During this time, the price of Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, raising market speculation about whether investors are selling gold to invest in Bitcoin.

However, cryptocurrency analyst Darkfost points out that the prevailing notion in the market that 'funds are shifting from gold to Bitcoin' lacks clear evidence.

According to his analytical framework, a clear rotation signal depends on a significant divergence between the two assets: Bitcoin needs to return to the 180-day moving average, while gold must fall below that trend line.

Currently, both assets are below this critical threshold, indicating a 'negative signal' in the market overall; this means funds are not significantly flowing from gold into Bitcoin, but rather both markets are simultaneously in a weak or consolidating phase.

The analyst also warned that this interpretation is merely an inference, as it is still difficult to determine whether funds previously allocated to gold-related positions are now flowing into the Bitcoin market.

However, not all market participants deny this rotation trend. Some viewpoints suggest that the seemingly mild rotation could evolve into a larger structural change over time. If funds eventually shift from gold to Bitcoin, it could become one of the largest asset reallocations in history.

In summary, despite both assets currently being in a weak state, indicating that true capital rotation has not yet formed, the market does not completely rule out the possibility of this capital rotation. If a structural capital transfer occurs in the future, Bitcoin may encounter a historic opportunity.

Do you think there will be a large-scale capital rotation between gold and Bitcoin? Leave your opinions and viewpoints in the comments!

#比特币 #黄金

Securities Lawyer: SEC's New Rules Have Not Addressed Core Issues, Strict Liability Risks Remain for Crypto Projects

According to crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, multiple securities lawyers have expressed concerns about the SEC's latest guidance on how federal securities laws apply to crypto assets.

The lawyers pointed out that this guidance has significant subjectivity in determining when token investment contracts terminate, and some key issues remain unresolved.

Lawyers also emphasized that this ambiguity carries substantial risks because violations of securities laws typically fall under strict liability standards; once regulatory agencies later determine that the investment contract relationship of tokens has not terminated, project parties must bear liability for violations even if they are not at fault.

In response to this criticism, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated in an interview that as time goes on and more market participants enter, the clarity around regulatory oversight of investment contracts will gradually become clearer.

In summary, although the regulatory guidance jointly issued by the SEC and CFTC previously classified 16 tokens including Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities, the criteria for determining when investment contracts "end" remain unclear.

This uncertainty also means that project parties can only negotiate with regulatory agencies through specific cases to seek a relatively balanced solution in negotiations.

#SEC #合规风险

US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a cumulative net outflow of nearly $264 million on Thursday.

On March 27, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $171 million yesterday, marking the second day of net outflow this week; and there was no net inflow for any BTC ETF on that day;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT and Bitwise BITB recorded single-day net outflows of $41.92 million (612.15 BTC) and $33.10 million (483.38 BTC), respectively;

Next, Fidelity's FBTC and Ark & 21Shares ARKB recorded single-day net outflows of $32.81 million (479.15 BTC) and $30.45 million (444.68 BTC), respectively;

Grayscale's GBTC and BTC, as well as VanEck HODL, recorded single-day net outflows of $25.06 million (365.94 BTC), $5.45 million (79.62 BTC), and $2.42 million (35.35 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $88.36 billion, accounting for 6.40% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $56.16 billion.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $92.54 million, marking a continuous seven-day net outflow;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA had the largest net outflow yesterday at $140 million (68,570 ETH), and the current cumulative net inflow for ETHA is $11.70 billion;

Next, Fidelity's FETH and Grayscale's ETHE recorded single-day net outflows of $23.95 million (11,710 ETH) and $13.83 million (6,760 ETH), respectively;

Grayscale's ETH and Bitwise ETHW recorded single-day net outflows of $6.21 million (3,030 ETH) and $5.12 million (2,500 ETH), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $11.70 billion, accounting for 4.70% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.57 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Michael Saylor proposed the vision of 'digital credit', stating that Bitcoin will build a new financial ecosystem in three layers.

Recently, Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor delivered a keynote speech, proposing that the next development stage of cryptocurrency will be digital credit, meaning the market needs to create a new financial ecosystem based on Bitcoin as the underlying asset.

Saylor described a three-layer structure for digital finance: the first layer is 'digital capital', which is Bitcoin itself, serving as the cornerstone and underlying asset of the entire ecosystem, supporting the operation of the whole system.

The second layer is 'digital equity', referring to financial products issued with Bitcoin as the underlying asset, such as the perpetual preferred stock STRC issued by Strategy. The aim is to reduce the risks and volatility of directly holding Bitcoin while achieving a stable annual return of over 10%.

The third layer is 'digital credit', referring to stablecoins and payment tools issued based on financial products from the second layer. For example, some companies have launched anchor stablecoins, whose value is supported by U.S. Treasury bonds as the underlying asset.

Digital equity and digital credit, as financial tools derived from Bitcoin, fundamentally differ from traditional fiat currencies issued based on national credit. This is because the returns of such products and the 'interest' of the currency both originate from the appreciation of Bitcoin's price.

It is noteworthy that since the end of 2025, Saylor has publicly elaborated on this concept multiple times. This also signifies that cryptocurrency is evolving from a purely digital asset to more complex financial engineering products, indicating that the industry is entering a new phase of competition with traditional credit instruments.

In summary, as cryptocurrency evolves from a simple digital asset to complex financial engineering products, we have reason to believe that this emerging field will play an increasingly important role in the traditional financial system.

For investors seeking returns, a tool supported by Bitcoin, with volatility comparable to bonds and a return rate reaching double digits, is opening up a brand new investment model.

#Strategy #数字信贷工具

Bitcoin has formed an ascending wedge pattern, indicating that the market faces downside risks.

On March 27, according to crypto analyst Peter Brandt's latest technical analysis, the Bitcoin price chart has formed an ascending wedge pattern, which is typically viewed as a bearish signal, suggesting that the market may face the risk of a downside breakout.

From the trend image provided, Bitcoin rebounded after hitting a low of about $60,000 in January, and rose to about $71,000 in March;

Subsequently, the BTC price trend formed a wedge technical pattern with converging upper and lower bounds, and the price fluctuation range has also been narrowing. Currently, the Bitcoin price is oscillating in the range of $65,000 - $70,000 and is in the latter part of this wedge technical pattern.

Overall, the ascending wedge pattern in technical analysis usually signifies a weakening of upward momentum. Once the price breaks downward through the lower bound of the wedge, it may trigger a significant adjustment.

Market participants should closely monitor Bitcoin's subsequent performance, especially whether it can effectively break through the upper or lower bounds of the wedge, as these two key points will determine the short-term price direction and risk level, providing important guidance for investment decisions.

#Bitcoin forms bearish wedge

Bitcoin shows resilience around the $70,000 mark, maintaining a cautious consolidation under geopolitical pressure

According to QCP Mark's latest market analysis, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $70,000, with price movements exhibiting a stable consolidation rather than violent fluctuations.

The analysis suggests that although the macroeconomic environment, such as the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, has somewhat suppressed market risk sentiment.

Even though oil prices have retreated from this week's highs and carry significant geopolitical premiums, Bitcoin has still demonstrated particularly outstanding resilience in this complex backdrop.

Recent funding data indicates that, despite Bitcoin showing a net outflow of funds, the outflows are primarily from trading platforms rather than from sell orders. At the same time, Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio continues to rise, further highlighting the relative defensive advantages of cryptocurrencies.

From a broader perspective, risk assets have somewhat digested the impacts of rising oil prices and the repricing of interest rates. However, if geopolitical tensions persist, the extent of their damage to economic growth remains uncertain.

Although Bitcoin has not yet attracted a continuous inflow of safe-haven funds, it no longer acts as a high-risk alternative like stocks. Currently, Bitcoin's market movements are more driven by news headlines, lacking clear directional characteristics.

In the options market, the overall tendency remains defensive. Both intraday and weekly implied prices have decreased, with hedging being positive, and the futures curve maintaining a slight futures premium.

While the demand for hedging against downside risks continues to exist, it has not yet reached extreme levels, and volatility remains influenced by geopolitical premiums, reflecting a market that is relatively cautious rather than panic-driven.

Currently, Bitcoin exhibits trading characteristics of 'buying on dips, slowing down chasing'. Simply put, prices remain stable within a range, with movements orderly and robust, and the market direction is still dominated by macroeconomic factors.

In summary, before the geopolitical situation stabilizes or the macroeconomic repricing becomes clearer, the Bitcoin market is likely to remain in a range-bound oscillation driven by news events rather than a clear trend commencement.

#比特币 #市场情绪

Analyst: Bitcoin's 'mining cost' drops below $50,000, may bottom out at $46,000

With the continuous decline in mining electricity costs, market analysts believe that the bottom price of Bitcoin may be gradually decreasing.

According to analyst Ted Pillows, the estimated electricity cost to mine one Bitcoin has fallen below $50,000, and may further decline to $45,000.

Analysts believe that if the price of Bitcoin falls below $50,000, it may bottom out in the range of $46,000 to $48,000, which also aligns with the low point in August 2024.

Currently, traders on the prediction market Kalshi also hold similar views. Most orders expect Bitcoin to drop to $48,000 by the end of the year, which almost completely aligns with Pillows' prediction.

In simple terms, from the perspective of mining economics, various signs indicate that the lower limit of Bitcoin's price may be decreasing.

However, not everyone is bearish. Analyst Ali Martinez has identified a 'right-angle descending expanding wedge' pattern in the one-hour chart of Bitcoin, which is often interpreted as a bullish reversal signal. Therefore, he sets the next target price at $75,700.

Meanwhile, trader Merlijn The Trader pointed out that the price of Bitcoin has touched the 'DCA zone' on the rainbow chart for the fourth time, an area that has historically been associated with long-term accumulation periods, with significant price increases following the previous three touches.

In summary, given the current situation, traders believe that the market is caught in contradictory signals, with both mining cost and prediction market perspectives suggesting that BTC price may be more likely to decline; while chart patterns indicate another possibility of market recovery.

On one side, declining mining costs suggest bearishness, while on the other side, technical patterns suggest bullishness. Do you favor the $46,000 bottom or chasing highs at $75,000? Let's discuss your judgment in the comments!

#比特币

The UK plans to ban political cryptocurrency donations to maintain electoral fairness

According to GOV.UK, the UK government has announced plans to ban political party members from accepting cryptocurrency donations to "protect" the democratic process and electoral fairness.

It is reported that this move aims to fill potential gaps in funding traceability, transparency, and foreign or illegal interference.

Given the decentralized and anonymous nature of cryptocurrencies, they are becoming increasingly popular in global finance, but this also poses significant challenges for regulators;

because in the context of political donations, ensuring the traceability and transparency of funding sources is difficult, leaving room for infiltration by foreign powers or illegal funds.

Specifically, traditional donation rules rely on the identification and qualification review of donors, while the characteristics of cryptocurrencies can bypass these barriers. By banning such donations, UK authorities aim to close regulatory loopholes in election laws.

However, some critics argue that a blanket ban may stifle legitimate applications of digital assets. Nevertheless, the government has not completely closed the door, stating that this ban may only be a temporary measure, and if future regulatory frameworks improve, they will reconsider whether to lift the ban.

In summary, the UK plans to issue a ban on political donations in cryptocurrency, ostensibly to plug loopholes, but in reality, it is a "declaration of war" against the anonymity of cryptocurrencies. This move indicates that in political donations, funding must be transparent and traceable, otherwise, the democratic process loses its foundation.

The core of this game is not the technology itself, but how to define the bottom line of transparency regulatory rules. The UK government is attempting to close this door first, and when to reopen a window still depends on whether regulators can keep pace with the evolution of blockchain technology.

#政治捐赠禁令

The US BTC spot ETF attracted $7.81 million on Wednesday, while the ETH ETF saw a total net outflow of $8.51 million in a single day.

On March 26, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of $7.81 million yesterday, marking the second day of inflows this week;

Among them, Fidelity's FBTC became the only BTC ETF with a net inflow yesterday, totaling $83.34 million (approximately 1,180 BTC);

In contrast, BlackRock's IBIT and Ark 21Shares ARKB saw net outflows of $70.71 million (997.60 BTC) and $4.82 million (68.03 BTC) respectively in a single day;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $91.63 billion, accounting for 6.45% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $56.33 billion.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of $8.51 million, marking six consecutive days of outflows;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA became the only Ethereum ETF with a net outflow yesterday, totaling $33.42 million (approximately 15,410 ETH), with a cumulative net inflow of $11.84 billion;

Meanwhile, Fidelity's FETH and BlackRock's ETHB had net inflows of $23.80 million (approximately 10,970 ETH) and $1.12 million (514.46 ETH) respectively in a single day;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $12.51 billion, accounting for 4.78% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.66 billion.

#BitcoinETF

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin institutional demand is being monopolized by a single player

According to the latest X post analysis released by CryptoQuant, the demand for Bitcoin reserves is showing a highly concentrated characteristic, currently driven entirely by Strategy.

The analysis points out that in the past 30 days, Strategy has accumulated about 45,000 Bitcoins, while other Bitcoin treasury companies' purchases during the same period were only about 1,000, indicating a continuous decline in participation from other players.

From a market structure perspective, the current Bitcoin treasury company Strategy holds about 76% of the Bitcoins, and this highly concentrated holding situation means the market lacks broad institutional demand support.

The high concentration of Bitcoin reserve demand has also increased the market's dependence on a few large traders, which may affect the stability of Bitcoin prices and market liquidity.

Another post and chart from CryptoQuant also visually demonstrate this trend. Single buyer market data shows that Bitcoin reserve activities have sharply declined since October 2025, reflecting that the current market structure properties are undergoing fundamental changes.

Overall, the current Bitcoin market price is at a critical turning point, and the changes in market structure and highly concentrated characteristics of Bitcoin reserve demand are reshaping the entire supply and demand pattern and price discovery mechanism of the market.

This trend not only changes the traditional market participation model but also indicates that future price formation will rely more on a few key players. In the future, breaking the monopoly and attracting more diversified institutional participation will become key to achieving balanced development in the industry.

#Bitcoin

CFTC Chairman: The 'Return' of Crypto Perpetual Futures to the U.S. is a Key Part of Innovative Policy

On March 26, according to a post from Cointelegraph, the Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Michael Selig, stated that bringing 'real' cryptocurrency perpetual futures back to the U.S. is a key component of the agency's innovative policy agenda, a statement that quickly sparked market discussions.

The market reacted positively, with several industry professionals believing that if the U.S. successfully localizes the perpetual futures market, it could lead to the return of tens of trillions of dollars in offshore liquidity currently stranded abroad, helping the U.S. become a global liquidity center for crypto derivatives.

Moreover, if U.S. domestic perpetual contracts can be successfully implemented, it is expected to not only reduce regulatory gray areas but also help curb market chaos such as wash trading and false quotes in order books.

However, some opinions have cautioned that if the U.S. implements strict contract leverage limits, it may create competitive dynamics with offshore platforms offering leverage products of up to 125 times. In this case, how retail users will choose remains uncertain and requires further observation.

Overall, the CFTC's push for the localization of crypto perpetual futures marks an important step for the U.S. in the regulation of crypto derivatives, and this move is expected to strengthen market norms and lay a new foundation for industry development.

In any case, the process of bringing crypto perpetual futures trading 'back' to the U.S. has already begun. As pricing power gradually tilts towards the U.S., the existing landscape of the global crypto derivatives market may soon open a new chapter.

#CFTC #永续合约

The U.S. Congressional hearing focuses on tokenization: SEC plans to push for an innovation exemption, lawmakers call for a balance between innovation and investor protection

On March 26, as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) prepares to launch its tokenized securities innovation exemption program, lawmakers have raised widespread concerns about the balance between innovation and investor protection.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins revealed that the agency will soon seek public input on future rule-making, which includes a proposed innovation exemption that could become a regulatory sandbox for on-chain assets.

Additionally, according to the latest post from crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, Paul Atkins stated that the long-anticipated tokenization innovation exemption may be introduced in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee recently held a hearing themed "Tokenization and the Future of Securities: Modernizing Capital Markets," reflecting the traditional financial market's accelerated move towards tokenization.

Republican representatives at the hearing stated that the tokenization of securities is an inevitable trend, and the U.S. needs to lead this process while protecting investors.

However, Democratic representatives expressed concerns that the innovation exemption opens a backdoor for blockchain securities to bypass core regulations, potentially creating a "two-tier market."

In summary, as crypto companies and traditional financial institutions rush to promote the listing of tokenized securities, lawmakers generally recognize that this trend is irreversible.

In this context, how to achieve effective protection for investors while balancing financial innovation has become a key issue that lawmakers urgently need to address.

This not only tests the wisdom and decision-making ability of lawmakers but also relates to the future direction of the financial market.

Only by finding the balance between the two can the emerging field of tokenized securities advance financial progress while effectively safeguarding investors' rights.

#SEC #代币化证券

ECB President Lagarde: The central bank has a "package of options" to respond to potential energy inflation shocks

On March 25, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that in the face of the energy crisis triggered by the Iran war, the ECB has various policy options to address potential inflation shocks, with specific measures to be adjusted based on the scale and duration of the shocks.

Lagarde emphasized that #欧洲央行 will not "be paralyzed by indecision," and that they are prepared with "a series of gradual response plans" in monetary policy, although she did not reveal specific implementation details.

She further stated that the central bank would not hastily take action until it has sufficient information regarding the scale, duration, and transmission paths of the shocks. Currently, the ECB is maintaining existing interest rates.

Meanwhile, the central bank is committed to making every effort to keep the inflation rate at the target level of 2%, and this commitment is "unconditional." Even if oil and gas prices continue to rise significantly, the central bank will adhere to this target.

Last week, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged and released a series of economic scenarios, indicating that inflation risks do not develop linearly but rather show that the longer the shocks last and the greater their intensity, the faster prices and wages rise.

Analysts point out that for smaller, short-lived, and one-time supply shocks, the central bank can temporarily ignore them; however, if the deviation of inflation expectations from the target level intensifies and lasts longer, the necessity for corresponding actions will increase.

Lagarde admitted that although monetary policy is unable to directly lower energy prices, the ECB will closely monitor whether the current rise in oil and gas prices will trigger a "general inflation" situation.

She specifically mentioned that the impact of the #通胀 shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 has "left a deep imprint" in the economic field. It is this experience that keeps the ECB highly vigilant in the face of the current situation.

However, at the beginning of 2022, driven by strong demand and supply shortages post-pandemic, the inflation rate had reached 5%. Today, moderate economic recovery, tightened fiscal policy, and nearly 2% interest rates have helped suppress inflation.

BlackRock CEO Warns: If Oil Prices Reach $150, It Will Trigger a Global Recession

Recently, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated in an exclusive interview with the BBC that if the threats from Iran continue, and oil prices remain high and rise to $150 per barrel, it may trigger a global economic recession.

As the head of the world's largest asset management company, Larry Fink manages an asset size of $14 trillion. This asset management experience also gives him a unique insight into the health of the global economy.

He pointed out that the current conflicts in the Middle East have already caused significant volatility in the financial markets. In this situation, investors are trying to accurately assess the future trends of energy costs to make rational investment decisions.

Fink predicts that the current situation will lead to two extremes: if the conflict is resolved and Iran reintegrates into the international community, oil prices may return to pre-war levels;

But if the situation is the opposite, there may be a scenario of "oil prices exceeding $100 for several years, approaching $150," which could lead to a "severe and rapid economic recession."

Regarding energy policy, Fink believes that providing cheap energy is key to driving economic growth and improving living standards. Therefore, he suggests that countries should adopt a pragmatic approach to their energy mix and fully explore and utilize all available energy sources.

Fink also issued a warning, emphasizing that "rising energy prices are tantamount to an extremely unfair tax." This means that compared to the wealthy, the poor will be hit harder by rising energy prices.

In response to some market analysts who believe that the current market shows signs similar to those before the outbreak of the 2007-08 financial crisis, Fink firmly believes that the trauma of the financial crisis will not be repeated.

When discussing the impact of AI on the job market, he refuted claims of an AI investment bubble. He believes that competition in AI technology will create a large number of job opportunities, especially for skilled trades such as electricians, welders, and plumbers.

Therefore, he believes that society needs to rebalance the excessive emphasis on university education and provide more recognition and development space for vocational technical colleges.

He also emphasized that the biggest obstacle to AI development is the issue of energy costs, which includes solar and nuclear energy. If we do not increase investment to catch up, China will win in the field of artificial intelligence.

#贝莱德 #Crude Oil Prices