小龙先生
自然交易理论传承者，比特币行情分析师，建立了自然交易理论 、链上数据 和量价关系 的三维一体交易体系。梦想之一是做一名专业行情分析师和交易者，帮助更多小伙伴准确把握行情赚到钱。特别提醒：如果你不同意我分享的BTC行情预判和观点，你可以发表自己的观点，但不要对我进行人身攻击和诋毁谩骂，否则显得你的素质很差。
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《A Good Opportunity for Grassroots Comeback? Let You See Through Bitcoin's Bull and Bear for the Next Year, Grasp Trend Opportunities to Make Big Money》
Currently, Bitcoin is in a bear market, which has become a consensus among the public and institutions. I had already predicted on November 14, 2025, that Bitcoin would enter a bear market, and I provided the target price for Bitcoin's decline and its probability. At that time, I estimated the probability of Bitcoin's price dropping to around 58,000 to be 65%. Currently, the lowest spot price is 60,000, which is 2,000 points away from the predicted low. Interested friends can check the screenshot of that tweet:
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
A new week, a new day, BTC is eager to break down!
The weekly level 5 wave down pattern is already very clear, and it is certain that the Bitcoin price has broken below the 48-day upward trend line; breaking six and rushing to four is just a matter of time!
Give up on fantasies, the deep bear market has not arrived, and a sharp decline is imminent! Any rebound is just a paper tiger and a dead cat bounce! The main strategy is to short at highs, hold onto your short positions, set stop-losses, and wait for the arrival of the subsequent unilateral downward trend market!
The weekly level 5 wave down pattern is already very clear, and it is certain that the Bitcoin price has broken below the 48-day upward trend line; breaking six and rushing to four is just a matter of time!
Give up on fantasies, the deep bear market has not arrived, and a sharp decline is imminent! Any rebound is just a paper tiger and a dead cat bounce! The main strategy is to short at highs, hold onto your short positions, set stop-losses, and wait for the arrival of the subsequent unilateral downward trend market!
Bitcoin Market Weekly Report: Weak rebound over the weekend, beware of a potential crash in the new week!
Figure 1 shows that the price has broken below the lower boundary of the 48-day rising trend line and the rising channel's oscillation structure, which is Phase 1; the weak rebound over the weekend confirms this as Phase 2; the likelihood of a significant crash coming next is Phase 3. This is a classic price 123 breakout pattern;
Figure 2 indicates that institutional net outflows of spot ETH last week amounted to 220 million USD. Although this isn't much, it has ended four consecutive weeks of net inflows. In fact, the total net inflow from the previous four weeks was also not substantial, as ETF institutions have started to retreat and defend;
Figure 3 shows that on the daily chart, the price has clearly entered a medium-term downtrend, and it has confirmed breaking below the 48-day rising trend line. Coupled with the MACD's high-level death cross, this is a very important bearish signal. Currently, sideways oscillation and weak rebounds are occurring, and if there are any disturbances next week, it will accelerate a significant price drop;
Figure 4 indicates that the weekly close is not optimistic either, with an estimate of two consecutive weeks forming a shooting star
🔨
bearish candlestick. The pressure from above is immense; how can there be any rebound? Various data from the United States in early April are expected to be poor, which will be bearish; coupled with the escalating Middle Eastern conflict, it truly adds insult to injury!
Don't miss any crisis! Where there is danger, there is opportunity. Bitcoin is entering a bear market, and choosing to short at high positions is also a chance to make money! Contract trading is a double-edged sword that requires careful honing and continuous learning to turn it into a sword that benefits one's own profits!
Figure 1 shows that the price has broken below the lower boundary of the 48-day rising trend line and the rising channel's oscillation structure, which is Phase 1; the weak rebound over the weekend confirms this as Phase 2; the likelihood of a significant crash coming next is Phase 3. This is a classic price 123 breakout pattern;
Figure 2 indicates that institutional net outflows of spot ETH last week amounted to 220 million USD. Although this isn't much, it has ended four consecutive weeks of net inflows. In fact, the total net inflow from the previous four weeks was also not substantial, as ETF institutions have started to retreat and defend;
Figure 3 shows that on the daily chart, the price has clearly entered a medium-term downtrend, and it has confirmed breaking below the 48-day rising trend line. Coupled with the MACD's high-level death cross, this is a very important bearish signal. Currently, sideways oscillation and weak rebounds are occurring, and if there are any disturbances next week, it will accelerate a significant price drop;
Figure 4 indicates that the weekly close is not optimistic either, with an estimate of two consecutive weeks forming a shooting star
🔨
bearish candlestick. The pressure from above is immense; how can there be any rebound? Various data from the United States in early April are expected to be poor, which will be bearish; coupled with the escalating Middle Eastern conflict, it truly adds insult to injury!
Don't miss any crisis! Where there is danger, there is opportunity. Bitcoin is entering a bear market, and choosing to short at high positions is also a chance to make money! Contract trading is a double-edged sword that requires careful honing and continuous learning to turn it into a sword that benefits one's own profits!
Bitcoin Market Weekly Report: Weak rebound over the weekend, beware of a potential crash in the new week!
Figure 1 shows that the price has broken below the lower boundary of the 48-day rising trend line and the rising channel's oscillation structure, which is Phase 1; the weak rebound over the weekend confirms this as Phase 2; the likelihood of a significant crash coming next is Phase 3. This is a classic price 123 breakout pattern;
Figure 2 indicates that institutional net outflows of spot ETH last week amounted to 220 million USD. Although this isn't much, it has ended four consecutive weeks of net inflows. In fact, the total net inflow from the previous four weeks was also not substantial, as ETF institutions have started to retreat and defend;
Figure 3 shows that on the daily chart, the price has clearly entered a medium-term downtrend, and it has confirmed breaking below the 48-day rising trend line. Coupled with the MACD's high-level death cross, this is a very important bearish signal. Currently, sideways oscillation and weak rebounds are occurring, and if there are any disturbances next week, it will accelerate a significant price drop;
Figure 4 indicates that the weekly close is not optimistic either, with an estimate of two consecutive weeks forming a shooting star
🔨
bearish candlestick. The pressure from above is immense; how can there be any rebound? Various data from the United States in early April are expected to be poor, which will be bearish; coupled with the escalating Middle Eastern conflict, it truly adds insult to injury!
Don't miss any crisis! Where there is danger, there is opportunity. Bitcoin is entering a bear market, and choosing to short at high positions is also a chance to make money! Contract trading is a double-edged sword that requires careful honing and continuous learning to turn it into a sword that benefits one's own profits!
Figure 1 shows that the price has broken below the lower boundary of the 48-day rising trend line and the rising channel's oscillation structure, which is Phase 1; the weak rebound over the weekend confirms this as Phase 2; the likelihood of a significant crash coming next is Phase 3. This is a classic price 123 breakout pattern;
Figure 2 indicates that institutional net outflows of spot ETH last week amounted to 220 million USD. Although this isn't much, it has ended four consecutive weeks of net inflows. In fact, the total net inflow from the previous four weeks was also not substantial, as ETF institutions have started to retreat and defend;
Figure 3 shows that on the daily chart, the price has clearly entered a medium-term downtrend, and it has confirmed breaking below the 48-day rising trend line. Coupled with the MACD's high-level death cross, this is a very important bearish signal. Currently, sideways oscillation and weak rebounds are occurring, and if there are any disturbances next week, it will accelerate a significant price drop;
Figure 4 indicates that the weekly close is not optimistic either, with an estimate of two consecutive weeks forming a shooting star
🔨
bearish candlestick. The pressure from above is immense; how can there be any rebound? Various data from the United States in early April are expected to be poor, which will be bearish; coupled with the escalating Middle Eastern conflict, it truly adds insult to injury!
Don't miss any crisis! Where there is danger, there is opportunity. Bitcoin is entering a bear market, and choosing to short at high positions is also a chance to make money! Contract trading is a double-edged sword that requires careful honing and continuous learning to turn it into a sword that benefits one's own profits!
Starting this week, we may witness BTC choosing one of the three price trends as follows. I believe the probability of BTC choosing the first and second options is higher, over 50%, especially the second trend, breaking the norm and catching the bulls off guard, plunging into the abyss and unveiling the veil of the deep bears.
BTC A new week and the forecast of three price trends for the following weeks
Trend One: The yellow price trend forecast, at the beginning of next week, the price will slightly oscillate around the lower boundary of the green upward channel near 68,000, consolidating and weakly rebounding for two to three days.
The rebound peak is around 71,000, then it breaks below the lower boundary of the upward channel and falls below 65,000, heading straight for around 60,000, then continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend is more in line with common sense and market expectations, with a probability of 50%;
Trend Two: The red price trend forecast, the price directly breaks below the lower boundary of the upward channel near 68,000 on the first day of the new week and falls below 65,000, heading straight for around 60,000, then continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend is quite aggressive, with a probability of 50%;
Trend Three: The blue price trend forecast, at the beginning of the new week, the price falls to the lower boundary of the upward channel near 68,000 and then starts to rebound, with the rebound peak below 74,000, then surges and falls back while oscillating downwards, breaking the lower boundary of the upward channel, falling below 65,000, then heading straight for around 60,000, and continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend starts off relatively mild, but will become exceptionally fierce later, with a probability of 30%.
Considering the situation in the international financial markets and the war among the three countries in the Middle East, along with on-chain data and the fluctuations in long and short positions, I believe the probability of BTC choosing the second trend is relatively high, as this trend is somewhat unexpected and breaks expectations, with a direct breakdown causing the market to be caught off guard. Which trend do you think aligns better with the market's rhythm?
Regardless of which trend BTC ultimately chooses from the above forecasts, the outcome will be the same, the fourth wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level will end, and then the fifth wave mid-line downward trend will commence, breaking 40,000 and probing the bottom, entering a deep bear market to build a base. Let us witness the terrifying moments of this bear market together.
Trend One: The yellow price trend forecast, at the beginning of next week, the price will slightly oscillate around the lower boundary of the green upward channel near 68,000, consolidating and weakly rebounding for two to three days.
The rebound peak is around 71,000, then it breaks below the lower boundary of the upward channel and falls below 65,000, heading straight for around 60,000, then continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend is more in line with common sense and market expectations, with a probability of 50%;
Trend Two: The red price trend forecast, the price directly breaks below the lower boundary of the upward channel near 68,000 on the first day of the new week and falls below 65,000, heading straight for around 60,000, then continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend is quite aggressive, with a probability of 50%;
Trend Three: The blue price trend forecast, at the beginning of the new week, the price falls to the lower boundary of the upward channel near 68,000 and then starts to rebound, with the rebound peak below 74,000, then surges and falls back while oscillating downwards, breaking the lower boundary of the upward channel, falling below 65,000, then heading straight for around 60,000, and continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend starts off relatively mild, but will become exceptionally fierce later, with a probability of 30%.
Considering the situation in the international financial markets and the war among the three countries in the Middle East, along with on-chain data and the fluctuations in long and short positions, I believe the probability of BTC choosing the second trend is relatively high, as this trend is somewhat unexpected and breaks expectations, with a direct breakdown causing the market to be caught off guard. Which trend do you think aligns better with the market's rhythm?
Regardless of which trend BTC ultimately chooses from the above forecasts, the outcome will be the same, the fourth wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level will end, and then the fifth wave mid-line downward trend will commence, breaking 40,000 and probing the bottom, entering a deep bear market to build a base. Let us witness the terrifying moments of this bear market together.
BTC A new week and the forecast of three price trends for the following weeks
Trend One: The yellow price trend forecast, at the beginning of next week, the price will slightly oscillate around the lower boundary of the green upward channel near 68,000, consolidating and weakly rebounding for two to three days.
The rebound peak is around 71,000, then it breaks below the lower boundary of the upward channel and falls below 65,000, heading straight for around 60,000, then continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend is more in line with common sense and market expectations, with a probability of 50%;
Trend Two: The red price trend forecast, the price directly breaks below the lower boundary of the upward channel near 68,000 on the first day of the new week and falls below 65,000, heading straight for around 60,000, then continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend is quite aggressive, with a probability of 50%;
Trend Three: The blue price trend forecast, at the beginning of the new week, the price falls to the lower boundary of the upward channel near 68,000 and then starts to rebound, with the rebound peak below 74,000, then surges and falls back while oscillating downwards, breaking the lower boundary of the upward channel, falling below 65,000, then heading straight for around 60,000, and continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend starts off relatively mild, but will become exceptionally fierce later, with a probability of 30%.
Considering the situation in the international financial markets and the war among the three countries in the Middle East, along with on-chain data and the fluctuations in long and short positions, I believe the probability of BTC choosing the second trend is relatively high, as this trend is somewhat unexpected and breaks expectations, with a direct breakdown causing the market to be caught off guard. Which trend do you think aligns better with the market's rhythm?
Regardless of which trend BTC ultimately chooses from the above forecasts, the outcome will be the same, the fourth wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level will end, and then the fifth wave mid-line downward trend will commence, breaking 40,000 and probing the bottom, entering a deep bear market to build a base. Let us witness the terrifying moments of this bear market together.
Trend One: The yellow price trend forecast, at the beginning of next week, the price will slightly oscillate around the lower boundary of the green upward channel near 68,000, consolidating and weakly rebounding for two to three days.
The rebound peak is around 71,000, then it breaks below the lower boundary of the upward channel and falls below 65,000, heading straight for around 60,000, then continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend is more in line with common sense and market expectations, with a probability of 50%;
Trend Two: The red price trend forecast, the price directly breaks below the lower boundary of the upward channel near 68,000 on the first day of the new week and falls below 65,000, heading straight for around 60,000, then continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend is quite aggressive, with a probability of 50%;
Trend Three: The blue price trend forecast, at the beginning of the new week, the price falls to the lower boundary of the upward channel near 68,000 and then starts to rebound, with the rebound peak below 74,000, then surges and falls back while oscillating downwards, breaking the lower boundary of the upward channel, falling below 65,000, then heading straight for around 60,000, and continues to decline and breaks 40,000; this trend starts off relatively mild, but will become exceptionally fierce later, with a probability of 30%.
Considering the situation in the international financial markets and the war among the three countries in the Middle East, along with on-chain data and the fluctuations in long and short positions, I believe the probability of BTC choosing the second trend is relatively high, as this trend is somewhat unexpected and breaks expectations, with a direct breakdown causing the market to be caught off guard. Which trend do you think aligns better with the market's rhythm?
Regardless of which trend BTC ultimately chooses from the above forecasts, the outcome will be the same, the fourth wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level will end, and then the fifth wave mid-line downward trend will commence, breaking 40,000 and probing the bottom, entering a deep bear market to build a base. Let us witness the terrifying moments of this bear market together.
Bitcoin is also busy on Sunday, with prices steadily falling. Is a crash imminent?
Yesterday, I wrote 'Bitcoin Market Weekly Report: The Fluctuation is Approaching the End, and the Medium-Term Downtrend is About to Begin!' and then wrote 'The Bullish Counterattack of BTC is at its Last Breath, the Weekly Level 4 Wave Rebound is Approaching the End.' I have repeatedly reminded that the medium-term downtrend of BTC may have already begun.
If you often follow my analysis and predictions about Bitcoin's market, you wouldn't be surprised by the current price drop, but instead, like me, you would have already laid out medium-term short positions for BTC/ETH, remaining calm and strategic in times of crisis.
If you carefully read my pinned article 'A Good Opportunity for Grassroots Counterattack? Let’s See Through Bitcoin's Bull and Bear Trends for the Next Year, Seizing Opportunities to Make Big Money,' you will have a clearer understanding of the price trends and market rules for Bitcoin in the coming year.
Regarding the medium-term downtrend of BTC, I clearly tell you: the downtrend has quietly begun. The 'boiling frog' effect is for those still expecting Bitcoin to rebound and the bull market to return, while we have already positioned ourselves and are ready to strike down the bears.
Once Bitcoin's price falls below about 65,500, it will break the lower boundary of the ascending channel shown in the image below and form a weekly descending flag structure. The price is likely to accelerate downward, and breaking six to aim for four may become a reality.
Let us wait and see!
Yesterday, I wrote 'Bitcoin Market Weekly Report: The Fluctuation is Approaching the End, and the Medium-Term Downtrend is About to Begin!' and then wrote 'The Bullish Counterattack of BTC is at its Last Breath, the Weekly Level 4 Wave Rebound is Approaching the End.' I have repeatedly reminded that the medium-term downtrend of BTC may have already begun.
If you often follow my analysis and predictions about Bitcoin's market, you wouldn't be surprised by the current price drop, but instead, like me, you would have already laid out medium-term short positions for BTC/ETH, remaining calm and strategic in times of crisis.
If you carefully read my pinned article 'A Good Opportunity for Grassroots Counterattack? Let’s See Through Bitcoin's Bull and Bear Trends for the Next Year, Seizing Opportunities to Make Big Money,' you will have a clearer understanding of the price trends and market rules for Bitcoin in the coming year.
Regarding the medium-term downtrend of BTC, I clearly tell you: the downtrend has quietly begun. The 'boiling frog' effect is for those still expecting Bitcoin to rebound and the bull market to return, while we have already positioned ourselves and are ready to strike down the bears.
Once Bitcoin's price falls below about 65,500, it will break the lower boundary of the ascending channel shown in the image below and form a weekly descending flag structure. The price is likely to accelerate downward, and breaking six to aim for four may become a reality.
Let us wait and see!
Bitcoin Market Weekly: The turbulence is nearing its end, and a medium-term downtrend is about to begin!
According to tradition, let's first look at a set of data:
1) Spot ETF institutions: Last week, there was a net inflow of $95 million, significantly shrinking net inflow funds, which indicates that the current willingness of ETF institutions to buy BTC is not strong. If the price falls below 60,000, it is estimated that ETF institutions will sell BTC in large quantities;
2) On the order book, the large amount of sell orders accumulated a few days ago has caused the BTC price to drop by 6,000 points. In the last two to three days, the amount of buy orders has been relatively small, limiting the potential for price rebounds;
3) On the daily chart, the 4th wave's consolidation has lasted for 43 days, and the upward trend of MACD is beginning to slow down. Once MACD forms a death cross, the dead cat bounce and consolidation of this 4th wave will be declared over. If the price falls below the lower boundary of this ascending channel around 65,000, a downward flag structure will also take shape, and the price will accelerate to around 60,000;
4) The bullish volume fluctuation curve on the four-hour chart has rebounded from 60,000 to 76,000 and now to around 70,000, showing signs of gradually declining bullish volume. The subsequent bullish counterattack is also nearing its end, unless there is significant good news, but it would only be the last struggle of the bulls.
Market summary:
1) The 4th wave rebound and consolidation on the weekly chart are nearing their end. A shift in the medium-term trend direction could happen at any time, possibly as early as next week, but at the latest, it will be delayed until around April 6. However, it will eventually come.
2) Once the price falls below 65,000, it will accelerate to 60,000, and then breaking below 60,000 towards 40,000 could also be seen. The medium-term downtrend for the 5th wave on the weekly chart may have quietly pressed the start button;
3) The war in the three Middle Eastern countries is escalating, with oil and the dollar index rising, while US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are falling. If the Middle Eastern conflict does not ease or reach a ceasefire next week, this situation will continue. The sustained rise in oil prices will exacerbate global inflation and slow down global economic growth. This year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may decrease or even disappear, market liquidity will gradually reduce, and the decline in US stocks and Bitcoin reaching new lows will become inevitable.
According to tradition, let's first look at a set of data:
1) Spot ETF institutions: Last week, there was a net inflow of $95 million, significantly shrinking net inflow funds, which indicates that the current willingness of ETF institutions to buy BTC is not strong. If the price falls below 60,000, it is estimated that ETF institutions will sell BTC in large quantities;
2) On the order book, the large amount of sell orders accumulated a few days ago has caused the BTC price to drop by 6,000 points. In the last two to three days, the amount of buy orders has been relatively small, limiting the potential for price rebounds;
3) On the daily chart, the 4th wave's consolidation has lasted for 43 days, and the upward trend of MACD is beginning to slow down. Once MACD forms a death cross, the dead cat bounce and consolidation of this 4th wave will be declared over. If the price falls below the lower boundary of this ascending channel around 65,000, a downward flag structure will also take shape, and the price will accelerate to around 60,000;
4) The bullish volume fluctuation curve on the four-hour chart has rebounded from 60,000 to 76,000 and now to around 70,000, showing signs of gradually declining bullish volume. The subsequent bullish counterattack is also nearing its end, unless there is significant good news, but it would only be the last struggle of the bulls.
Market summary:
1) The 4th wave rebound and consolidation on the weekly chart are nearing their end. A shift in the medium-term trend direction could happen at any time, possibly as early as next week, but at the latest, it will be delayed until around April 6. However, it will eventually come.
2) Once the price falls below 65,000, it will accelerate to 60,000, and then breaking below 60,000 towards 40,000 could also be seen. The medium-term downtrend for the 5th wave on the weekly chart may have quietly pressed the start button;
3) The war in the three Middle Eastern countries is escalating, with oil and the dollar index rising, while US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are falling. If the Middle Eastern conflict does not ease or reach a ceasefire next week, this situation will continue. The sustained rise in oil prices will exacerbate global inflation and slow down global economic growth. This year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may decrease or even disappear, market liquidity will gradually reduce, and the decline in US stocks and Bitcoin reaching new lows will become inevitable.
Bitcoin Market Weekly: The turbulence is nearing its end, and a medium-term downtrend is about to begin!
According to tradition, let's first look at a set of data:
1) Spot ETF institutions: Last week, there was a net inflow of $95 million, significantly shrinking net inflow funds, which indicates that the current willingness of ETF institutions to buy BTC is not strong. If the price falls below 60,000, it is estimated that ETF institutions will sell BTC in large quantities;
2) On the order book, the large amount of sell orders accumulated a few days ago has caused the BTC price to drop by 6,000 points. In the last two to three days, the amount of buy orders has been relatively small, limiting the potential for price rebounds;
3) On the daily chart, the 4th wave's consolidation has lasted for 43 days, and the upward trend of MACD is beginning to slow down. Once MACD forms a death cross, the dead cat bounce and consolidation of this 4th wave will be declared over. If the price falls below the lower boundary of this ascending channel around 65,000, a downward flag structure will also take shape, and the price will accelerate to around 60,000;
4) The bullish volume fluctuation curve on the four-hour chart has rebounded from 60,000 to 76,000 and now to around 70,000, showing signs of gradually declining bullish volume. The subsequent bullish counterattack is also nearing its end, unless there is significant good news, but it would only be the last struggle of the bulls.
Market summary:
1) The 4th wave rebound and consolidation on the weekly chart are nearing their end. A shift in the medium-term trend direction could happen at any time, possibly as early as next week, but at the latest, it will be delayed until around April 6. However, it will eventually come.
2) Once the price falls below 65,000, it will accelerate to 60,000, and then breaking below 60,000 towards 40,000 could also be seen. The medium-term downtrend for the 5th wave on the weekly chart may have quietly pressed the start button;
3) The war in the three Middle Eastern countries is escalating, with oil and the dollar index rising, while US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are falling. If the Middle Eastern conflict does not ease or reach a ceasefire next week, this situation will continue. The sustained rise in oil prices will exacerbate global inflation and slow down global economic growth. This year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may decrease or even disappear, market liquidity will gradually reduce, and the decline in US stocks and Bitcoin reaching new lows will become inevitable.
According to tradition, let's first look at a set of data:
1) Spot ETF institutions: Last week, there was a net inflow of $95 million, significantly shrinking net inflow funds, which indicates that the current willingness of ETF institutions to buy BTC is not strong. If the price falls below 60,000, it is estimated that ETF institutions will sell BTC in large quantities;
2) On the order book, the large amount of sell orders accumulated a few days ago has caused the BTC price to drop by 6,000 points. In the last two to three days, the amount of buy orders has been relatively small, limiting the potential for price rebounds;
3) On the daily chart, the 4th wave's consolidation has lasted for 43 days, and the upward trend of MACD is beginning to slow down. Once MACD forms a death cross, the dead cat bounce and consolidation of this 4th wave will be declared over. If the price falls below the lower boundary of this ascending channel around 65,000, a downward flag structure will also take shape, and the price will accelerate to around 60,000;
4) The bullish volume fluctuation curve on the four-hour chart has rebounded from 60,000 to 76,000 and now to around 70,000, showing signs of gradually declining bullish volume. The subsequent bullish counterattack is also nearing its end, unless there is significant good news, but it would only be the last struggle of the bulls.
Market summary:
1) The 4th wave rebound and consolidation on the weekly chart are nearing their end. A shift in the medium-term trend direction could happen at any time, possibly as early as next week, but at the latest, it will be delayed until around April 6. However, it will eventually come.
2) Once the price falls below 65,000, it will accelerate to 60,000, and then breaking below 60,000 towards 40,000 could also be seen. The medium-term downtrend for the 5th wave on the weekly chart may have quietly pressed the start button;
3) The war in the three Middle Eastern countries is escalating, with oil and the dollar index rising, while US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin are falling. If the Middle Eastern conflict does not ease or reach a ceasefire next week, this situation will continue. The sustained rise in oil prices will exacerbate global inflation and slow down global economic growth. This year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may decrease or even disappear, market liquidity will gradually reduce, and the decline in US stocks and Bitcoin reaching new lows will become inevitable.
The crash of the 5th wave of Bitcoin's weekly level is getting closer!
1) The 4th wave's dead cat bounce at the weekly level, with fluctuations between 60,000 and 76,000 lasting for 42 days, has been long enough; the oscillation structure's rising channel has formed and is approaching the lower boundary, and the bears are ready to launch an attack at any moment;
2) The net inflow of funds from institutions buying BTC for spot ETFs is decreasing, enthusiasm is fading, and once the ETF institutions sell off en masse, the mid-term downtrend will begin;
3) The 120-day EMA on the daily chart is under pressure, and the MACD is about to form a death cross at a high position; the upward trend is weakening, and the bullish momentum is exhausting;
4) In the 42-day oscillation structure, the bullish volume at the 4-hour level is gradually diminishing.
Now, the start of the mid-term downtrend of the 5th wave is just waiting for a decisive break and volume increase to trigger a decline. If there is a bit more negative news to stimulate the market, it will accelerate the opening of the crash window! Let the storm come stronger, the sooner it breaks, the sooner it will establish!
1) The 4th wave's dead cat bounce at the weekly level, with fluctuations between 60,000 and 76,000 lasting for 42 days, has been long enough; the oscillation structure's rising channel has formed and is approaching the lower boundary, and the bears are ready to launch an attack at any moment;
2) The net inflow of funds from institutions buying BTC for spot ETFs is decreasing, enthusiasm is fading, and once the ETF institutions sell off en masse, the mid-term downtrend will begin;
3) The 120-day EMA on the daily chart is under pressure, and the MACD is about to form a death cross at a high position; the upward trend is weakening, and the bullish momentum is exhausting;
4) In the 42-day oscillation structure, the bullish volume at the 4-hour level is gradually diminishing.
Now, the start of the mid-term downtrend of the 5th wave is just waiting for a decisive break and volume increase to trigger a decline. If there is a bit more negative news to stimulate the market, it will accelerate the opening of the crash window! Let the storm come stronger, the sooner it breaks, the sooner it will establish!
《A Good Opportunity for Grassroots Comeback? Let You See Through Bitcoin's Bull and Bear for the Next Year, Grasp Trend Opportunities to Make Big Money》
Currently, Bitcoin is in a bear market, which has become a consensus among the public and institutions. I had already predicted on November 14, 2025, that Bitcoin would enter a bear market, and I provided the target price for Bitcoin's decline and its probability. At that time, I estimated the probability of Bitcoin's price dropping to around 58,000 to be 65%. Currently, the lowest spot price is 60,000, which is 2,000 points away from the predicted low. Interested friends can check the screenshot of that tweet:
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
Unity of knowledge and action, no playing with illusions!
My two short positions in BTC/ETH have seen the cost price continuously rise as I keep increasing my position!
In the future, I will also choose a certain opportunity and price to continue increasing my short positions in BTC/ETH. I anticipate that the 4th wave rebound on the BTC weekly chart has likely ended, and we are entering the downtrend of the 5th wave.
My two short positions in BTC/ETH have seen the cost price continuously rise as I keep increasing my position!
In the future, I will also choose a certain opportunity and price to continue increasing my short positions in BTC/ETH. I anticipate that the 4th wave rebound on the BTC weekly chart has likely ended, and we are entering the downtrend of the 5th wave.
If you are still struggling in the crypto circle, take a look at the three BTC charts below, three heartfelt reminders!
Chart 1: Currently, the BTC weekly level 4th wave dead cat bounce has formed a震荡结构 of an ascending channel, which has lasted for 41 days. If the price falls below 65,000, this ascending channel will evolve into a descending flag structure, and there may be a faster and deeper decline ahead. Breaking below 60,000 is not an unattainable fantasy. I believe the peak of the rebound in the BTC weekly level 4th wave is very likely around 76,000, which is only 2,888 points away from my expected rebound second target price of 78,800, and the short-selling main force may have acted in advance;
Chart 2: This is the BTC weekly level five-wave downward mode that started after dropping from the high of 127,000, very classic and realistic. The decline of the 5th wave may have started from the high point of 76,000 and is ongoing. The estimated downward target price is 40,000 to 45,000. After the downward target price is reached, there will be a rebound of around 15,000, and then continue to decline to search for the bottom and consolidate. The consolidation time may take about two to three months.
Chart 3: This is a complete diagram of the projected price trend of Bitcoin transitioning from a bull market to a bear market and then starting a new round of bull market. The true market bottom price of this bear market may appear between August and October 2026, with the price possibly plunging to 35,000 to 38,000, then consolidating for a few days. The new round of bull market may start as early as early next year or at the latest in the second half of next year.
Surviving the bear market, understanding the cyclical laws of bulls and bears, seizing opportunities and having the courage are essential to navigate through the bull and bear cycle and to survive and achieve stable profits in the crypto circle.
Chart 1: Currently, the BTC weekly level 4th wave dead cat bounce has formed a震荡结构 of an ascending channel, which has lasted for 41 days. If the price falls below 65,000, this ascending channel will evolve into a descending flag structure, and there may be a faster and deeper decline ahead. Breaking below 60,000 is not an unattainable fantasy. I believe the peak of the rebound in the BTC weekly level 4th wave is very likely around 76,000, which is only 2,888 points away from my expected rebound second target price of 78,800, and the short-selling main force may have acted in advance;
Chart 2: This is the BTC weekly level five-wave downward mode that started after dropping from the high of 127,000, very classic and realistic. The decline of the 5th wave may have started from the high point of 76,000 and is ongoing. The estimated downward target price is 40,000 to 45,000. After the downward target price is reached, there will be a rebound of around 15,000, and then continue to decline to search for the bottom and consolidate. The consolidation time may take about two to three months.
Chart 3: This is a complete diagram of the projected price trend of Bitcoin transitioning from a bull market to a bear market and then starting a new round of bull market. The true market bottom price of this bear market may appear between August and October 2026, with the price possibly plunging to 35,000 to 38,000, then consolidating for a few days. The new round of bull market may start as early as early next year or at the latest in the second half of next year.
Surviving the bear market, understanding the cyclical laws of bulls and bears, seizing opportunities and having the courage are essential to navigate through the bull and bear cycle and to survive and achieve stable profits in the crypto circle.
《A Good Opportunity for Grassroots Comeback? Let You See Through Bitcoin's Bull and Bear for the Next Year, Grasp Trend Opportunities to Make Big Money》
Currently, Bitcoin is in a bear market, which has become a consensus among the public and institutions. I had already predicted on November 14, 2025, that Bitcoin would enter a bear market, and I provided the target price for Bitcoin's decline and its probability. At that time, I estimated the probability of Bitcoin's price dropping to around 58,000 to be 65%. Currently, the lowest spot price is 60,000, which is 2,000 points away from the predicted low. Interested friends can check the screenshot of that tweet:
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
Now, I will again predict the target price for Bitcoin's major bottom in this round of the bear market:
Probability of 45,000: 75%; Probability of 40,000: 85%; Probability of 38,000: 80%.
The bullish momentum is gradually decreasing, the bullish strength is weakening, and the bearish momentum is gradually increasing;
1) The spot ETF institutions had a net outflow of 129 million dollars today, and the recent amounts in ETF trading have not been significant;
2) The FOMC meeting has concluded, and it has become a foregone conclusion that there will be no interest rate cuts in the coming months, which is bearish. Oil prices are rising, and U.S. inflation is expected to rise to 3.5%;
3) On the four-hour level, the bullish momentum has been gradually decreasing over the past 40 days, the bullish strength is weakening, and the bearish momentum is gradually increasing;
4) The fluctuation time of this daily rising channel has been 41 days. When the price falls below 65,000, this rising channel will turn into a descending flag shape, and the price will continue to plummet.
If the price is still declining now, it can be viewed as a short-term correction with wide fluctuations, and it may continue to rebound below 74,000. Once the price falls below 65,000, this expectation will be shattered.
Based on the data, momentum, and fluctuation cycle, I believe the probability of Bitcoin starting the fifth wave of decline is relatively high, and this probability and certainty will increase after falling below 65,000. Let's wait and see!
1) The spot ETF institutions had a net outflow of 129 million dollars today, and the recent amounts in ETF trading have not been significant;
2) The FOMC meeting has concluded, and it has become a foregone conclusion that there will be no interest rate cuts in the coming months, which is bearish. Oil prices are rising, and U.S. inflation is expected to rise to 3.5%;
3) On the four-hour level, the bullish momentum has been gradually decreasing over the past 40 days, the bullish strength is weakening, and the bearish momentum is gradually increasing;
4) The fluctuation time of this daily rising channel has been 41 days. When the price falls below 65,000, this rising channel will turn into a descending flag shape, and the price will continue to plummet.
If the price is still declining now, it can be viewed as a short-term correction with wide fluctuations, and it may continue to rebound below 74,000. Once the price falls below 65,000, this expectation will be shattered.
Based on the data, momentum, and fluctuation cycle, I believe the probability of Bitcoin starting the fifth wave of decline is relatively high, and this probability and certainty will increase after falling below 65,000. Let's wait and see!
Beware of the risk of a subsequent sharp decline! The price trend of BTC has reached a very critical price level and timing!
1) The amount of sell orders on the order book is continuously accumulating; while the amount is not overly large, it is still double that of the buy orders; the risk of a downward trend is increasing continuously;
2) The net inflow of spot ETF institutions is not very significant, with recent daily net inflows of 200-300 million, which has already decreased by half compared to last week;
3) The probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 19 is almost zero, and oil prices have recently risen quite a bit, indicating that negative news certainly exists;
4) The highest price of BTC's rebound today has reached 76,000, getting closer to around 78,800; tonight the price has fallen below 74,500 and has not successfully stabilized above 74,500.
The two key time nodes for a trend change are March 19 and April 6. Regardless of how BTC prices rebound, it cannot change the fact that we are still in a bear market and in the 4th wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level, proceed with caution.
1) The amount of sell orders on the order book is continuously accumulating; while the amount is not overly large, it is still double that of the buy orders; the risk of a downward trend is increasing continuously;
2) The net inflow of spot ETF institutions is not very significant, with recent daily net inflows of 200-300 million, which has already decreased by half compared to last week;
3) The probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 19 is almost zero, and oil prices have recently risen quite a bit, indicating that negative news certainly exists;
4) The highest price of BTC's rebound today has reached 76,000, getting closer to around 78,800; tonight the price has fallen below 74,500 and has not successfully stabilized above 74,500.
The two key time nodes for a trend change are March 19 and April 6. Regardless of how BTC prices rebound, it cannot change the fact that we are still in a bear market and in the 4th wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level, proceed with caution.
Let's get to work, brothers and sisters! I've reminded you twice already!
Less talk, more action! Maybe that's how the BTC price is falling!
A picture speaks a thousand words.
Less talk, more action! Maybe that's how the BTC price is falling!
A picture speaks a thousand words.
Beware of the risk of a subsequent sharp decline! The price trend of BTC has reached a very critical price level and timing!
1) The amount of sell orders on the order book is continuously accumulating; while the amount is not overly large, it is still double that of the buy orders; the risk of a downward trend is increasing continuously;
2) The net inflow of spot ETF institutions is not very significant, with recent daily net inflows of 200-300 million, which has already decreased by half compared to last week;
3) The probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 19 is almost zero, and oil prices have recently risen quite a bit, indicating that negative news certainly exists;
4) The highest price of BTC's rebound today has reached 76,000, getting closer to around 78,800; tonight the price has fallen below 74,500 and has not successfully stabilized above 74,500.
The two key time nodes for a trend change are March 19 and April 6. Regardless of how BTC prices rebound, it cannot change the fact that we are still in a bear market and in the 4th wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level, proceed with caution.
1) The amount of sell orders on the order book is continuously accumulating; while the amount is not overly large, it is still double that of the buy orders; the risk of a downward trend is increasing continuously;
2) The net inflow of spot ETF institutions is not very significant, with recent daily net inflows of 200-300 million, which has already decreased by half compared to last week;
3) The probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 19 is almost zero, and oil prices have recently risen quite a bit, indicating that negative news certainly exists;
4) The highest price of BTC's rebound today has reached 76,000, getting closer to around 78,800; tonight the price has fallen below 74,500 and has not successfully stabilized above 74,500.
The two key time nodes for a trend change are March 19 and April 6. Regardless of how BTC prices rebound, it cannot change the fact that we are still in a bear market and in the 4th wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level, proceed with caution.
Beware of the risk of a subsequent sharp decline! The price trend of BTC has reached a very critical price level and timing!
1) The amount of sell orders on the order book is continuously accumulating; while the amount is not overly large, it is still double that of the buy orders; the risk of a downward trend is increasing continuously;
2) The net inflow of spot ETF institutions is not very significant, with recent daily net inflows of 200-300 million, which has already decreased by half compared to last week;
3) The probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 19 is almost zero, and oil prices have recently risen quite a bit, indicating that negative news certainly exists;
4) The highest price of BTC's rebound today has reached 76,000, getting closer to around 78,800; tonight the price has fallen below 74,500 and has not successfully stabilized above 74,500.
The two key time nodes for a trend change are March 19 and April 6. Regardless of how BTC prices rebound, it cannot change the fact that we are still in a bear market and in the 4th wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level, proceed with caution.
1) The amount of sell orders on the order book is continuously accumulating; while the amount is not overly large, it is still double that of the buy orders; the risk of a downward trend is increasing continuously;
2) The net inflow of spot ETF institutions is not very significant, with recent daily net inflows of 200-300 million, which has already decreased by half compared to last week;
3) The probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 19 is almost zero, and oil prices have recently risen quite a bit, indicating that negative news certainly exists;
4) The highest price of BTC's rebound today has reached 76,000, getting closer to around 78,800; tonight the price has fallen below 74,500 and has not successfully stabilized above 74,500.
The two key time nodes for a trend change are March 19 and April 6. Regardless of how BTC prices rebound, it cannot change the fact that we are still in a bear market and in the 4th wave dead cat bounce on the weekly level, proceed with caution.
Beware of the risk of a subsequent sharp decline! The BTC price trend has reached a very critical price level and timing!
1) The amount of sell orders on the order book is continuously accumulating. The amount is not considered extremely large, but it is still double that of the buy orders; the accumulated risk of a price change to the downside will continue to rise;
2) The net inflow of spot ETF institutions is not very much, with a recent daily net inflow of 200-300 million, which has already decreased by half compared to last week;
3) The probability of interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 19 is almost zero, and oil prices have recently increased significantly, so negative news is certainly present;
4) The highest rebound price of BTC today has reached 76000, getting closer to around 78,800, and tonight the price has fallen below 74,500, failing to successfully stabilize above 74,500.
The two key time nodes for price changes are March 19 and April 6. Regardless of how BTC's price rebounds, it cannot change the fact that it is still a bear market and is in the fourth wave dead cat bounce on the weekly chart. Be cautious in both rising and falling.
1) The amount of sell orders on the order book is continuously accumulating. The amount is not considered extremely large, but it is still double that of the buy orders; the accumulated risk of a price change to the downside will continue to rise;
2) The net inflow of spot ETF institutions is not very much, with a recent daily net inflow of 200-300 million, which has already decreased by half compared to last week;
3) The probability of interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 19 is almost zero, and oil prices have recently increased significantly, so negative news is certainly present;
4) The highest rebound price of BTC today has reached 76000, getting closer to around 78,800, and tonight the price has fallen below 74,500, failing to successfully stabilize above 74,500.
The two key time nodes for price changes are March 19 and April 6. Regardless of how BTC's price rebounds, it cannot change the fact that it is still a bear market and is in the fourth wave dead cat bounce on the weekly chart. Be cautious in both rising and falling.
Beware of the risk of a subsequent sharp decline! The BTC price trend has reached a very critical price level and timing!
1) The amount of sell orders on the order book is continuously accumulating. The amount is not considered extremely large, but it is still double that of the buy orders; the accumulated risk of a price change to the downside will continue to rise;
2) The net inflow of spot ETF institutions is not very much, with a recent daily net inflow of 200-300 million, which has already decreased by half compared to last week;
3) The probability of interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 19 is almost zero, and oil prices have recently increased significantly, so negative news is certainly present;
4) The highest rebound price of BTC today has reached 76000, getting closer to around 78,800, and tonight the price has fallen below 74,500, failing to successfully stabilize above 74,500.
The two key time nodes for price changes are March 19 and April 6. Regardless of how BTC's price rebounds, it cannot change the fact that it is still a bear market and is in the fourth wave dead cat bounce on the weekly chart. Be cautious in both rising and falling.
1) The amount of sell orders on the order book is continuously accumulating. The amount is not considered extremely large, but it is still double that of the buy orders; the accumulated risk of a price change to the downside will continue to rise;
2) The net inflow of spot ETF institutions is not very much, with a recent daily net inflow of 200-300 million, which has already decreased by half compared to last week;
3) The probability of interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting on March 19 is almost zero, and oil prices have recently increased significantly, so negative news is certainly present;
4) The highest rebound price of BTC today has reached 76000, getting closer to around 78,800, and tonight the price has fallen below 74,500, failing to successfully stabilize above 74,500.
The two key time nodes for price changes are March 19 and April 6. Regardless of how BTC's price rebounds, it cannot change the fact that it is still a bear market and is in the fourth wave dead cat bounce on the weekly chart. Be cautious in both rising and falling.
MicroStrategy's chairman Michael J. Saylor is estimated to have taken the wrong medicine! He believes that by 2045, Bitcoin will rise to $13 million per coin! He must be overly obsessed with BTC and has gone crazy! I predict that from August to October this year, the price of Bitcoin will likely fall to $38,000 to $45,000. By then, Saylor will be so furious at this Bitcoin price that his eyes will pop out and his heart will be broken!
However, Bitcoin will welcome a bull market again in 2027 and 2028, when the price will likely rise to $180,000 to $200,000. In the long term, Bitcoin's price will definitely continue to fluctuate upwards, and by 2028, it will exceed MicroStrategy's overall holding average price of about $75,000. As for Saylor's prediction that Bitcoin will rise to $13 million per coin by 2045, that is extremely ridiculous and overly boastful! China has already developed a quantum computing operating system, and superconducting quantum computing and quantum communication are gradually evolving and upgrading. By around 2040, the superconducting quantum AI matrix will most likely decipher Bitcoin's so-called 256-bit encryption key.
The world's most loyal Bitcoin buyers have struck back again! The largest Bitcoin reserve company, MicroStrategy, has massively increased its holdings for two consecutive weeks, recently purchasing nearly 18,000 BTC at a price of about $70,946 per coin, costing over $1.28 billion. Previously, they acquired 3,015 coins at a cost of $67,700, totaling $204.1 million. All funds were raised from selling their own stocks, and to date, their total holdings have exceeded 738,000 coins, accounting for about 3.5% of the total BTC supply, with an overall holding average price of about $75,000.
However, Bitcoin will welcome a bull market again in 2027 and 2028, when the price will likely rise to $180,000 to $200,000. In the long term, Bitcoin's price will definitely continue to fluctuate upwards, and by 2028, it will exceed MicroStrategy's overall holding average price of about $75,000. As for Saylor's prediction that Bitcoin will rise to $13 million per coin by 2045, that is extremely ridiculous and overly boastful! China has already developed a quantum computing operating system, and superconducting quantum computing and quantum communication are gradually evolving and upgrading. By around 2040, the superconducting quantum AI matrix will most likely decipher Bitcoin's so-called 256-bit encryption key.
The world's most loyal Bitcoin buyers have struck back again! The largest Bitcoin reserve company, MicroStrategy, has massively increased its holdings for two consecutive weeks, recently purchasing nearly 18,000 BTC at a price of about $70,946 per coin, costing over $1.28 billion. Previously, they acquired 3,015 coins at a cost of $67,700, totaling $204.1 million. All funds were raised from selling their own stocks, and to date, their total holdings have exceeded 738,000 coins, accounting for about 3.5% of the total BTC supply, with an overall holding average price of about $75,000.
Let's talk about my prediction on whether BTC can break through the key resistance level of 74,500: the two key time nodes for the medium-term trend direction reversal are around March 19 and April 6.
First, let's look at the volume and on-chain data:
1) From the four-hour level of long and short volume and candlesticks, the short volume in these two days is obviously stronger than the long volume. The recent consecutive three four-hour candlesticks have shown long upper shadows. However, MicroStrategy has been buying Bitcoin continuously over the weekend, and a Japanese listed company also bought $245 million worth of Bitcoin over the weekend. The continuous buying by these institutions has prevented the price from falling.
MicroStrategy increased its holdings of 22,337 Bitcoins last week:
According to official news, MicroStrategy spent about $1.57 billion to acquire 22,337 BTC last week, with an average price of about $70,194. Latest data: MicroStrategy holds a total of 761,068 BTC, with a total investment of about $57.61 billion, and an average price of about $75,696.
2) On the order book, the amount of sell orders has been accumulating significantly larger amounts in recent days, greatly exceeding the amount of buy orders.
Although MicroStrategy and the Japanese listed company have been continuously buying Bitcoin over the weekend, the on-chain data and the four-hour candlesticks and volume tell me that this time Bitcoin is highly unlikely to break above 74,500, but is more likely to adjust down to around 65,500, and then choose to rebound upwards again, challenging the resistance price of 74,500.
In the third image, I have illustrated two possible future trajectories for Bitcoin, which is actually a simplified version of the three trajectories I had previously outlined, removing the first trajectory while retaining the second and third.
Regardless of how Bitcoin chooses between the two trajectories in the third image, the only difference is whether the height of the fourth wave rebound at the weekly level is 74,500 or 78,800. Ultimately, this will not change the direction of the medium-term downtrend. After the fourth wave rebound ends, BTC will face a terrifying crash in the fifth wave downtrend, with a target price of 40,000-45,000. Next, we only need to focus on the two key time nodes for the medium-term trend direction reversal: around March 19 and April 6.
First, let's look at the volume and on-chain data:
1) From the four-hour level of long and short volume and candlesticks, the short volume in these two days is obviously stronger than the long volume. The recent consecutive three four-hour candlesticks have shown long upper shadows. However, MicroStrategy has been buying Bitcoin continuously over the weekend, and a Japanese listed company also bought $245 million worth of Bitcoin over the weekend. The continuous buying by these institutions has prevented the price from falling.
MicroStrategy increased its holdings of 22,337 Bitcoins last week:
According to official news, MicroStrategy spent about $1.57 billion to acquire 22,337 BTC last week, with an average price of about $70,194. Latest data: MicroStrategy holds a total of 761,068 BTC, with a total investment of about $57.61 billion, and an average price of about $75,696.
2) On the order book, the amount of sell orders has been accumulating significantly larger amounts in recent days, greatly exceeding the amount of buy orders.
Although MicroStrategy and the Japanese listed company have been continuously buying Bitcoin over the weekend, the on-chain data and the four-hour candlesticks and volume tell me that this time Bitcoin is highly unlikely to break above 74,500, but is more likely to adjust down to around 65,500, and then choose to rebound upwards again, challenging the resistance price of 74,500.
In the third image, I have illustrated two possible future trajectories for Bitcoin, which is actually a simplified version of the three trajectories I had previously outlined, removing the first trajectory while retaining the second and third.
Regardless of how Bitcoin chooses between the two trajectories in the third image, the only difference is whether the height of the fourth wave rebound at the weekly level is 74,500 or 78,800. Ultimately, this will not change the direction of the medium-term downtrend. After the fourth wave rebound ends, BTC will face a terrifying crash in the fifth wave downtrend, with a target price of 40,000-45,000. Next, we only need to focus on the two key time nodes for the medium-term trend direction reversal: around March 19 and April 6.
Three price trends before the BTC medium-term downtrend changes:
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;
Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.
This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.
I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.
The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!
Trend 1: Before March 17, the price attempts to reach 74,000 twice and fails. After March 17, BTC starts the medium-term downtrend; this trend is relatively simple, with a probability of 40%;
Trend 2: Around March 25, the price attempts to reach 74,000 for the third time and fails again. After three unsuccessful breakthroughs, there will surely be a significant drop, and BTC will begin the medium-term downtrend at the end of March; the oscillation period is close to two months, and this trend aligns with expectations and common sense, with a probability of 60%;
Trend 3: Around March 25, if the price successfully reaches 74,000 for the third time and stays above 74,000 for two consecutive days, BTC will aim for the second target price of 78,800 and build a top near 78,800 before the medium-term downtrend begins. This trend has an oscillation time of more than two months, with a probability of 50%, and the rebound is expected to end in early April, with the rebound peak of the weekly level's fourth wave stopping near 78,800.
This weekly level's fourth wave rebound, because the price fell to 60,000 on February 6, has seen significant buying power in the market, with high trading volume and bullish momentum. The oscillation period has been longer than expected, and the oscillation trend is relatively complex, so be prepared for a long-term bullish battle.
I still firmly believe: this is just a dead cat bounce of the fourth wave at the weekly level, and the subsequent fifth wave downtrend will likely see BTC prices fall to 40,000-45,000, with the real bottom of the bear market expected to appear around October.
The bear market continues, the deep bear has not yet arrived, keep going and persevere!
Analysis and prediction of BTC's weekly market data and price trends, continuing wide fluctuations, April 6 is a key time node!
BTC's data and volume do not lie. As usual, let's first look at a set of data and volume:
Figure 1: Spot ETF institutions, with a net inflow of 767 million USD last week, and a net inflow of 180 million USD last Friday. Compared to the peak inflow of over 2 billion before October 11, the average weekly net inflow of funds in the last three weeks has been around 750 million, which can be described as being in a difficult position. Once the weekly net inflow turns to 0 or negative, this wave of the fourth wave rebound at the weekly level, which has been supported by spot ETF institutions, will basically come to an end.
Figure 2: Order book amount at four-hour level, from February 6 to today, the overall amount of buy and sell orders is evenly matched, and it can also be seen that neither side has shown a significant accumulation of funds. Therefore, the BTC price has experienced wide fluctuations from February 6 to March 15. However, this box-shaped fluctuation structure is likely to be broken soon.
Figure 1: Spot ETF institutions, with a net inflow of 767 million USD last week, and a net inflow of 180 million USD last Friday. Compared to the peak inflow of over 2 billion before October 11, the average weekly net inflow of funds in the last three weeks has been around 750 million, which can be described as being in a difficult position. Once the weekly net inflow turns to 0 or negative, this wave of the fourth wave rebound at the weekly level, which has been supported by spot ETF institutions, will basically come to an end.
Figure 2: Order book amount at four-hour level, from February 6 to today, the overall amount of buy and sell orders is evenly matched, and it can also be seen that neither side has shown a significant accumulation of funds. Therefore, the BTC price has experienced wide fluctuations from February 6 to March 15. However, this box-shaped fluctuation structure is likely to be broken soon.
$NIGHT coin is undervalued! Midnight Network unlocks new possibilities for Web3 privacy with rational privacy!
In the Web3 industry, privacy protection has always been a key focus, but there are not many projects that can truly achieve a balance between "privacy and compliance." Many privacy chains either focus solely on privacy, neglecting regulatory compliance, which makes practical application difficult; or they emphasize compliance too much, losing the core meaning of privacy protection. The emergence of Midnight Network just addresses this pain point. As a fourth-generation blockchain, it proposes the concept of "rational privacy," which is neither extreme nor compromising, and this is why I have always paid attention to it.
Many people may still not be clear about what Midnight Network actually does. Simply put, it is a platform specifically designed to solve the problem of excessive transparency in Web3 data, with the core being zero-knowledge proof (ZKPs) technology. Unlike some projects that complicate zero-knowledge proofs, Midnight's technology is more practical — we can complete all operations on the blockchain, such as trading and verifying information, without exposing our personal information or business secrets, thus ensuring privacy without affecting the normal process of transactions and verifications. This aspect is particularly useful for both enterprises and ordinary users. For example, in scenarios like compliance audits and identity management, DApps built with it can achieve data usability without visibility.
Many people may still not be clear about what Midnight Network actually does. Simply put, it is a platform specifically designed to solve the problem of excessive transparency in Web3 data, with the core being zero-knowledge proof (ZKPs) technology. Unlike some projects that complicate zero-knowledge proofs, Midnight's technology is more practical — we can complete all operations on the blockchain, such as trading and verifying information, without exposing our personal information or business secrets, thus ensuring privacy without affecting the normal process of transactions and verifications. This aspect is particularly useful for both enterprises and ordinary users. For example, in scenarios like compliance audits and identity management, DApps built with it can achieve data usability without visibility.
The support of Binance Square should not be underestimated! Today's $NIGHT coins have seen drastic price fluctuations!
The potential of the privacy track can be seen from how $ZEC rose from $20 to $750 back in the day, yet many people overlook the current potential targets. Currently, the price of $NIGHT is around $0.05, and the Midnight Network behind it, as a fourth-generation blockchain, emphasizes "rational privacy" which really hits the pain point—data in Web3 is too transparent, making it easy to leak personal and business information. With zero-knowledge proof technology, it allows us to verify transactions and confirm facts without exposing sensitive information, making it suitable for scenarios like compliance audits and identity management. Personally, I believe that $NIGHT is currently in an undervalued low price range, and with the mainnet approaching, its future potential is worth paying attention to. @MidnightNetwork #night $NIGHT
The potential of the privacy track can be seen from how $ZEC rose from $20 to $750 back in the day, yet many people overlook the current potential targets. Currently, the price of $NIGHT is around $0.05, and the Midnight Network behind it, as a fourth-generation blockchain, emphasizes "rational privacy" which really hits the pain point—data in Web3 is too transparent, making it easy to leak personal and business information. With zero-knowledge proof technology, it allows us to verify transactions and confirm facts without exposing sensitive information, making it suitable for scenarios like compliance audits and identity management. Personally, I believe that $NIGHT is currently in an undervalued low price range, and with the mainnet approaching, its future potential is worth paying attention to. @MidnightNetwork #night $NIGHT
The short position in Bitcoin continues to be held...
My personal prediction is that in March, BTC will continue to fluctuate widely and accumulate momentum. If the price attempts to break through the key resistance level of 74,000 for the third time and ultimately fails, then this round of fluctuation between 60,000 and 74,000 will come to an end, and a new medium-term downtrend will begin, with the price dropping below 60,000 and continuing to fall to the range of 40,000 to 45,000. If it rebounds to around 74,000 for the third time and successfully breaks above 74,000, then the next rebound target price will be around 78,800. Subsequently, BTC will form a phase top structure near 78,800, before starting a new medium-term downtrend. Let's wait and see.
My personal prediction is that in March, BTC will continue to fluctuate widely and accumulate momentum. If the price attempts to break through the key resistance level of 74,000 for the third time and ultimately fails, then this round of fluctuation between 60,000 and 74,000 will come to an end, and a new medium-term downtrend will begin, with the price dropping below 60,000 and continuing to fall to the range of 40,000 to 45,000. If it rebounds to around 74,000 for the third time and successfully breaks above 74,000, then the next rebound target price will be around 78,800. Subsequently, BTC will form a phase top structure near 78,800, before starting a new medium-term downtrend. Let's wait and see.
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