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I have been warning you for the last 45 days that a big dump was coming and now it’s playing out exactly. Bitcoin has already dumped around $20K and is now trading near 112K, right at the major resistance zone that has triggered every big correction since 2018.
A small bounce to 115K–116K is possible, but after that I expect another leg down toward 100K, and potentially lower to 90K. I’m still holding my 50% short position. If anything changes or I close my position, I’ll update you. Remember I mentioned earlier that if BTC went back to 125K–128K, I would add more shorts and that plan hasn’t changed.
Till Monday, I expect some volatility, but Monday’s price action will give a clearer direction.
🔸 Weekly: BTC touched the long-term trendline again → clear rejection happened. 👉 Until we get a weekly close above 125K, the risk of a major pullback stays high.
🔸 Daily: Price is inside the 110K–125K supply zone. Structure is weak. If price breaks and resists below 110K, then 100K is the next target.
📊 My Trade:
✅ First target 105K hit Holding 50% shorts, expecting a bounce to 115K, then lower.
For the last 40 days I’ve been telling you guys I’m bearish on $BTC. We already dropped almost 8K twice, but every time Bitcoin reclaimed the levels again. Right now it’s trading around 18K to 119k but nothing has changed for me. I’m still bearish.
I’ve said many times that the 115K to 124K region is a short zone, not a long zone. If you’re still holding longs, I’d strongly suggest you flip to shorts because the chart is flashing multiple top signals.
Don’t get trapped by hype like “Bitcoin to 1 million by the end of this year.” That’s just noise. The structure is weak, liquidity is being engineered, and the bigger downside move is still ahead.
$BTC hasn’t changed anything from last Sunday. Price is still stuck inside the same $54K–$72K range, and once again it failed to reclaim and hold above $72K, confirming that the structure remains weak.
My view stays exactly the same. This is still a sideways distribution phase, not accumulation. Until we see a clean break and hold above $72K, there is no reason to turn bullish. On the other side, a breakdown from this range will likely send price toward $44K–$50K or lower.
I’m not chasing anything here. I’m simply waiting for my levels.
Below $60K → I'll look small longs (short-term only)
$80K–$85K → I'll add more shorts (To main position)
Nothing has changed. The plan is clear, and I stay patient while the market plays inside the box. 📊
$BTC once again failed to close the weekly candle above the $72K range high, which is a concern. That was one of the main reasons I decided to close my long position, along with the second factor being the ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
I’ve made it clear that a range is forming, and I expect Bitcoin to continue trading sideways between $54K and $72K. This phase is not bullish. It is a preparation phase for what comes next. My expectation remains the same: after this consolidation, Bitcoin is likely to break down from the range and move toward $44K–$50K or even lower in the coming months.
To understand this better, look back at 2024. Bitcoin spent nearly a full year consolidating between $58K and $74K. At that time, I explained that this range would act as a future reference zone in the next bear market. Now in 2026, price has returned to that same structure. In a bear market, previous consolidation zones act as structure, not support, and structure eventually breaks.
Why buy in a bear market?
Because markets do not move in straight lines. Even in downtrends, there are strong counter-trend rallies. For example, in 2022, Bitcoin dropped from $68K to $33K, then rallied to $48.5K before continuing down to $16K. These moves exist to build liquidity before the next leg down. That’s why I still expect the final bottom below $50K.
Macro Pressure
The current downside is also being driven by geopolitical risk. Tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran have escalated, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly 20% of global oil supply.
With Iran restricting access and the U.S. escalating military actions, Crude Oil has surged above $110, increasing inflation fears. This is pushing markets into a risk-off environment, where investors move away from risk assets like Bitcoin, leading to panic selling, liquidity grabs, and reduced capital inflow into crypto.
Strategy Update
My strategy remains unchanged. I previously warned near $124K that the market was overheated. read on x...
🚨 JUST IN: 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia ramps up its East–West oil pipeline to FULL capacity, pushing a massive 7 MILLION barrels per day and completely bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
This is a major power move, securing oil flow while reducing reliance on one of the world’s most critical choke points.
The Strategic Importance of Digital Sovereign Infrastructure for Middle East Economic Growth
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Digital sovereign infrastructure is becoming a critical pillar for economic growth across the Middle East. Projects like @SignOfficial are positioning themselves at the forefront of this shift, providing the foundational tech needed for secure, localized digital expansion. Keeping a close eye on $SIGN as it builds out this ecosystem.
The Current Oil Crisis Is Bigger Than COVID. Literally 🚨
During COVID, the world stopped needing oil — demand collapsed by 23 million barrels per day. The Hormuz blockade has cut supply by 24 million. The difference is critical: this time the demand is still there. The world needs the oil. Today is day 26 of the blockade.
OPEC's response has been 206,000 additional barrels per day. That covers only 2% of the hole.
Every day the blockade holds, the numbers get worse. Here is where it stands right now 👇
⏺India: 74 days of reserves left, government scrambling for emergency suppliers
⏺Philippines: declared a national state of energy emergency, first country in the world to do so, gas prices up 100% since February 28
⏺Australia: 500+ gas stations out of fuel, 187 completely out of diesel
⏺New Zealand: roughly 3 weeks from running out entirely, no domestic refining capacity
⏺Japan: officially claimed 254 days of reserves, actual usable number is 95
⏺Sri Lanka: rationing, 4-day work week, schools closed
⏺Pakistan: overnight price surges, long queues at pumps, 4-day work week
⏺South Africa: government says situation is stable, citizens are photographing empty pumps
⏺Turkey: stocks crashed, inflation exploding, currency under pressure 🇪🇺 ECB president Lagarde warned that energy disruptions may last years and that economic consequences will emerge only gradually. India's PM Modi has already compared it to COVID.
This has a supply wall with no clear end date and governments that are visibly lying about how much runway they actually have.
Just remember, every pump you see in crypto or stocks right now is fake, and a big crash is coming soon. The long positions we’re opening are only to take advantage of these temporary pumps.