Cointime

Polygon基金会CEO：地缘政治紧张凸显传统跨境支付脆弱性
Cointime 报道，3月30日，Polygon基金会首席执行官Sandeep Nailwal发推表示，传统的结算方式仍然需要通过中间环节和通道，一旦局势紧张，这些环节就会阻塞，导致数十亿资金停滞不前。而基于公链运行的稳定币，无论局势如何都能在几秒钟内完成结算。Polygon仅本月就完成了5.32亿笔交易，而且期间没有出现任何宕机。链上支付不受政府间局势的影响，它们就是能正常运行。

美国在中东地区驻军人数已超5万人
3 月 30 日，据《纽约时报》报道，随着 2500 名海军陆战队队员和另外 2500 名海军士兵的抵达，使得美国在中东地区的驻军人数超过了 5 万人，比平时多了约 1 万人。虽然目前尚不清楚来自第 31 海军远征部队的海军陆战队队员将承担何种具体任务，但美国官员表示，特朗普正在考虑是否要发动规模更大的攻势，比如试图夺取一座岛屿或其他陆地，这是特朗普为打开霍尔木兹海峡所采取行动的一部分。

修复后不到一小时再度故障：DeepSeek网页/APP服务异常
据 1M AI News 监测，AI 大模型公司 DeepSeek 的网页端和 APP 服务于 3 月 30 日凌晨再次出现性能异常。官方状态页显示，团队于凌晨 1:24 实施修复并进入监控阶段，但 52 分钟后（凌晨 2:16）问题再度出现，重新进入调查状态。截至发稿，该事故尚未解决。

Willy Woo：传统链上模型显示比特币底部介于4.6万至5.4万美元之间
3 月 30 日，加密分析师 Willy Woo 表示，一些传统的链上模型显示，BTC 的底部大致在 4.6 万至 5.4 万美元之间，同时也暗示了可能还需要等待的时间。存储在 BTC 中的资本规模，自 11 月以来一直在流出。不过需要提醒的是，这些模型也存在局限性。这些模型基于历史行为，而比特币历史上仅有 4 次熊市，并且都发生在风险资产长期牛市的大背景下。如果这一基础被打破，我们可能会进入未知领域（更深度的熊市）。最后，个人认为，由于全球宏观层面长期牛市结构可能出现破裂，出现更深熊市的概率是相当高的。

特朗普：伊朗已答应15项停战要求中的大部分
3 月 30 日，特朗普于当地时间周日在美国空军一号专机上对记者表示，伊朗已「满足」美方此前向德黑兰提出的 15 项停战要求中的「大部分」，尽管目前尚不清楚双方是否真的正在展开实质性谈判。他表示：「他们已满足我们大部分要点。他们为何不这么做呢？我们将再提出几项其他要求。」但他拒绝透露伊朗方面具体作出了哪些让步。公开层面，伊朗已明确拒绝 15 项停火条件的清单，并反向提出自身五项前提条件——其中包括对霍尔木兹海峡主权的完全掌控。上周末，来自巴基斯坦、沙特阿拉伯和土耳其的官员举行会晤，试图为冲突寻找出路，但目前尚无迹象表明会谈取得实质进展。巴基斯坦外长在与各国同行会晤后表示：「伊朗和美国均已表示信任巴基斯坦，愿由巴方主办后续谈判。」不过，双方均未表明已做好直接对话的准备。(金十)

Thailand has reached an agreement with Iran for its oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz
On March 28, Thai Prime Minister Anutin announced today that in response to the crisis caused by rising domestic oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East, the Thai Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been actively communicating with relevant countries. According to the agreement reached with Iran, Thai oil tankers can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Anutin held a media briefing at the Government House that day to explain the government's measures to address oil price fluctuations. He stated that the government will focus on advancing four areas of work: diplomatic coordination, energy security, commodity price control, and livelihood protection, and called on the public to collectively implement energy-saving measures to address the situation. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak stated that Thailand has proposed to hold a special ASEAN Foreign Ministers' meeting to discuss plans to alleviate tensions. Thailand currently still has stable oil reserves, and the government is actively seeking additional energy sources through diplomatic channels. (Jin Shi)

Binance OTC trading volume surges: In two months, it reached 25% of last year's total, institutional funds accelerating entry into Bitcoin
On March 28, news reported that Binance released the OTC and execution services report for March 2026, showing that institutional demand has significantly increased since the beginning of the year. In the first two months, OTC trading volume has already reached 25% of the total for 2025, reflecting an ongoing reliance on over-the-counter liquidity and execution services by large funds. The report pointed out that against the backdrop of increasing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, Bitcoin prices fluctuated in the range of $60,000 to $78,000 in February, but institutional funds continued to flow in.
The proportion of BTC in OTC trading rose sharply from 4.91% in January to 45.81% in February, with significant increases in stablecoin and fiat currency inflows, indicating signs of bottom-fishing. Meanwhile, Binance OTC demonstrated capabilities in complex trade execution. A case showed that a $105 million WBETH to ETH transaction was completed within two hours, with a slippage of about 50 basis points, optimizing around 75% compared to order book execution, significantly enhancing capital efficiency. Overall, the report believes that the current market presents characteristics of 'price fluctuations + institutional accumulation', and the importance of OTC channels in large transactions and complex asset conversions continues to rise.

Anthropic executives discuss Q4 IPO, investment banks expect to raise as much as 60 billion dollars
AI unicorn Anthropic plans to sprint for an IPO as early as the fourth quarter, expecting to raise over 60 billion dollars, aiming for the second-largest IPO in history. Its valuation is as high as 350 billion, with astonishing revenue growth, and is in fierce competition with OpenAI in the 'IPO race'.

A certain whale is suspected of selling 4,500 bitcoins through the OTC platform, worth approximately $295.5 million.
Cointime reported that on March 28, according to lookonchain monitoring, a whale is suspected of selling 4,500 BTC (approximately $295.5 million): NYDIG transferred 4,500 BTC to Wintermute, Cumberland, FalconX, B2C2Group, and Galaxy Digital 8 hours ago, likely for the purpose of executing sales.

Tehran has recently faced the largest scale airstrikes, Iranian University of Science and Technology attacked
On March 28, according to CCTV International News, at local time today (March 28) early morning, multiple areas in Tehran, the capital of Iran, were subjected to several rounds of intense bombings. It has been observed that this attack by the US and Israel on Tehran is the largest scale one in recent times. Regarding the 'Iran-US negotiations' that the media is closely monitoring, Iran has not disclosed any official information about the negotiations so far. From the recent military actions of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to today’s early morning large-scale airstrikes by the US and Israel on Tehran, it is evident that there are no signs of easing in the military actions from all sides. According to the Iranian Mehr News Agency, the Iranian University of Science and Technology located in Tehran was attacked by US and Israeli airstrikes at local time today (March 28) early morning.

Stablecoin Yield Controversy Stalls Legislative Process: US Crypto Regulation Again Stuck in Deadlock, Industry Discontent Rising
On March 28, the US crypto industry continued to grapple with disagreements over stablecoin yields, becoming a core bottleneck hindering overall legislative progress. Multiple sources indicate that although Congress has recently circulated draft texts related to the relevant provisions, negotiations have yet to achieve substantial breakthroughs. Coin Center's policy director Jason Somensatto stated that the stablecoin yield issue is the "main obstacle" to advancing the current crypto market structure bill; if this issue is resolved, the remaining provisions may reach consensus quickly. The focal point of the controversy is whether stablecoins should be allowed to provide yields to holders. The previously passed GENIUS Act has prohibited issuers from directly paying interest to users but has not restricted third-party platforms from offering rewards. The banking sector is concerned that this move will divert deposits, while the crypto industry believes that limiting yields will stifle innovation. In the course of negotiations, Coinbase faced criticism for raising objections to certain provisions, being accused of "slowing down the bill's progress." Its CEO Brian Armstrong had previously opposed provisions that could potentially "kill stablecoin yields" and expressed concerns about regulatory jurisdiction and DeFi provisions. The White House has summoned banks and the crypto industry for consultations multiple times but has still not reached a consensus. Industry insiders pointed out that negotiations have gone through multiple rounds with no results, and if delays continue, the bill may not even reach the Senate committee voting stage, posing a risk of "failing to pass." Nevertheless, the market still holds a certain expectation for progress. Coinbase indicated that the industry is preparing to jointly propose an alternative solution, aiming to resolve the yield provision disagreements within the next few weeks.

In the past hour, the entire network has liquidated $109 million, mainly long positions
On March 27, according to Coinglass data, the entire network has liquidated $109 million in the past hour, among which long positions accounted for $106 million and short positions for $3.01 million.

CME Federal Reserve observation data shows that the market is no longer pricing in rate cut expectations
Cointime reports that CME Federal Reserve observation data shows that the market is no longer pricing in rate cut expectations; the probability of interest rate hikes in 2027 is gradually increasing, while interest rates are expected to remain unchanged for most of this year.

HTX DeepThink: The expectation of interest rate cuts has failed, and the cryptocurrency market has entered a re-pricing moment under the triple pressure of macro factors.
On March 27, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that the impact of this round of macro variables on the cryptocurrency market has evolved from "easing expectations driving risk appetite" to a framework of "higher interest rates for longer + energy shocks + liquidity contraction." Although Jerome Powell's latest statement formally retains the median forecast for one interest rate cut within the year, the core signal is clearer: policy will not shift to easing until inflation shows a sustained and credible decline. The market has completed the first round of rapid re-pricing, with short-term interest rates remaining high and even exhibiting upward stickiness, indicating that the trading logic based on "early interest rate cuts" has essentially failed. For the cryptocurrency market, this directly weakens the valuation anchor, leading to more significant valuation compression pressure on high beta assets, AI narrative coins, and assets without cash flow support. The Middle East situation has disturbed the energy market, with rising oil prices increasing the risk of "secondary inflation," limiting global liquidity, compressing the risk budgets of households and institutions, and extending the high-interest rate cycle, forming systemic pressure on risk assets. BTC can benefit from fiat credit and sovereign risk narratives in extreme situations, but under normal conditions, its price still relies on dollar liquidity, showing a "downward resistance rather than upward" structure in the short term. Although the Bank of Japan remains motionless, the exit from ultra-loose policies is clear, and yen fluctuations may increase global carry trade pressure. Attention should be paid to U.S. inflation employment data and Bank of Japan policy signals; the resonance of both will drive "liquidity contraction + increased volatility." In terms of trading structure, the market has entered a "light beta, heavy structure" phase: BTC combines liquidity with macro narrative advantages, ETH relies on on-chain activities and the recovery of capital flow, while most altcoins are in a valuation re-pricing cycle, with the short-term strategy being to wait for re-pricing opportunities after the macro path becomes clear. Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, invitation, or suggestion for any investment product.

OpenClaw will establish an independent foundation: NVIDIA and ByteDance have joined, Tencent is in talks
According to 1M AI News monitoring, OpenClaw will transition into an upcoming independent foundation to continue open-source operations. Founder and Austrian developer Peter Steinberger revealed in his first interview with Bloomberg after joining OpenAI that NVIDIA and ByteDance have confirmed their participation in the foundation, and Tencent is in talks, having also communicated with Microsoft. He stated that he is 'trying to be Switzerland' in this matter. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman previously called Steinberger a 'genius' and mentioned that 'the future will be extremely multi-agent, and supporting open-source is very important to us.' Steinberger joined the Codex team at OpenAI and disclosed the integration direction of Codex and OpenClaw: when agents are smart enough, they will autonomously write code to enhance their capabilities, 'the boundary between programming and non-programming is disappearing, and this is also the reason we ultimately decided to merge the two at OpenAI.' The multi-agent future he envisions is one where everyone has both work agents and personal agents, which can call upon each other while maintaining their own data boundaries. In the interview, he also discussed the differences between China and the US in AI agent applications: 'In the US, some companies will fire you for using OpenClaw; in China, some companies will fire you for not using it.' He mentioned that Chinese companies have shown him a table listing every employee's name, with a column next to it stating 'What was automated today?' actively promoting employees to use AI to improve efficiency by tenfold. Meanwhile, in the US, some companies have restricted employee usage due to security concerns. Steinberger believes that both approaches are not perfect, but the US can learn something from China's faster embrace of new technology, 'This stuff is too new; the only way to learn it is to actually use it and see it.' During GTC, he had discussions with Chinese companies such as MiniMax, Dark Side of the Moon, and Tencent.

In the context of increasing global uncertainty, Bitcoin whales increased their holdings by 61,568 BTC in the past month. On March 27, according to Cointelegraph, on-chain analysis platform Santiment's data shows that under the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East and macroeconomic uncertainty, Bitcoin 'whales' and 'sharks' (addresses holding 10 to 10,000 BTC) collectively added 61,568 BTC in the past month, with total holdings increasing by 0.45%. Meanwhile, wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC also increased by 213, a rise of 0.42%. This data aligns with the trend of continued net outflows from Bitcoin exchanges in March, indicating that holders are inclined to accumulate rather than sell. Santiment analysts noted that the accumulation by large whales could be a 'positive signal' for a potential price breakout: 'Ideally, upward breakouts often occur during large wallet accumulation and retail sell-offs, which historically has been a highly reliable signal for the start of a bull market.' Zeus Research analyst Dominick John told Cointelegraph that the current accumulation by Bitcoin whales is likely a prelude to the next breakout, 'quietly building positions during the consolidation period.' He also cautioned that whales tend to buy in batches, and if retail FOMO sentiment heats up too much, there could be a brief pause or slight pullback before the next accumulation phase arrives. Notably, not all whales are accumulating. On March 19, two whale addresses transferred tens of millions of dollars in Bitcoin to exchanges as Bitcoin dropped amid escalating conflicts in Iran. On the sentiment front, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reported a score of 13 on Friday, which falls within the 'extreme fear' range, dipping as low as 10 on Thursday, and maintaining an 'extreme fear' rating for the past week and throughout February.

Analysis: The Iran war may exacerbate the most severe financing crisis in the Asian private equity sector in a decade. On March 27, according to CNBC, several industry insiders stated that the turmoil in Iran, sweeping the global markets, has introduced new uncertainties that could weaken the recently revived enthusiasm for investing in Asian private equity. Andrew Thompson, head of asset management and private equity for KPMG Asia-Pacific, said: "The situation we are seeing now is quite similar to the tariff situation at the beginning of last year—people will pause, slow down, and choose to wait—to avoid being affected by any sudden shocks." Against the backdrop of increasing uncertainty, investment funds in the Middle East (a major source of capital in the global private equity sector) may also temporarily slow their pace of foreign investments, and at least in the short term, there will not be large-scale overseas investments. Thompson stated: "Now is not the time for fundraising assessments. They need to resolve more issues right now." According to a report released by Bain & Company this week, the funds raised by private equity firms focused on the Asian market last year fell to nearly the lowest level in a decade, reaching only $58 billion, marking the fourth consecutive year of capital contraction. (Jin Shi)

Anthropic accidentally leaked the next generation model 'Claude Mythos': a new level beyond Opus, with cybersecurity capabilities 'far exceeding all existing AIs'. According to monitoring by 1M AI News, Anthropic is testing a new model called 'Claude Mythos'. Due to a misconfiguration in the content management system, an unpublished draft blog was stored in a publicly searchable database, inadvertently exposing the existence of this model. Anthropic subsequently confirmed the model, stating that it represents a 'step change in capability' and is 'the strongest model we have built to date'. The leaked draft shows that Mythos is a brand new level of models, positioned above the Opus series. The draft states that 'compared to the previous best model Claude Opus 4.6, this model has significantly improved scores in software programming, academic reasoning, and cybersecurity tests'. The draft also mentions the code name 'Capybara', which points to the same underlying model as Mythos. Anthropic is particularly vigilant about the model's cybersecurity capabilities, with the draft stating that it is 'currently far ahead of any other AI model in terms of cybersecurity capabilities' and 'foreshadows an upcoming wave of model trends, whose vulnerability exploitation capabilities will far exceed the defenders' response speed'. Therefore, Anthropic has adopted a slower release strategy than ever before: first opening to a small number of early clients, focusing on cybersecurity defense scenarios, and helping organizations strengthen their codebases before the wave of AI-driven attacks arrives. The operational cost of this model is extremely high and it will not be open to the public in the short term. This leak originated from a 'human error' in Anthropic's external CMS tool, resulting in nearly 3,000 unpublished assets (including blog drafts, images, and PDFs) being publicly stored in an unencrypted database. Cybersecurity researcher Alexandre Pauwels from the University of Cambridge and Roy Paz, a senior AI security researcher at LayerX Security, independently discovered these files. The leaked content also includes details about the European CEO closed-door summit that Anthropic will hold in the UK, with CEO Dario Amodei in attendance at an 18th-century manor hotel in the English countryside. An Anthropic spokesperson stated, 'We are developing a general model with significant advancements in reasoning, programming, and cybersecurity. Given the strength of its capabilities, we will be very cautious in our release approach.'

OpenAI resets the usage limits for all Codex plans to encourage users to try out the new plugins
According to 1M AI News, Thibault Sottiaux, the head of OpenAI Codex, announced that the usage limits for all plans have been reset, allowing users to fully experience the newly launched plugin system. Codex has just introduced the plugin feature, with the first batch integrating commonly used developer tools such as Slack, Figma, Notion, and Gmail.

Insider: SpaceX IPO Expected to Raise $40 Billion to $80 Billion
On March 27, according to The Wall Street Journal, insiders said that SpaceX's IPO is expected to raise between $40 billion and $80 billion. SpaceX is considering giving preferential treatment to investors from other companies owned by Musk in the stock allocation.