阿曾

#摩根士丹利比特币现货etf From a broader perspective of Bitcoin $BTC spot ETF ecosystem (led by BlackRock, Fidelity, etc.), these products are expected to see cumulative net inflows of over hundreds of billions of dollars during the 2025-2026 period, pushing the BTC price back up from about $42,208 in early 2024 to a peak of about $75,200 in March 2026. However, it recently fell back to $66,321-$66,781 (2026-03-28 15:13 UTC) due to geopolitical conflicts (US-Iran tensions) and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve.

In the long term, Wall Street institutions (such as Morgan Stanley) continuously accumulating crypto exposure will support the narrative of BTC as "digital gold," with the price center shifting upward, but facing inflation, geopolitical risks, and regulatory uncertainty. Baseline forecast: If Morgan Stanley launches a similar ETF in the future, it is expected to boost liquidity in the short term (+5-10% price elasticity), and in the long term, strengthen BTC towards a potential of over $100,000 through institutional capital inflows, but it is not a decisive catalyst.

#金价连续第十天下跌 Those who bought gold at a high position may be stuck for another 10 years.

The logic of being 'stuck for ten years' after buying gold at a high position essentially comes from three overlapping factors: cycles, interest rates, and sentiment.

The first is a mismatch in cycles. Gold usually strengthens during periods of rising global uncertainty and monetary easing. If one chases high prices during times of panic or intense risk aversion, it often corresponds to a phase peak. Once the risks ease, funds flow back from gold to the stock market or other assets, and prices enter a long-term fluctuation or even decline.

The second is suppression by real interest rates. Gold itself does not yield interest. When the world enters a rate hike cycle and real interest rates (interest rates - inflation) rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases, leading funds to prefer bonds or cash-like assets. This environment may last for years, resulting in gold being 'unable to rise' for a long time.
The third is sentiment and narrative exhaustion. High position purchases are often based on narratives such as 'hedging, anti-inflation, currency depreciation,' but once these expectations are priced in by the market, subsequent logical validity may not lead to further price increases, but rather into a digestion phase.

Historically, similar situations have occurred multiple times: after a major bull market, gold often needs several years or even longer to digest its valuation through fluctuations. For those who bought at high positions, if there are no wave operations or averaging down, they easily fall into a state of passive holding where 'nominal prices do not reach new highs for many years,' and then it becomes a decade.

#特朗普希望尽快结束对伊朗战争 Trump's meaning is: to set up, to save.

If this continues, in the next round the public will not elect Republican candidates for president.

#美国加密法案再次遇阻 Big Pancake $BTC has fallen below 66000, without positive news it is negative news, and it will decline slowly, this is a bear market.

#张雪峰 People in the crypto world always stay up late, families should rest early, a dog's life is important.
Money can be earned again, but once life is gone, it's truly gone.

#特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突 Trump will definitely write a book called: 'The Stock Market Master'

The fur industry is really about to go under, the backpack exchange has many people who have tried to profit but have been countered, it's too hard.

Still, let's invest steadily in Bitcoin. $BTC

Today's Key Insight: The market is in a state of extreme fear (Fear & Greed Index 11), $BTC prices are stable around $70,630, but face potential downward pressure, such as the $40,000 bottom test anticipated by analysts. BTC on-chain indicators show 'fair valuation' (MVRV 1.298) and 'undervalued' (NVT 30.7), funding rates are neutral, and short-term rebounds should be cautious of selling pressure.

Last year, I asked Mr. Lou to help me buy new zkpass at Kaito $ZKP . Today, the remaining 50% of the tokens have been unlocked, and I've recovered a little bit.
However, after calculating, it turns out that at that time, zpk was below the issue price. Even with the 50% tokens unlocked during the holiday, it still resulted in a loss.
Everything has its cycle; making money from new projects only lasts for the first month or two. Most later projects end up losing money.

For the Perle project, I didn't participate,
But after taking a look, 100% of those who did participate ended up losing money, and I didn’t see any retail investors from the Chinese community getting airdrops.

At that time, a group member asked me, and I said not to participate,

A group member reported that after two months of effort, they had badges all over but made no gains,
I looked around on X, and it was basically the same, with no returns,

At that time, I saw that all KOLs were concentrated on propaganda, which was too obvious,
I didn’t have the urge to participate, and luckily I didn’t, otherwise it would have been a waste of effort.

Last night, I watched Liu Xiaopai's latest episode of the AI Programming Deep Sea Circle live stream. Last year, I was busy participating but neglected AI. I didn’t earn much from participating, and I didn’t learn AI in depth, feeling like I missed out on sesame seeds while losing the watermelon.
The way of getting benefits in web3 has changed; even if the project party raises a lot of funds, they won’t give out many airdrops to retail investors anymore. It’s hard to expect any wealth effect again; in the future, participating will likely only earn a little pocket money.
In the future, I should focus more on writing AI, as I’m really afraid that if I don’t learn AI, I will be eliminated.

Yesterday, I communicated with Brother Sun, and his wool-pulling studio wants to transition to foreign trade.
Brother Sun is very interesting. Last time he took me to visit a wool-pulling studio in Dongguan with over a hundred people, learning from others' methods.
This time he plans to transition and get involved in foreign trade, and he's also pulling me along to research it together.
The cryptocurrency circle is too difficult, wool-pulling is no longer viable, and they actually want to change careers to do web2.
Actually, I wouldn't reject web2 either; a white cat or a black cat, as long as it can make money, it's a good cat.
Wherever there is an opportunity, just go there.

Yesterday, I happily activated Twitter Blue V with my Bitget U card, and in the evening I found that X was banned. I guess I know the reason; it's because when I tried to pay with my phone, it was always rejected. I switched several nodes to try to make the payment, but I didn't expect to get banned because of that. X is too strict, banning even Premium subscribers. I appealed, but I don't know if it will be restored, because this is the second time my account has been banned. The last time was a few years ago, and it took many days to get it restored. I don't know if it will be unbanned this time; the foreigners' work efficiency is also very slow. If it can be unbanned, I won't have to frequently change my VPN anymore.

Does cryptocurrency count as securities? The SEC has clarified this time.
This is considered one of the most significant events in the recent cryptocurrency industry.

Today, the SEC made it clear what cryptocurrency tokens are considered 'securities' (which will be strictly regulated); and which are not securities (freely traded like ordinary goods).

For ten years, no one knew whether the cryptocurrency assets in hand counted as securities. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins directly announced: 'All of this ends today!'

The SEC has officially established four categories of cryptocurrency assets that do not belong to securities:
1. Digital commodities: Including $BTC , $ETH , $SOL , XRP, DOGE, and other mainstream coins;
2. Digital collectibles: NFTs and meme coins;
3. Digital tools: ENS domain names and utility tokens;
4. Payment stablecoins: Compliant stablecoins that meet the GENIUS Act;
Only one category remains under securities law regulation—tokenized stocks and bonds;
He concluded with a statement that made the audience laugh: 'We (the SEC) are no longer the all-encompassing Securities and Everything Commission!'

Three major benefits and market impacts of cryptocurrency
Clear regulations;
Stimulate innovation, benefiting DeFi/airdrops;
Acceleration of institutional/mainstream adoption, catalyzing a long-term bull market.

$ETH will double again to break even.

Today's market has improved, Bitcoin $BTC is now 73000+, Ethereum $ETH 2200+, there's a bit of a bullish comeback feeling.
Legendary trader Pigeon Eugene Ng Ah Sio has turned bullish, believing that
"Although global risks are declining, the strong momentum of cryptocurrencies is still worth paying attention to, as this marks the first signs of relative strength since the drop from 60000 points. While I do not claim that the bottom has been reached, buying strong performance after breaking through the consolidation range is a risk control execution strategy that I favor.
Multiple indicators also show a very natural rounded bottom formation, leading me to believe that the cryptocurrency trend is becoming positive in the short term."
I watched this guy's operations during last year's bull market peak, quite accurate; I wonder if it will be accurate this time.

Last year, Kaito had participated in the new boundless tokens, and now they can claim the remaining 50%. In just half a year, the token $ZKC has already dropped over 90% in price, which is almost the same as going to zero.
If anyone has been holding it or bought it on the secondary market, they must be losing a lot; this thing has no bottom at all.
For airdropped or newly launched tokens, selling immediately is the most correct choice.

Tonight, Binance launched a super earning coin activity, which is very suitable for large holders to participate in. This time there are no stablecoins involved, only mainstream coins like BTC, BNB, ETH, etc. However, it's first come first served, so if you want to participate, hurry up and join.

The Ethereum Foundation has finally stopped directly dumping on-chain and instead chose to sell 5000 units $ETH directly off-market to Bitmine, which is Tom Lee's organization. The transaction originated from the EF Safe multi-signature wallet, and the on-chain transfer has been confirmed without disturbing the public market.

Outlook: In the short term (1-2 weeks), the bullish trend continues, with a positive outlook for $2100-$2200. If reserves continue to decrease and EF staking progresses, the monthly high will be tested. In the long term, diversification of the treasury (staking output) will reduce selling pressure, and this event will instead act as a catalyst for accumulation.

Lobster's first experience, today I installed openclaw on the mac mini that has been dusty for a long time,
The installation process was very smooth, I haven't installed it on a Windows computer, but it shouldn't be too complicated,
This thing actually charges hundreds of dollars for the installation fee on Xianyu and Xiaohongshu, it's really good at making money,
In fact, installing lobster is just the beginning, it's like a 4S store giving you a car, but if you want to drive, you need to burn gasoline, and gasoline costs money to buy,
To run lobster, you need to spend money to buy tokens,
Openclaw is just a framework that calls external large models, the real cost lies in token consumption—during task execution, consumption can reach several times that of ordinary AI,
I used minimaxi, and I didn’t use it much; I just let it install a few skills, which cost me 8 yuan in tokens. If used heavily, tokens will be consumed a lot,
Every command burns money, and the more dialogue turns, the faster the consumption, because AI will retrieve the context and read the previous commands again, thus tokens will burn more and more,
For most people, I really think there’s no need to follow the trend to use this thing,
On one hand, lobster consumes too many tokens, on the other hand, the permissions are too broad. If you use a common computer, lobster doesn’t know what outrageous things it might do, unless you specifically set up a computer to run this.
In addition to the openclaw installed on the local machine, you can also use MaxClaw, kimi-claw, gateclaw, etc. online directly. A few days ago, I played with gateclaw, which can connect to tg and use the Claude Sonnet 4.6 model, which also counted as satisfying my lobster cravings.
For me, for now, using chatgpt, manus, gemini, kimi, z.ai, minimaxi, and other AI tools is already sufficient.
It’s not that lobster is bad, but it currently doesn't help me much.
I plan to uninstall lobster in a few days.

Yesterday's big pie $BTC once surged to 73000+, Ethereum $ETH surged to 2200+,
I thought it had broken through and would lead to a small rise, but unexpectedly it fell again today,
It turns out it's hard for the bull to return, so be prepared for long-term fluctuations,
Now the hot topic is all about AI, those companies mining big pie are now working on AI computing power,
Funds are not in web3, so it cannot be ruled out that there may continue to drop further, after all, the bear market does not say bottom.

#比特币升回7万

Today $BTC and $ETH have risen again, and one positive news is:
BlackRock has launched the world's first Ethereum ETF that supports staking - iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB), which will officially be listed and traded on NASDAQ today (Thursday).
This marks a further embrace of the ETH staking mechanism by institutional-grade products, providing investors with the dual appeal of price exposure and staking yields.
The ETF will hold spot ETH and use part of its assets for network staking, meeting investors' demand for yields while retaining the custody and trading advantages of the ETF.
Today's ETF listing is a clear catalyst, and it's recommended to monitor the first day's AUM of NASDAQ ETHB and changes in the on-chain ETH staking volume.
Barring any surprises, I am bullish on ETH in the short term.
However, the market is constantly changing, and the above does not constitute financial advice.

Today I suddenly decided to upgrade the helmet (braavos) wallet for the browser. The wallet always had an upgrade prompt, and today I finally couldn't resist upgrading it. Since the wallet only had a little ETH, but the helmet wallet upgrade required $STRK for gas, I had no choice but to withdraw STRK from the exchange. The fee was really cheap, only 0.0033U, which is truly inexpensive.

Then I found that the meme coin $brother I bought earlier has already gone to zero. It has really gone to zero. I found that the ultimate destination of all meme coins is to go to zero. The flip-flop wallet on the STARKNET chain (Ready Wallet, formerly Argent) does not require an upgrade, and it supports ETH or STRK for gas when swapping, which is very user-friendly. In fact, I think the strk chain is very safe because for wallet transactions, you can set up 2FA verification and also bind an email verification code. Every time there is a change in funds, web2 verification methods are required. I think this method is safer than multi-signature wallets; even if you lose the private key, the wallet's assets are still safe. The STRK wallet is really suitable for holding coins. Such a good product, but the market doesn't buy it, or rather, it was severely overvalued when it launched, so now the price of strk tokens has dropped by 99% compared to its peak.