张不烦
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有事请联系：🌍公众号：张不烦加密圈 币安新老用户币手续费永久返还邀请码：BTC887。所有理解均来源于交易书籍📚、宏观经济学、人性、看别人不如多看书！
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Friendly reminder that it has approached below 10, and anything below 10 has generally yielded positive returns after a year.
《📊 BTC Showdown 65,500: Is it the "golden pit" that falls back, or the starting point of a one-sided decline?》
The big coin tested the previous daily upward starting point with increased volume last night. Although the expectation of a pullback to 69.5k has failed, the current market divergence is worthy of every trader's praise and collection:
🔸 Key Position: 65,500
This is the daily line launch point going to 76k. Currently, a significant "volume stacking stagnation" has appeared here on the 4-hour level, with high trading volume accompanied by small real K-lines, a typical signal of demand intervention, but the continuity of demand is not strong.
Strategy: If a pin bar forms with increased volume at this point, the probability of a rebound is extremely high.
🔸 Extreme Defense Position: 62,500 - 64,500
If 65.5k breaks down with increased volume, the market will enter the bottom of the fluctuation range. This is the last line of defense for bulls; once it is lost, the medium-term structure will completely turn pessimistic.
If there is obvious price support in this range, it is still the highest point of risk-reward for seeking short-term longs.
🔸 Data Divergence: Bearish fuel is ready
While the price is falling, the open interest is not decreasing but increasing, combined with a significant shift to negative rates. This means that the current rally does not require spot buy orders; as long as the price rebounds and triggers short stop-losses, it will create a "short squeeze" rally.
💡 Operation Guide: Keep an eye on the pin action at 65,500. As long as there is no continuous increase in volume decline, this is the cornerstone of the counterattack.
Are you taking a quick rebound at 65.5k, or waiting for big fish at 62.5k?👇
The big coin tested the previous daily upward starting point with increased volume last night. Although the expectation of a pullback to 69.5k has failed, the current market divergence is worthy of every trader's praise and collection:
🔸 Key Position: 65,500
This is the daily line launch point going to 76k. Currently, a significant "volume stacking stagnation" has appeared here on the 4-hour level, with high trading volume accompanied by small real K-lines, a typical signal of demand intervention, but the continuity of demand is not strong.
Strategy: If a pin bar forms with increased volume at this point, the probability of a rebound is extremely high.
🔸 Extreme Defense Position: 62,500 - 64,500
If 65.5k breaks down with increased volume, the market will enter the bottom of the fluctuation range. This is the last line of defense for bulls; once it is lost, the medium-term structure will completely turn pessimistic.
If there is obvious price support in this range, it is still the highest point of risk-reward for seeking short-term longs.
🔸 Data Divergence: Bearish fuel is ready
While the price is falling, the open interest is not decreasing but increasing, combined with a significant shift to negative rates. This means that the current rally does not require spot buy orders; as long as the price rebounds and triggers short stop-losses, it will create a "short squeeze" rally.
💡 Operation Guide: Keep an eye on the pin action at 65,500. As long as there is no continuous increase in volume decline, this is the cornerstone of the counterattack.
Are you taking a quick rebound at 65.5k, or waiting for big fish at 62.5k?👇
Finding BTC Reversal Zones Using 'Position Holder Ratio' and 'Funding Rate'
Market leaders often use game theory to create reverse liquidity, establishing counter positions that align with their true 'hopes.' In my opinion, directional judgment in trading can refer more to game theory. Although the characteristics of participants' gaming behavior cannot predict short-term ups and downs, they can provide high-probability references for potential reversal zones.
This article attempts to list two indicators that are closer to the fundamentals of game theory. The saying, 'The truth is held by a few,' serves as a good reference for timing reversals.
1. Long and short position holder ratio
As shown in Figure 1, over the past few months, we have seen in the BTCUSDT perpetual contract trading pair on Binance (which has the greatest market impact), when the long and short position holder ratio falls below 1, meaning that there are more short sellers than long buyers in the market, BTC will begin to rise.
This article attempts to list two indicators that are closer to the fundamentals of game theory. The saying, 'The truth is held by a few,' serves as a good reference for timing reversals.
1. Long and short position holder ratio
As shown in Figure 1, over the past few months, we have seen in the BTCUSDT perpetual contract trading pair on Binance (which has the greatest market impact), when the long and short position holder ratio falls below 1, meaning that there are more short sellers than long buyers in the market, BTC will begin to rise.
$BTC is currently at its important support area.
If Bitcoin can hold the level between $65,000 and $66,000, there may be a rise of 6%-8%.
If Bitcoin can hold the level between $65,000 and $66,000, there may be a rise of 6%-8%.
$ETH hovering around $2,000.
Regaining this area could push Ethereum towards the levels of $2,100 to $2,150.
If Ethereum fails to reclaim the $2,000 mark, it is expected to further decline to new lows.
Regaining this area could push Ethereum towards the levels of $2,100 to $2,150.
If Ethereum fails to reclaim the $2,000 mark, it is expected to further decline to new lows.
Bad news: Bitcoin is about to have six consecutive monthly declines.
Good news: Bitcoin has never had seven consecutive monthly declines.
Is history meant to be broken or continued?
Both bulls and bears are waiting for this answer.
Good news: Bitcoin has never had seven consecutive monthly declines.
Is history meant to be broken or continued?
Both bulls and bears are waiting for this answer.
A neat grid of orders appeared near 51K
Each transaction 7 million totaling 370 million
What does it mean, dog house? 🥲🥲🥲
Each transaction 7 million totaling 370 million
What does it mean, dog house? 🥲🥲🥲
A big encryption is coming
Shorts are actively opening positions, and the funding rate is negative, with many buy orders placed around 65k
Since we are going to play our cards openly, either we are very strong or very confident; otherwise, we are easily targeted.
Shorts are actively opening positions, and the funding rate is negative, with many buy orders placed around 65k
Since we are going to play our cards openly, either we are very strong or very confident; otherwise, we are easily targeted.
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