资深分析师--老余

Gold Price Trend Analysis for Next Week:
This week, the gold price fluctuated over $300, first dropping sharply and then rebounding, overall stabilizing. At the beginning of the week, the gold price continued to fall, reaching a low of 4351, after which it began a strong rebound, with a daily increase of 3.18% on the 25th, the largest increase in recent days; however, the good times did not last long, as there was another drop of over 2% on the 26th, which erased a significant portion of the previous day's gains; in the last two days, the gold price gradually stabilized, rebounding slightly on key support levels, ultimately closing the week up. The main forces at play are two opposing factors: the Federal Reserve's tough stance, delayed interest rate cuts, and a strong dollar pressuring gold prices; but the tense situation in the Middle East is supporting gold prices due to safe-haven demand.

Latest gold market trend analysis
On Friday’s European session morning, spot gold traded around $4451 per ounce. On Thursday (March 26), Trump announced that at Iran's request, the deadline for suspending strikes on Iranian energy facilities would be extended by 10 days to April 6, seemingly a goodwill gesture to promote negotiations. However, spot gold plummeted by 2.8% that day to $4377.85 per ounce, and April futures fell even more sharply by 3.9% to $4376.3 per ounce. Since the outbreak of the conflict between the U.S. and Israel against Iran, gold prices have fallen a cumulative 17%, completely breaking the traditional logic that geopolitical conflicts are beneficial for gold. In this unclear conflict situation, oil prices surged, inflationary pressures increased, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year rose to 40%. The U.S. dollar index strengthened for three consecutive days, putting significant pressure on gold prices.

Latest gold market trend analysis
On Friday morning in the Asian market, spot gold is trading around $4382 per ounce. On Thursday (March 26), the US announced an extension of the deadline for strikes related to Iran, seemingly easing the situation, but gold actually fell sharply by 2.8% to $4377.85, while April futures gold plummeted by 3.9% to $4376.3. Since the escalation of the current Middle East conflict, gold prices have cumulatively dropped by 17%, completely diverging from the previous risk-averse upward trend. Meanwhile, oil prices have surged, inflation pressures are rising, and market expectations for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve are also increasing, with the dollar strengthening continuously, which directly suppresses gold prices.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Thursday morning, the European session saw spot gold fluctuate slightly lower, currently trading around 4434. On Wednesday (March 25), gold prices surged nearly 3% during the day, peaking at around 4600 USD, ultimately closing at 4506.49 USD, with an increase of about 0.72%. April futures gold rose even more, up 3.4% to 4552.30 USD. This volatility is driven on one hand by market risk aversion due to uncertainty in geopolitical conflicts, and on the other hand, there is a tug-of-war between falling oil prices, cooling inflation expectations, and escalating risk. As a classic safe-haven asset, gold is at a critical trend turning point.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Thursday morning in Asia, spot gold fluctuated slightly lower, currently hovering around the 4500 mark. Spot gold surged nearly 3% during the day on Wednesday (March 25), soaring to around 4600 USD, and finally closed at 4506.49 USD, with an increase of about 0.72%. April futures gold rose even more, up 3.4% to 4552.30 USD. This wave of volatility is partly due to market concerns about instability leading to safe-haven buying, while also being pulled between falling oil prices, cooling inflation expectations, and geopolitical risks. Gold is at a critical turning point.
From the daily perspective, gold formed a candlestick with upper and lower shadows yesterday, and today there is a slight correction, overall showing a pullback after a rise. The KDJ and RSI indicators have started to turn down from the overbought zone but are still in the bullish area, indicating that the upward momentum has weakened but has not completely turned weak. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages continue to rise, providing support for the gold price, which is currently trading above the moving averages. The short-term trend is mainly sideways. At key levels, there is strong resistance at 4600-4602 USD above, which encountered resistance yesterday; below, we first look at support at 4486-4500 USD, with today's low already reaching 4486.42 USD. If it breaks below here, we may look towards 4320-4350 USD; if support holds, there is a high probability of continuing to oscillate at high levels.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
During the day on Wednesday, international gold saw a significant rebound, returning to around 4600 USD, with bullish sentiment beginning to warm up. Previously, gold had dropped sharply, at one point falling to around 4100 USD, marking a nearly four-month low, and the weekly decline was also substantial, mainly due to the market oscillating between geopolitical situations and policy expectations.
On the news front, bullish and bearish messages are pulling against each other: on one hand, some positive signals have emerged from the negotiations between the United States and Iran, easing market concerns about escalating conflict; on the other hand, Iran has also expressed a hardline stance, and the geopolitical risks have not completely disappeared, leaving a significant degree of uncertainty in the future trend.

Analysis of the latest trends in gold market
On Wednesday morning in Asia, spot gold once again stabilized at the $4500 per ounce mark. Various parties, including Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, are mediating to push U.S. and Iranian officials to hold talks within the next 48 hours. Gold has recently experienced a significant decline of over 20% from its early-year peak, and on Tuesday (March 25), it welcomed a volatile rebound, closing up 1.5% at $4474.26 per ounce. This rebound is not just a simple trend reversal but the result of intense competition between bulls and bears intertwined with geopolitical situations and macro-financial environments. On one side, there is diplomatic contact between the U.S. and Iran under tense circumstances, while on the other side, fluctuations in crude oil have led to changes in inflation and interest rate expectations. Gold is currently at a critical decision-making point.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Tuesday, around the European market opening, spot gold fluctuated slightly, currently trading around $4412. Gold prices broke below $4100 on Monday and have weakened for nine consecutive trading days. However, as Trump indicated a delay in strikes related to Iran and mentioned negotiations for a ceasefire, the decline in gold prices quickly narrowed, ultimately re-establishing itself above $4400. West Texas Intermediate crude is now around $92 per barrel, with oil prices dropping nearly 9% on Monday. Although the U.S. claims to have reached consensus on key issues in discussions with Iran, the Iranian side has not acknowledged this, and further developments will depend on Iran's statements and actions.

Latest trend analysis of gold prices:
On Tuesday morning in Asia, spot gold rose slightly, initially dropping 0.7% to $4360 per ounce, then quickly rebounding, currently up 0.6%, trading around $4425 per ounce. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, and gold should have strengthened due to safe-haven support, but on Monday (March 23), the market showed extreme behavior. Trump made a hard statement over the weekend about striking Iranian energy facilities within 48 hours, which heightened market panic. Oil prices surged, inflation expectations rose, Fed rate cut expectations cooled, the dollar strengthened, and gold faced significant sell-offs, plummeting over 8.7% in a single day, hitting a low near $4099 per ounce, approaching the 200-day moving average support, creating a new four-month low, with nine consecutive trading days of declines, and last week recorded the worst weekly drop since 1983.

Analysis of the latest trends in gold prices:
Spot gold has been very volatile today. On Monday, March 23, the gold price dropped to around $4165 per ounce, with a daily decline of nearly 7%. Since the beginning of this week, it has dropped more than 9%. Although the situation between the U.S. and Iran is still escalating, pushing up energy prices, gold has not experienced a safe-haven rally. Instead, due to inflationary pressures from soaring oil prices and changes in expectations regarding central bank policies, funds have been reducing their positions, and market sentiment has shifted from risk aversion to concerns about tightening.
From a technical perspective, the gold price has broken through multiple important moving averages and shows a clear weakening in the short-term trend. The trading volume has significantly increased, indicating concentrated selling pressure, and bearish forces are strengthening, suggesting continued short-term pressure. The daily price level of gold has clearly retreated from its highs, with the previously strong trend now shifting to a weak consolidation. After encountering resistance above $4500, the price quickly fell, facing heavy pressure above. The key support to watch below is at $4000; if it breaks, further significant declines could follow. The resistance above is in the $4350-$4400 range. The RSI indicator has dropped from high levels to below neutral, indicating that the bulls have lost most of their strength.

Gold Market Trend Analysis for Next Week:
This week, the international gold market experienced a significant decline, with Thursday's early morning Federal Reserve interest rate decision being the main trigger. The meeting raised inflation expectations and clearly postponed the interest rate cut timeline, directly breaking the bullish expectations for a rate cut. Coupled with the rise of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, a large amount of capital was sold off in gold. Gold prices plummeted over $500 in two days, consecutively breaking through the key support levels of 4700 and 4600, and closing below the 4500 mark. The weekly chart showed a large bearish candle, officially marking the beginning of a medium-term adjustment. Although this drop was swift and fierce, it also confirmed the previous judgment: without the two major supports of safe-haven demand and interest rate cuts, gold has officially entered a deep adjustment phase, and bears have completely taken control of the situation.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Friday's European market early session, spot gold fell slightly, currently fluctuating around $4666 per ounce. The entire gold market has seen a continuous decline for seven days, with prices dropping sharply. On Thursday, spot gold plunged directly by 3.5%, closing at $4650, with an intra-day drop exceeding 6%, reaching $4503.18, marking a new low since early February. The U.S. April futures gold also dropped significantly by 5.9%, closing at $4605.70. Gold, which was previously favored for its safe-haven and anti-inflation properties, is now being suppressed by high interest rates, and the continuous decline has left many long investors anxious.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Thursday during the European session, spot gold continued to decline weakly, currently priced around 4710.75 USD/ounce. On Wednesday, gold experienced intense fluctuations, once approaching the 4800 USD mark, ultimately closing at 4818.83 USD, down 3.73%. During the session, it also created a low point of 4807 USD, the lowest in over a month. On one hand, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, with attacks on Iran's large gas fields triggering a chain reaction, Brent crude oil stabilizing above 110 USD, increasing inflationary pressure, and leading the market to lower expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve; on the other hand, the Federal Reserve's latest decision maintained interest rates at 3.50%-3.75%, while also releasing signals that inflation is stubborn and that the pace of rate cuts will be very cautious, significantly strengthening the US dollar, with dual pressure directly suppressing gold prices.

Gold Latest Market Trend Analysis:
On Thursday (March 19), in the Asian market early session, spot gold fluctuated at a low level, currently trading around $4844.75 per ounce. On Wednesday (March 18), spot gold experienced intense volatility, briefly approaching the $4800 mark, closing at $4818.83 per ounce, a daily decline of 3.73%, hitting the lowest level in over a month at $4807 per ounce during the session. On one hand, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has sharply escalated, especially with the attack on Iran's Pars gas field triggering a chain reaction of retaliation, keeping Brent crude oil prices above $110, heightening inflation concerns and suppressing expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve; on the other hand, the Federal Reserve's latest decision maintains interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling stubborn inflation and a cautious path for rate cuts, which boosted the dollar index significantly, collectively putting pressure on gold prices.

Gold Latest Market Trend Analysis:
On Wednesday, the Asian session saw gold prices fluctuating around 5000 USD. The overall market is relatively cautious as everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Additionally, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, leading most investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach. Geopolitically, there are no signs of easing in the conflict, with Israel targeting Iranian officials and Iran responding. The United States has also signaled a possible expansion of its strike range, all of which provides safe-haven support for gold.
From a daily perspective, gold prices are below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, showing a weak trend. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are downward, placing pressure on gold prices, with rebounds mostly serving as corrections. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating weakened downward momentum, but a true stabilization has not yet occurred; the 1-hour moving averages are tangled, with obvious competition between bulls and bears. The upper resistance is first seen at 5010-5025 USD, with stronger resistance at 5040 USD above; the lower support is seen at 4980-4990 USD, with key support at 4967-4970 USD. In the Asian and European sessions on Wednesday, if gold prices are pressured above 5010, it is likely to continue testing support downward; if it holds above 4970, a slight fluctuation repair is probable, but a break below will lead to further declines. In summary, for today's short-term operations, Old Yu suggests primarily shorting on rebounds, with supplementary long positions on pullbacks. The upper short-term focus is on resistance at the 5045-5065 line, while the lower short-term focus is on support at the 4970-4950 line.

Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis:
On Tuesday (Beijing time, March 17), in the European market's early session, spot gold traded around $5015.87 per ounce. The gold price slightly retreated on Monday, as market concerns about the ongoing tensions in the Middle East could drive up inflation, thereby keeping interest rates elevated for a longer period. This factor overshadowed the support brought by the weakening dollar; gold price fluctuations are primarily dominated by three major factors, with a slight advantage for the bears amid mixed signals. On the bearish side, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have continued to cool, with the probability of a rate cut in March essentially at zero and the June probability falling to 35%-40%. High inflation combined with rising oil prices strengthens expectations for high interest rates, while both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthen, increasing the holding costs of gold. Additionally, some profit-taking has exacerbated the volatility. On the bullish side, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has not yet eased, and there is uncertainty regarding navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, providing safe-haven support for gold prices. The long-term logic of global central banks buying gold remains unchanged, and the trend of de-dollarization provides medium- to long-term support for gold prices, with technical buying limiting the downside potential for gold prices.

Latest Analysis of Gold Prices:
On Monday morning, international gold began to retreat, with spot gold briefly falling to around $4980. Although the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, gold did not continue to rise as a safe haven but instead showed significant selling pressure at high levels. The main reason is the market's rising expectations for inflation; opinions on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have also changed, with more people believing that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates as quickly as previously thought, and expectations for U.S. Treasury yields have been raised. Gold itself does not yield interest, and once interest rate expectations rise, its attractiveness naturally declines. Currently, the market is still focused on how the Middle East situation will develop. Over the weekend, the actions of the U.S. and Israel against Iran continued to escalate, with the U.S. military striking Iran's key oil export hub, Khark Island. The market generally believes that 90% of Iran's oil exports rely on this location, which has directly intensified tensions in the energy market. Iran has also warned that if the conflict continues to escalate, it will retaliate against relevant oil facilities, significantly increasing risks to energy supply, and oil prices opened notably higher on Monday.

Latest Analysis of Gold Prices:
On Monday morning, international gold began to pull back, with spot gold briefly dropping to around $4980. Although the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, gold did not continue its safe-haven rise; instead, there was a clear selling pressure at high levels. The main reason is the rising market expectations for inflation, and the views on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have also changed. More and more people believe that the Fed will not cut interest rates as quickly as previously thought, and expectations for U.S. Treasury yields have been raised. Gold itself does not yield interest; once expectations for interest rates rise, its appeal naturally declines. Currently, the market is still focused on how the situation in the Middle East will unfold. Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel's actions against Iran continued to escalate, with the U.S. military striking Iran's crucial oil export hub, Khark Island. The market generally believes that 90% of Iran's oil exports rely on this hub, which has directly heightened tensions in the energy market. Iran has also warned that if the conflict continues to escalate, it will retaliate against related oil facilities, significantly increasing the risk to energy supplies, leading to a noticeable rise in oil prices when trading opened on Monday.

Latest gold market trend analysis:
On Monday during the Asian session, gold prices fell, with spot gold dropping to around $4980. Although the situation in the Middle East remains tense, gold did not continue to rise; instead, it was heavily sold at high levels, creating significant pressure. Last Sunday, Russia stated that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine were temporarily halted because the United States is currently busy dealing with issues in the Middle East; the Russian side mentioned that the front line is holding steady, but did not commit firmly and is still open to talks. This implies that the U.S. is bogged down by the Middle Eastern conflict, unable to focus on Ukraine. As long as the situation in the Middle East does not cool down, it will be difficult for Russia and Ukraine to sit down and negotiate. Some analysts suggest that the longer the Middle Eastern issue drags on, the harder it will be to lower oil prices, and inflation will remain high, which is actually bearish for gold.