The intraday market generally maintains a triangular convergence range oscillation, with relatively limited fluctuations, indicating a clear divergence of long and short forces at this point, in a stage of accumulation. For short-term operations, relying on the high and low points of the range for high selling and low buying is manageable in terms of risk, but one should be alert to the possible breakout after an extended consolidation period—usually, the longer the convergence, the stronger the subsequent breakout.
Today's thinking was clarified in the early morning: to lay out long positions near the previous low around 67300. The early morning price tested the support at 68000 effectively, and then prompted the entry of long positions, moving up to around 69500 to complete take profit, capturing about 1500 points of space.
In terms of trend structure, after the daily line big drop broke below the mid-track support, the downward trend temporarily halted near 68000, and it is currently continuously testing the effectiveness of this support position. Whether it will continue to decline after consolidation or stabilize and rebound from here still requires waiting for a breakout signal. From a small cycle perspective, the fluctuation range is gradually narrowing, approaching a directional choice. The key observation above is whether it can stabilize and break through around 69000; if it cannot stabilize effectively, the bulls will still be under pressure; the key support below is at the 68000 level, and if it fails to hold, it may further explore the previous low near 67300—this is both the previous starting point and is considered the last defense line for the bulls. If it breaks below, the space below will further open up.
In summary, my current personal judgment is that the fourth wave rebound structure has not yet completed, and there is a possibility of another retest to confirm support at the daily level. The afternoon strategy will continue the early morning viewpoint, relying on 67300, focusing on rebound opportunities.
Operational Reference: BTC: Focus on the support near 68000; if it stabilizes, you can try going long, targeting the 70000 level. ETH: The rhythm is synchronized with BTC, focus on the support near 2040; if it stabilizes at $ETH , you can try going long, targeting the 2100 level. $BTC $BNB
https://app.binance.com/uni-qr/cspa/38228702509265?r=S73FRP9Z&l=en-US&uco=QBOkZTXab0Evu2zK4GeNog&uc=app_square_share_link&us=copylink The weekend is open for short-term trading $BTC $BNB
Intraday Review: The market has once again demonstrated its unpredictable nature. Yesterday, prices attempted a second surge in the morning but were blocked at the 71606 level, which was not only a technical resistance but also a precise blow to the confidence of the bulls. Subsequently, the market retreated like a tide, easily piercing through the psychological barrier of 70000 in the afternoon. The sideways consolidation did not bring about a turnaround; instead, it was the calm before the storm of the decline. In the evening, the bears returned, pushing prices down to around 69000. We have repeatedly emphasized that 70000 is the recent dividing line between bulls and bears; breaching this level means the scale has completely tipped in favor of the bears, and the acceleration of the decline has become the dominant theme. The movement in the U.S. market perfectly confirmed this: after a brief respite at 69000, the rebound abruptly stopped before the 70000 level, followed by a sharper decline, with prices breaking below 69000 and 68500 in the midnight hours, until now they are at the gates of 68000. In terms of operations, decisively following the bears after breaking 70000 is wise, and profits up to 68500 come naturally. However, the market will never allow you to feel completely comfortable— the operational flaws during that decline after consolidating at 69000 are a vivid lesson it has taught us: always respect the market's sudden variations in planning.
Wednesday Market Review: The Fluctuation and Tug-of-War is not "Exhausting", but "Charging Up"!
1. Major Cycle: The Bearish "Fourth Wave Rebound" Has Not Broken Out, Bulls Have the Opportunity for a "Surprise Attack" on Capital
On the daily chart, the overall trend is still anchored in the bearish fourth wave rebound (this is a typical structure of a "corrective wave" in wave theory: the rebound after a prior decline is used to digest bearish momentum while setting the tone for the subsequent trend). The major pullback at the beginning of the week accurately touched the upward support level on the daily chart (which can be understood as the "downward brake band") — the trend has not been broken, just like "a spring compressed to its limit, a rebound is inevitable".
Short-term direction? Bulls are dominant! Why? Because the space above is safer than that below: from a structural perspective, the rebound's "ceiling" has not yet been touched, while the support below (such as daily support) has already been tested for resilience. Therefore, after hitting the bottom, the "continuation of the rebound" is a high-probability scenario; the rhythm just depends on whether it is "sideways consolidation" or "accelerated breakthrough".
2. Key Levels: "70000" is the Lifeline for Bulls and Bears, "71500" is the Bullish Charge
70000 Level: In recent days, the market has repeatedly "stuck points", which fundamentally is the competition between bulls and bears over the "dividing point". After a breakdown in the early morning, quickly reclaiming it indicates that the bulls have a "very strong intention to protect the market" — standing above 70000, one can at least see a continuation space of around 1500 points (this is the technical "inertial thrust": after breaking through a key level, funds will follow the trend to buy).
71500 Pressure Zone: Multiple highs have encountered resistance and retreated, like a "curtain". If the curtain is not lifted (breakthrough stabilization), the space above is "locked"; but once it is lifted, the "new battlefield" near 74500 will open up (because 71500 is a "small pressure", after breaking through, the resistance level switches to "psychological + technical double support", and funds will be more willing to chase the bulls).
3. Minor Cycle: "The Struggle for 70000" is the Surface, "Bulls Reclaiming Lost Ground" is the Essence
Today in the morning session/intraday, the struggle for the 70000 level is ongoing, but after yesterday's decline, the bulls quickly reclaimed lost ground and once again "tested pressure" upwards — this indicates that "the decline is just a washout, not a reversal". The strength of the pullback is weak, meaning that the "bulls are confident", and the probability of continuing to move upwards today is very high.
Summary: Don't be scared by the "fluctuations" today, keep a close eye on the support at 70000 and the pressure at 71500. $BTC
Trading is like a stream; it's not about a moment of rushing but about sustained resilience. Each retracement is for stronger accumulation; each fluctuation is for clearer direction. Holding onto critical support means holding onto the market's pulse and one's own rhythm.
Yesterday, after a strong rebound, the market re-entered the classic oscillation cycle before 'accumulation - breakout.' Bitcoin oscillated narrowly within the key psychological range of $71,800 - $70,000, while Ethereum transitioned within $2,100 - $2,200. The shrinking volume and narrowing amplitude of the market indicate the precursor to a new round of directional choice.
From a technical structure perspective, although the daily level has not shown a strong V-shaped reversal, a short-term bottoming pattern has begun to emerge. The price has repeatedly found effective support at the key level of $70,000, forming a clear 'support confirmation - gradual rise' pattern. Currently, the key resistance level is near yesterday's high of $71,800, where the previous dense accumulation area converges. A breakout with volume will open up upward space.
Intraday operation strategy: Continue to maintain a mildly bullish oscillation outlook, with $70,000 as defense. Gradually build long positions near this area during retracements, targeting the $71,500 - $71,800 range. If a volume breakout above $71,800 occurs, it can be seen as a right-side accumulation signal, targeting the resistance area of $73,000 - $73,500. $BTC $ETH $SOL $XAUT $DOGE
On Monday, a warm wind from the news combined with a technical resonance prompted the bulls to launch a strong counterattack.
In terms of intraday trends, the daytime showed a standard weak decline. As we pointed out in our previous analysis, a clear bearish outlook was given during the early morning phase. The short positions entered around 69000 accurately captured the oscillating decline rhythm, successfully probing down to around 67360, realizing over a thousand points of space. We originally expected the weak pattern to continue, with a probability of probing down to the 66400 line (near the upward trend line) to find support before starting a rebound.
However, the market changed drastically in the afternoon due to the unexpected favorable news from Trump. The bulls launched a strong attack under the strong boost, breaking through the 71000 mark, which also led to the passive liquidation of our short positions, which was quite unfortunate.
Faced with the sudden reversal of market sentiment, we promptly adjusted our strategy. After confirming the validity of the breakthrough, we quickly switched to a bullish stance and laid out long positions. Although the market then experienced a tortuous process of 'rally - pullback - rally again', the strategic direction was highly consistent with the final market trend, once again capturing over a thousand points of profit in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, resulting in a perfect outcome.
Currently, the trend shows a rally accompanied by a pullback, and the rhythm remains oscillating upward. After a second retest of the 70000 mark, if the market does not break down, then the bulls have expectations for continuation. The focus in the early morning is to observe the support strength at the 70000 mark, which serves as the current dividing line between bulls and bears, stabilizing suggests bullish continuation. In the midnight, we can continue to maintain a bullish outlook based on the 70000 mark.
Bitcoin (BTC): Directly long near 70500, targeting 72000 Ethereum (ETH): Directly long near 2135, targeting 2250$BTC $ETH #特朗普考虑结束伊朗冲突
$ETH 3/23 Monday Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis
During the weekend, Bitcoin successfully broke through the lower edge of the triangular convergence zone, disrupting the oscillation balance and opening an accelerated downward channel. Yesterday, we clearly indicated a reference entry zone of "69000-69500" during the session, and subsequently, the price broke down as expected, with the first target of 68000 accurately reached, validating the foresight and execution of the strategy. Currently, the price is steadily advancing towards the second target of 66400, and the trend momentum has not yet diminished. Ethereum followed suit, indicating a short position in the 2090-2120 range, with the second target of 2040 realized.
From a structural perspective, this decline is not the endpoint, but a continuation segment of the trend. A real reversal signal requires waiting for the "double bottom + retest confirmation of support" to appear—currently, no effective support zone has formed, and the rebound is weak, shrinking, and short-lived, which is a typical bearish corrective pattern. The trading strategy for the day is clear: a rebound presents a short opportunity, do not chase the decline, do not try to catch the bottom, and going with the trend is the way to go.
Bitcoin (BTC): Short near 68200, watch near 66400 Ethereum (ETH): Short near 2050, watch near 2000 #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅
During the weekend, Bitcoin successfully broke through the lower bound of the triangular convergence range, disrupting the oscillation balance and opening an accelerated downward channel. Yesterday, it was clearly indicated in the market with a reference entry zone of "69000-69500", and subsequently, the price broke down as expected, reaching the first target of 68000 precisely, validating the foresight and execution of the strategy. Currently, the price is steadily advancing towards the second target of 66400, and the trend momentum has not yet weakened. Ethereum followed suit, indicating to short in the 2090-2120 range, with the second target of 2040 realized.
From a structural perspective, this decline is not the endpoint, but a continuation segment of the trend. A true reversal signal requires waiting for the occurrence of "double bottom + pullback confirming support"—currently, an effective support area has not formed, and the rebound is weak, low volume, and brief, typical of a bearish correction pattern. The trading strategy for the day is clear: a rebound is an opportunity to short, do not chase declines, do not bottom fish, and going with the trend is the way to go.
Bitcoin (BTC): short near 68200, targeting around 66400 Ethereum (ETH): short near 2050, targeting around 2000 #黄金创43年来最大单周跌幅