TVBee

Expressing a viewpoint: When>Where>What
In Chinese: Timing>Location>People

First of all, choosing the right timing is the most important. In April 2025, buying Bitcoin, US stocks, and altcoins is feasible. Conversely, in October 2025, buying Bitcoin, US stocks, and altcoins will be difficult.

Secondly, choosing the right sector is extremely important.

In 2025:
◆ The highest increase in gold is about 72%,
◆ The highest increase in BTC is about 35%,
◆ The highest increase in the S&P 500 is about 18%,
◆ The total market value of cryptocurrencies excluding BTC, ETH, and stablecoins has a maximum increase of only 12.7% in 2025.

Finally, there's the choice of targets.

Teacher Bo invests in both cryptocurrencies and US stocks, but recently the focus has been on US stocks. When choosing investment targets, he wisely chose SNDK. Due to AI reasons, the storage sector has been in high demand, but Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have already experienced significant increases, so at that time, SNDK was in the market sentiment.

Recently, the US stock market has corrected. He again chose the relatively unpopular Meta to short and made a profit once more.

Since everyone says that choice is greater than effort, perhaps what we need to do first is choose the right timing, followed by the right sector, and finally the right target.

In a bear market, besides surviving, the most important thing is to learn. Brother Bee is learning technical analysis, whether it's macro analysis or project or stock research, combined with technical analysis, will yield better results.

Brother Bee's personal analysis framework is to use macro analysis (monetary policy and geopolitical factors) combined with technical aspects when analyzing timing.

To analyze sectors, it looks at industry narratives. The current hot topic is AI, which is relatively simple. However, Brother Bee will conduct more specific analyses. For example, he is not very optimistic about SNDK because SanDisk focuses on producing flash memory, rather than DRAM. Although both are storage, the demand for DRAM is stronger, while the demand for flash memory is relatively weaker.

As for choosing trading targets, Brother Bee will conduct fundamental analysis. For stocks, he combines financial reports and technical indicators for analysis. For token analysis, Brother Bee will analyze project technology, products, teams, financing, and operations, in conjunction with observing the market. However, the realization this round is to focus on the team and operations, as ultimately, the key to choosing investment targets is 'people'. Additionally, Brother Bee has a principle that if it cannot be held long-term, then there is no point in short-term trading.

Feel free to leave a message for further comments or corrections.

Should project parties engage in so-called "market value management"?

This has actually always been a controversial issue.

Some project parties believe that they should not manipulate coin prices under the guise of so-called "market value management" and should allow coin prices to be market-driven.

Others believe that there should be support for coin prices.

And some project parties are just manipulating and harvesting.

As Teacher Jeni mentioned: because project parties and VCs also need TGE to convert to cash to recover initial costs, TGE cannot be delayed too long.

In this round, many project parties missed the opportunity to TGE during the bullish market and had to choose to TGE during the bear market. They missed a good opportunity...

Therefore, Brother Bee believes:

Project parties may still need to have a certain analysis and judgment of the market conditions and trends.

╰✦ Case One

Brother Bee has encountered two projects that have performed relatively well, one is Kava, and the other is Debridge.

Kava had several collaborations between 2021 and 2024. Each time the project party promoted, the market rose.

It is important to note that the project party contacted Brother Bee before the promotion, so the article was prepared before the market started, indicating that the project party had a certain prediction of the trend.

╰✦ Case Two

deBridge is Brother Bee's observation:

Last year, the market bottomed out in April, and then in June, the deBridge project began using all protocol revenues to buy back DBR. This was followed by a rise in the market.

If we say that the timing of the buyback start was a coincidence, then DBR went live on Coinbase at the end of October last year, and it can no longer be said to be a coincidence, as it happened to catch the good timing at the end of the bull market.

Therefore, the final question is that project technology and products, operations and promotions, market analysis and market management are two very important dimensions. Do you think market value management and the judgment of market conditions can become two other important dimensions for project research and investment?

No, this is a bear market.

Is there any exchange or project team that sends a clear gift box? How creative!
🤣🤣🤣

The cross-chain bridge is indeed a magical track!

Everything can be cross-chain, everything needs to be cross-chain, everything must be cross-chain.

When MEME exploded, everyone traded MEME across chains.

Now RWA is the focus, and the market needs RWA cross-chain.

┈➤ Trading RWA on-chain

Currently, RWA mainly consists of stablecoins and stock-related tokens. Trading RWA tokens on some platforms has the downside of being limited to the liquidity and variety of RWAs available on that platform.

On the other hand, some platforms only allow trading during stock market hours, while others are hesitant to keep stock tokens on the platform for long periods.

In comparison, trading stock tokens on-chain in a self-custodial manner may be safer and more reassuring.

At present, ondo and xStocks support 24/7 trading of RWA tokens, but the variety of US stock tokens on these two platforms is limited.

For example:

ondo has not launched, but xStocks has launched MicroStrategy stock (MSTR), mining stock BTBT, etc.

Meanwhile, ondo has launched some ETF tokens that xStocks does not have, such as the 20+ year Treasury ETF token TLTon, inflation-protected bond ETF token TIPon, etc.

In the cross-chain bridge, you can trade RWA tokens across multiple chains, such as US Treasuries, US stocks...

In deBridge, you can even directly cross-chain exchange RWA tokens from one chain to another...

For instance, you can exchange TLTon on the Ethereum chain for MSTR on the Solana chain in just one step.

Moreover, RWA and funds are all in your own wallet, making the entire process and assets self-custodial, which is the most reassuring aspect.

┈➤ Another essential demand for the cross-chain bridge is the need for LPs

RWA and MEME have one major difference.

MEME may not be suitable for long-term holding, but traditional financial assets like tradefi, US Treasuries, and stock tokens are suitable for long-term holding.

Therefore, we can actually buy the RWA assets we believe in, add LP on-chain, and earn transaction fee revenue from traders in the DEX.

Even if RWA drops in the short term, there’s no need to worry too much; valuable assets will always rebound.

However, most existing trading platforms that support US stock tokens do not allow withdrawals.

At this time, the cross-chain bridge provides convenience for LP users once again. We can exchange our assets from other chains for assets on the chain where the RWA asset is located, and then add LP.

I declare that the cross-chain bridge is the fighter in essential needs!

The price of USDT has started to decline again, as shown in the picture.

The OTC selling price for USDT is currently around 6.92~6.94, and there are also no signs of capital entering the market.

It is estimated that 69 will not hold in the short term, unless there is sudden good news regarding the Iran situation.

Zhang Xuefeng is a businessman, not a great philanthropist. He has done charitable acts, but his ultimate goal is to make money.

Zhang Xuefeng is a businessman, not a bad person; his secondary goal is to help others. He has made a lot of money, but he has also provided value to many people. This is one of the fundamental logics of commercial exchange.

Although he may have some behaviors that seem to seek attention and make erroneous judgments, he ultimately provides useful information and assistance to the internet and many families.

Objectively speaking, Zhang Xuefeng is a pioneer in a new field who has spoken many truths but cannot escape conventions.

Agree? Like it! Disagree? Share your views in the comments!

When making money, no one shares; when losing money, no one listens.

Every day, I report good news and not worries to my parents, pretending to be cheerful in front of my family.

Only those who make money study health and wellness, but for the majority of people, isn't sudden death a kind of blessing?!

All fairness or unfairness is just fleeting smoke.

All the responsibilities and debts that must be borne end at the moment of sudden death.

But that is not a voluntary choice; it is a kind of passive liberation, with no psychological burden left, how refreshing it is?!

The trading points airdrop is equivalent to buying a pre-sale house.

We pay the money first, and the developer (project party) receives the money, but how this money will be used, we do not know.

When will the house be delivered?
What will the house look like at the time of delivery?
Will my own house be delivered?
Will the house be unfinished?

None of this can be determined!

State a viewpoint, the bearish factors for BTC have basically been fully released.

The consensus of the four-year cycle and the historical 'experience' of continuous collapses triggered by liquidity in 2022:

This led to the expectation that the bearish release would be completed in a short period (from April 2025 to February 2026).

BTC fell directly to near its previous high and then oscillated around that level.

Next, whether the bottom for BTC is 60,000, 50,000, or 40,000... mainly depends on the macro environment and the U.S. stock market.

Trading cryptocurrencies is like "Dream of the Red Chamber," everyone's ending is a tragedy. A thousand reds cry, ten thousand beauties share the sorrow.

Trading cryptocurrencies is like "Journey to the West," along the way there are countless difficulties; you think they are all monsters, but most of the monsters have a backstory.

Trading cryptocurrencies is like "Water Margin," the bandits are either exterminated or recruited; we can only support them, otherwise we worry about being poisoned.

Trading cryptocurrencies is like "Romance of the Three Kingdoms," what is united must divide, what is divided must unite; fighting back and forth, in the end, it is unified by a fourth party.

Trading cryptocurrencies is like Maupassant's "The Necklace," working hard for most of one's life, only to find that what you struggled for is worthless.

Trading cryptocurrencies is like "The Old Man and the Sea," fighting desperately, ultimately gaining nothing, barely surviving, and then still feeling grand and self-satisfied.

……Feel free to add more.

Most people in Web3 are particularly resistant to working.

The phrase "Coming to the crypto world is to avoid working" sounds quite reasonable.

However, having a relatively stable cash flow changes the mindset during trading.

Some KOLs/bloggers believe that the cost-benefit ratio of working is not as good as taking on advertisement deals. However, some jobs can actually teach you a lot of useful things within a team.

The eternal thought of Bee Brother is to continuously improve his ability to earn money, not just to increase his own wealth.

Especially in Web3 remote work, the work vibe is actually quite light. The costs are relatively low, saving time from commuting, and one can choose a comfortable working state; you can also build your own network.

Do you agree?

Why is it said that the dot plot cannot 100% represent interest rate forecasts?
A visual understanding of the structure of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision-makers

First, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is not determined solely by the Chair.

Second, decisions on whether to cut, raise, or maintain interest rates, as well as whether to reduce, expand, or maintain the balance sheet, and core monetary policy operations, are often made by vote.

Third, the economic forecast summary of the Federal Reserve each quarter, including the interest rate forecast dot plot, involves all 19 seats of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee).

Fourth, not all FOMC members participate in the core monetary policy votes, but only 12 of the seats.

Fifth, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve consists of 7 seats, plus the President of the New York Fed, these 8 seats have permanent voting rights on core monetary policy.

The other 4 voting seats are rotated annually among the Presidents of the other 11 Federal Reserve Banks.

Therefore, the dot plot cannot 100% represent the Federal Reserve's interest rate forecasts.

In March, there were 7 people predicting no rate cut, which presents a potential extreme case where all 7 individuals predicting no rate cut might be officials without voting rights in 2026.

Of course, the probability of such a scenario is essentially zero. This is mentioned merely as an example to illustrate that the dot plot cannot 100% represent the Federal Reserve's interest rate forecasts.

Brother Bee's view is: The statements of Federal Reserve officials and the dot plot itself will influence market expectations. When the Federal Reserve lacks a clear direction, officials will generally reflect a balanced uncertainty. Hence, among the 12 voting members this year, there is an average distribution of 4 doves, 4 hawks, and 4 neutrals. The March dot plot shows predictions of 0 cuts and 1 cut in 2026 being represented by 7 individuals, possibly for the same reason.

Additionally, the 12 actual voters and the 19 participants in the dot plot predictions are not entirely the same, which may lead to discrepancies between the information conveyed by the dot plot and the actual interest rate policy.

Especially after Waller took office, there could be greater uncertainties. Q3 might be in a transitional phase, and these officials are expected to study and discuss in conjunction with economic data.

However, there is still a chance of a rate cut in Q4, as the employment issues in the U.S. may now be more severe than inflation issues, especially with sustained high rates into Q4.

Brother Ma Ji has a total loss of 30 million dollars, why does it feel like he is helping someone launder money?

Finally, someone has a consistent viewpoint! I cannot understand why everyone thinks SBF can save the cryptocurrency market?!

A person who misappropriates user funds, a person who plays with extreme leverage!

Integrity and talent, which one of these is reliable?

If he had even one of these reliable qualities, he wouldn't be in this situation today!

Well, in the crypto world, let's not talk about integrity, just talent.

In the financial field, truly talented individuals are never the ones who take the most risks, but rather those who are both brave and wise, balancing risk and reward. Yes, he is strategic; as SEA said, he is risking not his own money but user funds. But isn't the cost of the risk he bears his own freedom now?! Can you say that such a person has the ability to save the cryptocurrency market?

As for investment insight, has everyone forgotten? After FTX's bankruptcy, many institutions in the U.S. returned the so-called "political donations." We all know there are still certain funds that cannot be returned, and these funds determine SBF's resources and connections. So SBF's so-called investment insight may not be due to investment insight. CEX or VC founded by Chinese people have a hard time integrating into the U.S. elite circles, so it seems that their investment insight is not as good as SBF's; in fact, the difference between the two is not about investment, it’s about being born into the right circumstances!

Federal Reserve's March Dot Plot Forecast: No Rate Cut or One Rate Cut in 2026

Predictions for rate cuts in 2026 by 19 officials:
7 predict no rate cuts,
7 predict one rate cut,
2 predict 2 to 3 rate cuts,
and 1 predicts 4 rate cuts, essentially aligning with Powell's supporter Milan.

For the 2027-28 forecast, the median prediction, which is also the majority, indicates only 2 rate cuts compared to now.

CME's interest rate futures show that the market previously expected one rate cut in 2026; this dot plot is undoubtedly bearish. However, the Iran conflict last night directly brought prices down, possibly partially offsetting the bearishness of the dot plot.

But this dot plot is not 100% representative of interest rate decisions; I will write more tomorrow.

Why is everyone discussing that there won't be a rate cut tonight?! The key point tonight is the dot plot.

The probability of not cutting interest rates tonight is close to 100%. Oil prices are rising, and Trump plans to postpone his visit to China, which means the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is not very optimistic. The CME's interest rate futures show that the market expects only one rate cut in 2026. It is estimated that there won't be a rate cut next month either.

So the key point tonight is the dot plot, which is the last dot plot chaired by Powell.

Tonight's dot plot can reflect the attitudes of Federal Reserve officials towards future interest rates.

Note that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is not made by the Chairman alone! It is made by a vote of 12 Federal Reserve officials.

During the interest rate decision, at least 7 votes must be in favor to cut rates.

This means that even if Waller takes office in the second half of the year and advocates for a rate cut, he will still need to gain support from a certain proportion of Federal Reserve officials.

Waller's assumption of office does not guarantee that he will gain significant authority and support within a month or two.

Tonight's dot plot can reflect the difficulty and frequency of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year.

The hedging property of BTC cannot be doubted!

Google Trends data on searches related to hedging keywords show that BTC is highly correlated with gold in terms of hedging interest.