🚨READ THIS TILL THE END $BTC down -5% USD/JPY has just crossed a Danger Level.Today, USDJPY pumped above 160 for the first time since July 2024.
This does look like a nothing burger until you remember what happened last time. In July 2024, USDJPY crossed 160. Bank of Japan intervened by selling dollars and buying Yen. This made Yen stronger and caused Yen Carry Trade unwind.
For those who don't know, Japan has been a cheap source of funding for global investors due to low yield. This started to change in 2024 when BOJ did first rate hike. When a rate hike happens, Yen usually gets stronger which causes investors to pay more on their debt. And that's exactly what happened in July 2024 when yen strengthened after BOJ intervention. In 3-4 weeks, #usdjpy dropped almost 13%, which forced investors to sell their assets. During this timeframe, Bitcoin crashed almost 30% while S&P 500 dumped 10%.
Now if BOJ intervenes again, a similar story could repeat. And this time I think #BTC and the stock market will fall again, history repeats itself. Pray for Crypto.
when the price of $OIL rises, then $XAUT will be under pressure, Gold rises because Unmick predicts that inflation will be higher, DXY also experiences an increase, from here we conclude that $XAUT there is no reason to rise. So in the near future, my prediction is below $4000 and $BTC below $60k
The US bond market is in big trouble today. In this condition, America can't move freely; at this point, the room for maneuver is becoming more limited and encouraging a more cautious response.
Trump can make any policy he wants. BOND MARKET IS THE REAL BOSS. But if bond vigilantes start selling, he will turn around. Yield 4.3%-4.5% is not just a technical number. It is the US fiscal tolerance limit.
US Debt = $39 trillion.
For every yield increase of 1%, an additional $390 billion/year in interest. The US has to refinance $9-10T of debt every year. Every 10bps higher = +$9B permanent cost forever.
Tonight I'll be live streaming to keep my brothers company until the New Year For those brothers who have nothing to do, can't sleep, or are bored, let's chat, Just chatting, okay? Other than this market, let's wait for a trading opportunity.