硅谷居士搬运号
清华本科，美国计算机博士，硅谷软件工程师兼经理。兴趣包括开发软件、投资理财、健身、写作。
X平台上唯一的“硅谷居士”号。
小红书号、脸书号、文学城号：硅谷居士。
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Is the situation of the U.S. military's deployment in Iran already irreversible?
Many may have heard that amphibious landings have always been extremely complex and challenging tactical deployments at any time, and a slight misstep can easily lead to heavy casualties. However, the steps of the U.S. armed forces onto Iranian territory seem to be getting closer, and this trend has attracted widespread attention.
Recently, as U.S. troops continue to deploy and gather forces in the Gulf region, the likelihood of ground forces launching landing operations against Iran has significantly increased. According to relevant prediction market data on the Polymarket platform, the external perception is that the probability of U.S. forces officially launching landing operations before the end of April has now exceeded 70%.
https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by
Many may have heard that amphibious landings have always been extremely complex and challenging tactical deployments at any time, and a slight misstep can easily lead to heavy casualties. However, the steps of the U.S. armed forces onto Iranian territory seem to be getting closer, and this trend has attracted widespread attention.
Recently, as U.S. troops continue to deploy and gather forces in the Gulf region, the likelihood of ground forces launching landing operations against Iran has significantly increased. According to relevant prediction market data on the Polymarket platform, the external perception is that the probability of U.S. forces officially launching landing operations before the end of April has now exceeded 70%.
https://polymarket.com/event/us-forces-enter-iran-by
The Iran war has caused severe turbulence in the stock markets of Japan and South Korea
Affected by the recent outbreak of the Iran war, some global financial markets have experienced significant fluctuations, particularly the stock markets of Japan and South Korea, which have been hit especially hard. Since the conflict officially began, the decline of various major stock indices has shown considerable differences. Specifically, the performance of the South Korean stock index KOSP has been the most sluggish, currently recording a drop of 17%. Following closely is the Japanese market, where the Nikkei index has also seen an overall decline of 13%. In contrast to the sharp reactions of these two Asian markets, the performance of the U.S. market has been relatively stable, with the S&P 500 index only maintaining a decline of about 7% during the same period.
Affected by the recent outbreak of the Iran war, some global financial markets have experienced significant fluctuations, particularly the stock markets of Japan and South Korea, which have been hit especially hard. Since the conflict officially began, the decline of various major stock indices has shown considerable differences. Specifically, the performance of the South Korean stock index KOSP has been the most sluggish, currently recording a drop of 17%. Following closely is the Japanese market, where the Nikkei index has also seen an overall decline of 13%. In contrast to the sharp reactions of these two Asian markets, the performance of the U.S. market has been relatively stable, with the S&P 500 index only maintaining a decline of about 7% during the same period.
How does war affect the U.S. stock market?
Undoubtedly, modern America is the most warlike country on this planet. Since World War II, the United States has participated in many large-scale foreign wars.
Of course, the people who bear the most cost of war are those soldiers fighting in foreign lands.
As the saying goes: 'Pity the bones by the uncertain river, still a person in the spring boudoir dream!'
When faced with the unpredictable nature of war, many investors often worry excessively about the direction of the capital market; some even panic-sell their stock assets.
So, what has been the true performance of the U.S. stock market during foreign wars?
Next, let's take a brief look at several major wars and examine the performance of the U.S. stock market during those periods.
1. World War II (U.S. involvement period: December 1941 – August 1945)
Although the Pearl Harbor attack initially triggered market panic, as the U.S. shifted to a wartime economic model, large military orders greatly stimulated industrial output. In the later stages of the war, as the Allied victory became assured, the stock market performed particularly well.
During the more than three years of U.S. involvement in the war, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index reached about 100%, with an average annualized return of 21%.
2. Korean War (June 1950 – July 1953)
In the first two weeks after the outbreak of war, the S&P 500 index once plummeted more than 10%. However, as the U.S. economy was in a post-World War II boom and government spending surged, the market quickly recovered.
Over the entire three-year war period, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index was about 51%, with an average annualized return of 14%.
3. Vietnam War (August 1964 – January 1973)
This was a protracted war lasting more than eight years, spanning different economic cycles. In the early stages, the stock market performed well due to the effects of the 'Great Society' programs and military spending, but in the later stages, inflation and the 1973 oil crisis eroded the gains.
Over the entire war period, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index was about 64%, with an average annualized return of 6%.
4. Gulf War (August 1990 – February 1991)
This is one of the most impressive cases of swift resolution in modern warfare. Although the outbreak of war led to soaring oil prices and a sharp decline in the stock market, as the coalition's 'Operation Desert Storm' rapidly progressed in early 1991, uncertainty dissipated, and the market rebounded sharply in a very short time.
In just half a year, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index was about 11%, with an average annualized return of 23%.
5. War in Afghanistan (October 2001 – August 2021)
Due to the protracted nature of this war, lasting nearly 20 years, the stock market's performance was more affected by major economic events such as the bursting of the internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis.
During this long period of war, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index was about 445%, with an average annualized return of 9%.
6. Iraq War (March 2003 – December 2011)
This war broke out during a period of stock market downturn following '9/11'. In the early stages of the conflict, the stock market performed strongly. However, by the later stages of the war, the stock market experienced severe declines due to the 2008 financial crisis.
By the end of the war, the U.S. stock market had entered a recovery bull market following the financial crisis.
During the more than eight years of war, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index was about 67%, with an average annualized return of about 6%.
From the above analysis, we can see that in the vast majority of cases, the U.S. stock market's reaction to war follows a simple pattern: a decline due to uncertainty before the war, and a rebound during the war due to realization of expectations and increased government spending. Factors such as energy prices, inflation rates, monetary policy, and other significant economic events often have a more profound impact on the stock market than the outcomes on the battlefield.
Regardless, historical data undeniably shows that although the early stages of foreign wars often bring volatility to the U.S. stock market, in the long term, the U.S. stock market has actually recorded good positive growth during major wars. Of course, the average annualized returns during wartime vary greatly, ranging from a low of 6% to a high of 23%.
As investors, understanding this historical data can help us remain calmer in the face of market fluctuations.
If you want to learn more about my investment and financial management experiences and insights, please visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book '财富捷径' or the English version 'The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence.'
Undoubtedly, modern America is the most warlike country on this planet. Since World War II, the United States has participated in many large-scale foreign wars.
Of course, the people who bear the most cost of war are those soldiers fighting in foreign lands.
As the saying goes: 'Pity the bones by the uncertain river, still a person in the spring boudoir dream!'
When faced with the unpredictable nature of war, many investors often worry excessively about the direction of the capital market; some even panic-sell their stock assets.
So, what has been the true performance of the U.S. stock market during foreign wars?
Next, let's take a brief look at several major wars and examine the performance of the U.S. stock market during those periods.
1. World War II (U.S. involvement period: December 1941 – August 1945)
Although the Pearl Harbor attack initially triggered market panic, as the U.S. shifted to a wartime economic model, large military orders greatly stimulated industrial output. In the later stages of the war, as the Allied victory became assured, the stock market performed particularly well.
During the more than three years of U.S. involvement in the war, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index reached about 100%, with an average annualized return of 21%.
2. Korean War (June 1950 – July 1953)
In the first two weeks after the outbreak of war, the S&P 500 index once plummeted more than 10%. However, as the U.S. economy was in a post-World War II boom and government spending surged, the market quickly recovered.
Over the entire three-year war period, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index was about 51%, with an average annualized return of 14%.
3. Vietnam War (August 1964 – January 1973)
This was a protracted war lasting more than eight years, spanning different economic cycles. In the early stages, the stock market performed well due to the effects of the 'Great Society' programs and military spending, but in the later stages, inflation and the 1973 oil crisis eroded the gains.
Over the entire war period, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index was about 64%, with an average annualized return of 6%.
4. Gulf War (August 1990 – February 1991)
This is one of the most impressive cases of swift resolution in modern warfare. Although the outbreak of war led to soaring oil prices and a sharp decline in the stock market, as the coalition's 'Operation Desert Storm' rapidly progressed in early 1991, uncertainty dissipated, and the market rebounded sharply in a very short time.
In just half a year, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index was about 11%, with an average annualized return of 23%.
5. War in Afghanistan (October 2001 – August 2021)
Due to the protracted nature of this war, lasting nearly 20 years, the stock market's performance was more affected by major economic events such as the bursting of the internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis.
During this long period of war, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index was about 445%, with an average annualized return of 9%.
6. Iraq War (March 2003 – December 2011)
This war broke out during a period of stock market downturn following '9/11'. In the early stages of the conflict, the stock market performed strongly. However, by the later stages of the war, the stock market experienced severe declines due to the 2008 financial crisis.
By the end of the war, the U.S. stock market had entered a recovery bull market following the financial crisis.
During the more than eight years of war, the cumulative return of the S&P 500 index was about 67%, with an average annualized return of about 6%.
From the above analysis, we can see that in the vast majority of cases, the U.S. stock market's reaction to war follows a simple pattern: a decline due to uncertainty before the war, and a rebound during the war due to realization of expectations and increased government spending. Factors such as energy prices, inflation rates, monetary policy, and other significant economic events often have a more profound impact on the stock market than the outcomes on the battlefield.
Regardless, historical data undeniably shows that although the early stages of foreign wars often bring volatility to the U.S. stock market, in the long term, the U.S. stock market has actually recorded good positive growth during major wars. Of course, the average annualized returns during wartime vary greatly, ranging from a low of 6% to a high of 23%.
As investors, understanding this historical data can help us remain calmer in the face of market fluctuations.
If you want to learn more about my investment and financial management experiences and insights, please visit Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book '财富捷径' or the English version 'The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence.'
The dawn of the end of the Iran war is approaching, and the curtain for peace is gradually being drawn. Currently, the highly anticipated ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran have officially started, with Pakistan playing an important role as a mediator in these discussions.
At a critical juncture in the development of the situation, the Gulf Arab states have demonstrated a very firm stance, clearly warning that they are prepared to join a united military action against Iran. This statement undoubtedly constitutes a significant external pressure, but it also injects strong motivation into the Iranian government to advance the peace talks, prompting them to more actively seek to reach an agreement that is acceptable to both parties as soon as possible.
At a critical juncture in the development of the situation, the Gulf Arab states have demonstrated a very firm stance, clearly warning that they are prepared to join a united military action against Iran. This statement undoubtedly constitutes a significant external pressure, but it also injects strong motivation into the Iranian government to advance the peace talks, prompting them to more actively seek to reach an agreement that is acceptable to both parties as soon as possible.
Reflecting on the unfortunate passing of the well-known education blogger Zhang Xuefeng and sports safety
On March 24, 2026, a heartbreaking accident occurred. The well-known education blogger Zhang Xuefeng, who had attracted much public attention, suffered a sudden heart attack while exercising on a treadmill. Despite the medical staff's best efforts, they were unable to save his life, and his life trajectory ultimately ended at just 41 years old.
It is reported that this blogger seemed to have a passion for marathon running during his lifetime. This tragedy, while deeply regrettable, also serves as a wake-up call for safety in our daily sports and fitness activities. To protect our bodies, it is essential to implement comprehensive and sufficient warm-up preparation before engaging in any exercise activities. The entire exercise process should adhere to the principle of moderation, strictly follow the scientific rules of gradual progression, and always consider one's actual physical condition to act within one's means.
Additionally, it should be especially clear that both half marathons and full marathons essentially belong to extreme sports that challenge the limits of the body. Based on a comprehensive consideration of health and life safety, it is not recommended for ordinary people to easily engage in or participate in such activities.
On March 24, 2026, a heartbreaking accident occurred. The well-known education blogger Zhang Xuefeng, who had attracted much public attention, suffered a sudden heart attack while exercising on a treadmill. Despite the medical staff's best efforts, they were unable to save his life, and his life trajectory ultimately ended at just 41 years old.
It is reported that this blogger seemed to have a passion for marathon running during his lifetime. This tragedy, while deeply regrettable, also serves as a wake-up call for safety in our daily sports and fitness activities. To protect our bodies, it is essential to implement comprehensive and sufficient warm-up preparation before engaging in any exercise activities. The entire exercise process should adhere to the principle of moderation, strictly follow the scientific rules of gradual progression, and always consider one's actual physical condition to act within one's means.
Additionally, it should be especially clear that both half marathons and full marathons essentially belong to extreme sports that challenge the limits of the body. Based on a comprehensive consideration of health and life safety, it is not recommended for ordinary people to easily engage in or participate in such activities.
Have people ever wondered about the specific savings gap between the citizens of China and the United States?
The report from Yicai provides us with a set of very intuitive reference data. Currently, the average savings per household in China is about 110,000 yuan, which is equivalent to 115% of the per capita GDP. If we further observe the distribution situation in specific domestic regions, we can find that residents in Beijing have an average savings of 356,000 yuan, while this figure in Shanghai is 290,000 yuan, and other relatively affluent regions in the country also have average savings exceeding 150,000 yuan.
For related news and information, please refer to: https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260324A06KA200?adChannelId=finance
In contrast, the average savings in the United States is about 25,000 dollars. A significant difference from the situation in China is that this savings amount is only equivalent to 28% of the per capita GDP in the United States.
The report from Yicai provides us with a set of very intuitive reference data. Currently, the average savings per household in China is about 110,000 yuan, which is equivalent to 115% of the per capita GDP. If we further observe the distribution situation in specific domestic regions, we can find that residents in Beijing have an average savings of 356,000 yuan, while this figure in Shanghai is 290,000 yuan, and other relatively affluent regions in the country also have average savings exceeding 150,000 yuan.
For related news and information, please refer to: https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260324A06KA200?adChannelId=finance
In contrast, the average savings in the United States is about 25,000 dollars. A significant difference from the situation in China is that this savings amount is only equivalent to 28% of the per capita GDP in the United States.
Which countries are the happiest?
In March 2026, the annual "Global Happiness Index Report" was released.
The report was completed by several authoritative institutions, including Oxford University, Gallup, the United Nations, and others. At the same time, top economists, psychologists, and statisticians in the world were responsible for the scientific analysis of data and the writing of chapters.
Below, I will list the top ten countries along with the rankings of a few other major countries. I will also list the per capita GDP of these countries for your reference.
Ranking Country Per Capita GDP
1 Finland $59,750
2 Iceland $108,590
3 Denmark $82,700
4 Costa Rica $20,130
5 Sweden $66,120
6 Norway $96,580
7 Netherlands $77,880
8 Israel $64,270
9 Luxembourg $154,110
10 Switzerland $118,170
17 Germany $63,600
21 France $51,700
23 United States $92,900
25 Canada $58,200
29 United Kingdom $60,010
38 Italy $45,890
45 Vietnam $4,960
52 South Korea $37,520
61 Japan $36,390
65 China $14,730
72 Russia $17,290
116 India $3,050
Although wealth does not completely equate to happiness, we can see that most of the countries at the top of the rankings are extremely wealthy countries.
In fact, according to surveys by many authoritative research institutions, the more wealth one has, the higher the sense of happiness. Moreover, this correlation has no upper limit.
I remember hearing an old saying: What's the use of money? Money can't buy happiness!
In fact, the reverse is also true: What's the use of happiness? Happiness can't be exchanged for money!
If you want to learn more about my investment and financial management experiences and insights, please go to the Amazon website or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book "Wealth Shortcut" or the English version "The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence."
In March 2026, the annual "Global Happiness Index Report" was released.
The report was completed by several authoritative institutions, including Oxford University, Gallup, the United Nations, and others. At the same time, top economists, psychologists, and statisticians in the world were responsible for the scientific analysis of data and the writing of chapters.
Below, I will list the top ten countries along with the rankings of a few other major countries. I will also list the per capita GDP of these countries for your reference.
Ranking Country Per Capita GDP
1 Finland $59,750
2 Iceland $108,590
3 Denmark $82,700
4 Costa Rica $20,130
5 Sweden $66,120
6 Norway $96,580
7 Netherlands $77,880
8 Israel $64,270
9 Luxembourg $154,110
10 Switzerland $118,170
17 Germany $63,600
21 France $51,700
23 United States $92,900
25 Canada $58,200
29 United Kingdom $60,010
38 Italy $45,890
45 Vietnam $4,960
52 South Korea $37,520
61 Japan $36,390
65 China $14,730
72 Russia $17,290
116 India $3,050
Although wealth does not completely equate to happiness, we can see that most of the countries at the top of the rankings are extremely wealthy countries.
In fact, according to surveys by many authoritative research institutions, the more wealth one has, the higher the sense of happiness. Moreover, this correlation has no upper limit.
I remember hearing an old saying: What's the use of money? Money can't buy happiness!
In fact, the reverse is also true: What's the use of happiness? Happiness can't be exchanged for money!
If you want to learn more about my investment and financial management experiences and insights, please go to the Amazon website or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book "Wealth Shortcut" or the English version "The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence."
Which countries are the happiest?
In March 2026, the annual 'World Happiness Index Report' was released.
This report was completed by several authoritative institutions, including Oxford University, Gallup, and the United Nations. At the same time, top experts in economics, psychology, and statistics were responsible for the scientific analysis of the data and chapter writing.
Below, I will list the top ten countries as well as the rankings of another dozen major countries. I will also provide the per capita GDP of these countries for your reference.
Ranking Country Per Capita GDP
1 Finland $59,750
2 Iceland $108,590
3 Denmark $82,700
4 Costa Rica $20,130
5 Sweden $66,120
6 Norway $96,580
7 Netherlands $77,880
8 Israel $64,270
9 Luxembourg $154,110
10 Switzerland $118,170
17 Germany $63,600
21 France $51,700
23 United States $92,900
25 Canada $58,200
29 United Kingdom $60,010
38 Italy $45,890
45 Vietnam $4,960
52 South Korea $37,520
61 Japan $36,390
65 China $14,730
72 Russia $17,290
116 India $3,050
Although wealth does not completely equate to happiness, we can see that the countries ranked highly are mostly extremely wealthy nations.
In fact, according to many authoritative research institutions, the more wealth a person has, the higher their sense of happiness. Moreover, this correlation has no upper limit.
I remember hearing a saying before: What use is money? Money cannot buy happiness!
In fact, the opposite is also true: What use is happiness? Happiness cannot be exchanged for money!
If you want to learn more about my investment and financial management experiences and insights, please go to Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book 'Wealth Shortcut' or the English version 'The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence.'
In March 2026, the annual 'World Happiness Index Report' was released.
This report was completed by several authoritative institutions, including Oxford University, Gallup, and the United Nations. At the same time, top experts in economics, psychology, and statistics were responsible for the scientific analysis of the data and chapter writing.
Below, I will list the top ten countries as well as the rankings of another dozen major countries. I will also provide the per capita GDP of these countries for your reference.
Ranking Country Per Capita GDP
1 Finland $59,750
2 Iceland $108,590
3 Denmark $82,700
4 Costa Rica $20,130
5 Sweden $66,120
6 Norway $96,580
7 Netherlands $77,880
8 Israel $64,270
9 Luxembourg $154,110
10 Switzerland $118,170
17 Germany $63,600
21 France $51,700
23 United States $92,900
25 Canada $58,200
29 United Kingdom $60,010
38 Italy $45,890
45 Vietnam $4,960
52 South Korea $37,520
61 Japan $36,390
65 China $14,730
72 Russia $17,290
116 India $3,050
Although wealth does not completely equate to happiness, we can see that the countries ranked highly are mostly extremely wealthy nations.
In fact, according to many authoritative research institutions, the more wealth a person has, the higher their sense of happiness. Moreover, this correlation has no upper limit.
I remember hearing a saying before: What use is money? Money cannot buy happiness!
In fact, the opposite is also true: What use is happiness? Happiness cannot be exchanged for money!
If you want to learn more about my investment and financial management experiences and insights, please go to Amazon or Google Play Books to purchase my Chinese financial book 'Wealth Shortcut' or the English version 'The Shortcut to Wealth: Your Simple Roadmap to Financial Independence.'
Micron releases astonishing financial report!
On March 18, 2026, chip giant Micron released an astonishing quarterly financial report.
Revenue reached $23.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 196%.
Net profit was $13.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 771%!
Net profit margin was 58%.
On March 18, 2026, chip giant Micron released an astonishing quarterly financial report.
Revenue reached $23.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 196%.
Net profit was $13.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 771%!
Net profit margin was 58%.
Imagine if you had invested just one dollar in the S&P 500 index in 1941. As time flows to 2026, this seemingly insignificant principal will achieve an astonishing leap of 12,745 times. Looking back over the past 85 years, the U.S. stock market has generated a total return of 1,274,500%, which means its average annual return has reached a considerable 11.7%.
Throughout these long years, the market has faced numerous trials, including the United States' direct involvement in several large-scale armed conflicts. These significant historical wars specifically include World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, as well as the Afghanistan War and the Iraq War.
From this historical perspective, when we turn our attention to the ongoing Iran War, it is evident that the overall scale of the current situation is completely incomparable to any of the major historical battles mentioned above.
Throughout these long years, the market has faced numerous trials, including the United States' direct involvement in several large-scale armed conflicts. These significant historical wars specifically include World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, as well as the Afghanistan War and the Iraq War.
From this historical perspective, when we turn our attention to the ongoing Iran War, it is evident that the overall scale of the current situation is completely incomparable to any of the major historical battles mentioned above.
New Release: "The Shortcut to Wealth 2026 Revised Edition" is now officially available
In the blink of an eye, this financial management masterpiece has been on the market for half a year. Thanks to everyone's support, this book has received a lot of praise since its release, with the current reader rating reaching 4.8 points.
In order to give back to your support and ensure the timeliness of the content, I have recently not only supplemented the latest relevant data throughout the book but also made extensive improvements and revisions to the original content.
Now, the latest version of the multilingual work is online, and you can obtain it through the address below according to your reading habits.
If you need the Simplified Chinese version of "The Shortcut to Wealth," please visit the following platforms:
Amazon: https://t.co/PnRkz5q91L
Google: https://t.co/KuThis41ge
The acquisition channels for the Traditional Chinese version of "財富捷徑" are as follows:
Amazon: https://t.co/5BZBJpXv8p
Google: https://t.co/EKnOli43Uz
In addition, the English version of "The Shortcut to Wealth" has also been updated simultaneously:
Amazon: https://t.co/E4WYKfDlI2
Google:
In the blink of an eye, this financial management masterpiece has been on the market for half a year. Thanks to everyone's support, this book has received a lot of praise since its release, with the current reader rating reaching 4.8 points.
In order to give back to your support and ensure the timeliness of the content, I have recently not only supplemented the latest relevant data throughout the book but also made extensive improvements and revisions to the original content.
Now, the latest version of the multilingual work is online, and you can obtain it through the address below according to your reading habits.
If you need the Simplified Chinese version of "The Shortcut to Wealth," please visit the following platforms:
Amazon: https://t.co/PnRkz5q91L
Google: https://t.co/KuThis41ge
The acquisition channels for the Traditional Chinese version of "財富捷徑" are as follows:
Amazon: https://t.co/5BZBJpXv8p
Google: https://t.co/EKnOli43Uz
In addition, the English version of "The Shortcut to Wealth" has also been updated simultaneously:
Amazon: https://t.co/E4WYKfDlI2
Google:
Has the Democratic Party's victory in the midterm elections become a foregone conclusion?
Although there are still more than seven months until the midterm elections officially arrive, the game surrounding control of Congress seems to have basically lost its suspense.
According to the latest monitoring data released by the Polymarket platform, the probability of the Democratic Party successfully regaining control of the House of Representatives has risen to 85%.
https://t.co/6SJaPSa6E0
Meanwhile, there are still some uncertainties regarding the Senate election situation. Even so, the probability of the Democratic Party winning the Senate has also reached 51%.
https://t.co/wCc7bwJTHc
In other words, the Republican Party's hope of simultaneously controlling both chambers of Congress is actually very slim, with only a 7.4% chance (=15% x 49%).
Although there are still more than seven months until the midterm elections officially arrive, the game surrounding control of Congress seems to have basically lost its suspense.
According to the latest monitoring data released by the Polymarket platform, the probability of the Democratic Party successfully regaining control of the House of Representatives has risen to 85%.
https://t.co/6SJaPSa6E0
Meanwhile, there are still some uncertainties regarding the Senate election situation. Even so, the probability of the Democratic Party winning the Senate has also reached 51%.
https://t.co/wCc7bwJTHc
In other words, the Republican Party's hope of simultaneously controlling both chambers of Congress is actually very slim, with only a 7.4% chance (=15% x 49%).
Will the Democratic Party secure victory in the midterm elections?
Although there are still more than 8 months until the midterm election day, the battle for control of Congress seems to have little suspense left.
According to the latest data indicators provided by the Polymarket platform, the probability of the Democratic Party regaining control of the House of Representatives has reached 85%.
https://t.co/6SJaPSa6E0
As for the competition situation in the Senate, it still appears unclear at the moment. However, even so, the probability of the Democratic Party successfully taking the Senate has reached 51%.
https://t.co/wCc7bwJTHc
Based on these two pieces of data, the chance of the Republican Party ultimately being able to control both houses of Congress has become extremely slim, standing at only 7.4% (i.e., 15% x 49%).
Although there are still more than 8 months until the midterm election day, the battle for control of Congress seems to have little suspense left.
According to the latest data indicators provided by the Polymarket platform, the probability of the Democratic Party regaining control of the House of Representatives has reached 85%.
https://t.co/6SJaPSa6E0
As for the competition situation in the Senate, it still appears unclear at the moment. However, even so, the probability of the Democratic Party successfully taking the Senate has reached 51%.
https://t.co/wCc7bwJTHc
Based on these two pieces of data, the chance of the Republican Party ultimately being able to control both houses of Congress has become extremely slim, standing at only 7.4% (i.e., 15% x 49%).
Will the Democratic Party secure a huge advantage in the upcoming midterm elections? Although there are still more than 8 months until the final vote, the direction of the battle for congressional seats has already become quite clear.
You can refer to the latest data released by the Polymarket platform, which indicates that the chances of the Democratic Party reclaiming the House of Representatives have reached 85%.
https://t.co/6SJaPSa6E0
Furthermore, predictions show that the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of the Senate has also reached 51%:
https://t.co/wCc7bwJTHc
Based on these indicators, the possibility of the Republican Party ultimately gaining full control of both chambers of Congress is only 7.4% (=15% x 49%).
You can refer to the latest data released by the Polymarket platform, which indicates that the chances of the Democratic Party reclaiming the House of Representatives have reached 85%.
https://t.co/6SJaPSa6E0
Furthermore, predictions show that the probability of the Democratic Party winning control of the Senate has also reached 51%:
https://t.co/wCc7bwJTHc
Based on these indicators, the possibility of the Republican Party ultimately gaining full control of both chambers of Congress is only 7.4% (=15% x 49%).
Regarding Google's artificial intelligence evaluation of the Iranian war poetry
Not long ago, I gave an interesting instruction to Google's artificial intelligence system Gemini, asking her to compose a traditional seven-character quatrain against the backdrop of the current complex situation in Iran.
The model quickly provided her answer. Here, I present the original text of this work, inviting all readers to appreciate it together. I wonder what everyone thinks after reading it; at this stage, what level is AI's literary creation skill truly at?
Title: Persian Situation
Ten thousand miles of yellow sand obscure the sunset,
The lonely figure in the holy city faces the heavy door.
Power does not necessarily determine victory or defeat,
Half is smoke from gunfire, half is the trace of wine.
Not long ago, I gave an interesting instruction to Google's artificial intelligence system Gemini, asking her to compose a traditional seven-character quatrain against the backdrop of the current complex situation in Iran.
The model quickly provided her answer. Here, I present the original text of this work, inviting all readers to appreciate it together. I wonder what everyone thinks after reading it; at this stage, what level is AI's literary creation skill truly at?
Title: Persian Situation
Ten thousand miles of yellow sand obscure the sunset,
The lonely figure in the holy city faces the heavy door.
Power does not necessarily determine victory or defeat,
Half is smoke from gunfire, half is the trace of wine.
A Taste of the Iran War-Themed Yuanqu Created by Google's Artificial Intelligence
Not long ago, I assigned a rather clever task to Google's Gemini. I asked it to create a Yuanqu specifically based on the theme of the Iran War, following the metrical pattern of the classic song "Selling Flowers."
After reading the text it generated, I was deeply impressed and had to admit: this AI's profound accomplishments in classical literature and poetry creation have indeed far surpassed my personal level.
Below is the complete poem created by the artificial intelligence:
【Double Tune·Selling Flowers】· Reflections on the Persian Situation
The border once again stirs with yellow sand and fog,
Cold light slants on the exposed military cloak.
Power like a tiger contends in a dragon's chart.
An old monk strikes the bell,
A broken stele mourns the ancient,
In the end, it all counts as the rise and fall of numbers.
Not long ago, I assigned a rather clever task to Google's Gemini. I asked it to create a Yuanqu specifically based on the theme of the Iran War, following the metrical pattern of the classic song "Selling Flowers."
After reading the text it generated, I was deeply impressed and had to admit: this AI's profound accomplishments in classical literature and poetry creation have indeed far surpassed my personal level.
Below is the complete poem created by the artificial intelligence:
【Double Tune·Selling Flowers】· Reflections on the Persian Situation
The border once again stirs with yellow sand and fog,
Cold light slants on the exposed military cloak.
Power like a tiger contends in a dragon's chart.
An old monk strikes the bell,
A broken stele mourns the ancient,
In the end, it all counts as the rise and fall of numbers.
Exploring the Fusion of Technology and Tradition: A Song Dynasty Poem on the Theme of the Iran War Created by Google's Artificial Intelligence
Today I want to share an interesting attempt to combine modern technology with traditional culture. Recently, I tasked Gemini, Google's artificial intelligence assistant, with a culturally rich assignment, requiring it to create a Song Dynasty poem based on the theme of the Iran War, following the metrical pattern of the classic poem "Langtaosha."
What surprised and delighted me was that the AI produced a work of high quality; the poem not only closely aligns with the themes of the era but also exudes a strong classical charm and picturesque poetic imagery.
Below is the original text of the poem generated by AI:
"Langtaosha · The Situation in Persia"
The Gobi rolls with fierce sands, sword shadows intertwine. The ancient castle of the holy city reflects the remnants of the sunset. A thousand miles of borderland clouds are uncertain, where is home?
The game is as chaotic as hemp, chess pieces spread across the horizon. Who revisits old accounts to calculate the prosperity? How many matters arise from the clash of great powers, all reduced to withered tea.
Today I want to share an interesting attempt to combine modern technology with traditional culture. Recently, I tasked Gemini, Google's artificial intelligence assistant, with a culturally rich assignment, requiring it to create a Song Dynasty poem based on the theme of the Iran War, following the metrical pattern of the classic poem "Langtaosha."
What surprised and delighted me was that the AI produced a work of high quality; the poem not only closely aligns with the themes of the era but also exudes a strong classical charm and picturesque poetic imagery.
Below is the original text of the poem generated by AI:
"Langtaosha · The Situation in Persia"
The Gobi rolls with fierce sands, sword shadows intertwine. The ancient castle of the holy city reflects the remnants of the sunset. A thousand miles of borderland clouds are uncertain, where is home?
The game is as chaotic as hemp, chess pieces spread across the horizon. Who revisits old accounts to calculate the prosperity? How many matters arise from the clash of great powers, all reduced to withered tea.
Appreciating the Tang poem on the theme of the Iran conflict created by Google's Gemini
Some time ago, I made a special creative request to Google's AI assistant Gemini, asking it to tailor a traditional seven-character regulated verse based on the current war environment and complex dilemmas in Iran. After reviewing the final generated work, I must admit that today's artificial intelligence has already achieved remarkable proficiency in mastering classical regulated poetry, and the overall literary quality of this poem is indeed impressive.
The following is the specific poem titled "Reflections on the Situation in Iran":
The ancient Persian kingdom is in chaos,
A journey of thousands of miles stirs the evening dust.
The cold light of the Gobi shakes the shadow of the sword,
In the holy city, dark fires bind the cause of sorrow.
Always inviting eagles to spy on strongholds,
Always calculating the old neighbors before the cup.
The great power game ultimately leads to exhaustion,
Who sympathizes with the suffering of the border citizens?
Some time ago, I made a special creative request to Google's AI assistant Gemini, asking it to tailor a traditional seven-character regulated verse based on the current war environment and complex dilemmas in Iran. After reviewing the final generated work, I must admit that today's artificial intelligence has already achieved remarkable proficiency in mastering classical regulated poetry, and the overall literary quality of this poem is indeed impressive.
The following is the specific poem titled "Reflections on the Situation in Iran":
The ancient Persian kingdom is in chaos,
A journey of thousands of miles stirs the evening dust.
The cold light of the Gobi shakes the shadow of the sword,
In the holy city, dark fires bind the cause of sorrow.
Always inviting eagles to spy on strongholds,
Always calculating the old neighbors before the cup.
The great power game ultimately leads to exhaustion,
Who sympathizes with the suffering of the border citizens?
This year, buying US stocks will definitely make a profit!
Recently, many readers have sent me private messages expressing their anxiety about market fluctuations.
Indeed, every midterm election year, US stocks seem to go through a 'midlife crisis,' with erratic market movements leaving many investors confused. Additionally, multiple ongoing wars in 2026 have exacerbated market volatility.
However, if you can look beyond the short-term noise and examine the historical long cycles of over 70 years, you will find that this kind of volatility is not only predictable but may also be a 'big gift package' from the market to rational investors.
1. The astonishing pattern of midterm election years
In the investment community, we often say, 'Risk is the uncertainty of the unknown.' For Wall Street and investors, the most disliked aspect is not bad news but 'uncertainty.'
Before the midterm election day, the market is often in a state of confusion: Will tax policies change? Will the regulatory environment tighten? Who has the final say in Congress? This sentiment is reflected in the market as severe fluctuations.
In fact, since 1950, the average maximum intraday drawdown in midterm election years has reached as high as 16% to 18%.
The logic behind this is very simple. This kind of volatility is essentially the market paying the price for 'uncertainty.' When funds cannot see a clear direction, they often choose to wait and even withdraw.
However, once we shift our focus to after the election day, the patterns presented by the data can only be described as 'astonishing.'
According to a review by Capital Group and several other investment banks, in the 19 midterm elections from 1950 to 2022, the S&P 500 index had an unbelievable win rate of 100% within one year after the election day! In non-midterm election years, the chance of the index gaining increased returns is 70%.
Additionally, in the year following the midterm election, the average increase of the S&P 500 index is about 18%, far exceeding the approximately 8% in non-midterm election years!
This means that over the past 70 years, regardless of whether you chose the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, as long as you bought the S&P 500 on election day and held it, you would earn a profit after one year, with an average return more than twice that of normal years.
2. Why is this pattern so robust?
You might be curious as to why there is such a reliable pattern.
As investors, we cannot just look at the data; we must understand the driving forces behind it. I believe there are a few main reasons.
-- Political gridlock is good for the market: When the White House and Congress are controlled by different parties (creating gridlock), it is difficult for the government to enact radical legislation that could severely change the business environment. For businesses, this kind of 'stability' is the best business environment.
-- The 'third-year effect' of the presidential cycle: The first year after the midterm election is usually the third year of the presidential term. In preparation for the upcoming general election, the current government often releases policy dividends or economic stimulus plans during this period, benefiting US stocks.
-- The elimination of uncertainty: Once the dust settles, regardless of the outcome, the market no longer needs to 'guess.' Funds re-enter the market to position themselves, and this certainty itself is the driving force for upward movements.
3. My financial advice
In the face of such historical patterns, how should we operate?
First, do not attempt to perfectly time the market. The so-called 'buy on election day' does not mean you need to fixate on the closing price of a specific trading day. Usually, the entire fourth quarter is a good time to position yourself.
Second, respect history, but do not be superstitious about it. In 2026, we may face a different macro environment, such as ongoing inflationary pressures or geopolitical risks. History does not simply repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
Finally, maintain patience for long-termism. Often, investment returns are not achieved through frequent trading, but by calmly sitting at the table based on common sense and data during market panic, adhering to our investment discipline, and continuing to invest in index funds.
I believe that as long as you continue to invest regularly and hold index funds for the long term, you will ultimately achieve excellent investment returns.
I personally still adhere to the habit of investing regularly every month and will not deliberately wait until the fourth quarter to increase my position.
Recently, many readers have sent me private messages expressing their anxiety about market fluctuations.
Indeed, every midterm election year, US stocks seem to go through a 'midlife crisis,' with erratic market movements leaving many investors confused. Additionally, multiple ongoing wars in 2026 have exacerbated market volatility.
However, if you can look beyond the short-term noise and examine the historical long cycles of over 70 years, you will find that this kind of volatility is not only predictable but may also be a 'big gift package' from the market to rational investors.
1. The astonishing pattern of midterm election years
In the investment community, we often say, 'Risk is the uncertainty of the unknown.' For Wall Street and investors, the most disliked aspect is not bad news but 'uncertainty.'
Before the midterm election day, the market is often in a state of confusion: Will tax policies change? Will the regulatory environment tighten? Who has the final say in Congress? This sentiment is reflected in the market as severe fluctuations.
In fact, since 1950, the average maximum intraday drawdown in midterm election years has reached as high as 16% to 18%.
The logic behind this is very simple. This kind of volatility is essentially the market paying the price for 'uncertainty.' When funds cannot see a clear direction, they often choose to wait and even withdraw.
However, once we shift our focus to after the election day, the patterns presented by the data can only be described as 'astonishing.'
According to a review by Capital Group and several other investment banks, in the 19 midterm elections from 1950 to 2022, the S&P 500 index had an unbelievable win rate of 100% within one year after the election day! In non-midterm election years, the chance of the index gaining increased returns is 70%.
Additionally, in the year following the midterm election, the average increase of the S&P 500 index is about 18%, far exceeding the approximately 8% in non-midterm election years!
This means that over the past 70 years, regardless of whether you chose the Republican Party or the Democratic Party, as long as you bought the S&P 500 on election day and held it, you would earn a profit after one year, with an average return more than twice that of normal years.
2. Why is this pattern so robust?
You might be curious as to why there is such a reliable pattern.
As investors, we cannot just look at the data; we must understand the driving forces behind it. I believe there are a few main reasons.
-- Political gridlock is good for the market: When the White House and Congress are controlled by different parties (creating gridlock), it is difficult for the government to enact radical legislation that could severely change the business environment. For businesses, this kind of 'stability' is the best business environment.
-- The 'third-year effect' of the presidential cycle: The first year after the midterm election is usually the third year of the presidential term. In preparation for the upcoming general election, the current government often releases policy dividends or economic stimulus plans during this period, benefiting US stocks.
-- The elimination of uncertainty: Once the dust settles, regardless of the outcome, the market no longer needs to 'guess.' Funds re-enter the market to position themselves, and this certainty itself is the driving force for upward movements.
3. My financial advice
In the face of such historical patterns, how should we operate?
First, do not attempt to perfectly time the market. The so-called 'buy on election day' does not mean you need to fixate on the closing price of a specific trading day. Usually, the entire fourth quarter is a good time to position yourself.
Second, respect history, but do not be superstitious about it. In 2026, we may face a different macro environment, such as ongoing inflationary pressures or geopolitical risks. History does not simply repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
Finally, maintain patience for long-termism. Often, investment returns are not achieved through frequent trading, but by calmly sitting at the table based on common sense and data during market panic, adhering to our investment discipline, and continuing to invest in index funds.
I believe that as long as you continue to invest regularly and hold index funds for the long term, you will ultimately achieve excellent investment returns.
I personally still adhere to the habit of investing regularly every month and will not deliberately wait until the fourth quarter to increase my position.
Mojtaba's future path where to go
On February 28, 2026, a full-scale war broke out in Iran. On the very first day of the flames of war, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei unfortunately lost his life in the airstrikes by the US-Israeli coalition. Just a few days later, on March 8, 2026, the Iranian expert meeting officially elected Ali Khamenei's second son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, who is also widely known to the public as 'Little Khamenei'.
Even carrying the heavy burden of national grievances and quickly rising to the peak of power, the new leader faces an exceptionally harsh reality.
Firstly, he is confronted with a crisis that shakes the foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Looking back at the revolution of 1979, its core demand was to overthrow the hereditary system of the Pahlavi dynasty. Now, the theocratic regime has once again regressed to a power transfer model of 'father to son', which is undoubtedly a huge irony of the initial intention of that revolution.
Secondly, in Iran's complex power structure, the real backbone is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Although outsiders generally believe that Little Khamenei has formed a close bond with the senior leadership of the Revolutionary Guards, this alliance is actually extremely fragile. What the Revolutionary Guards truly need is a symbolic figure who can maintain their vast military powers and economic interests, rather than a hard-handed 'new emperor'. In such a drastically different era, it can be said that it is a very difficult task for Little Khamenei to regain the absolute authority that his father once possessed.
Meanwhile, the intensifying social contradictions within Iran are the most urgent problems he faces. In the hearts of ordinary people, Mojtaba is almost synonymous with the dark side of the system that they despise the most, representing the secret police, opaque operations, and privileged classes. Coupled with the long-standing international sanctions and repeatedly failed economic policies, public patience has reached its limit.
In terms of external environment, the international pressure that Little Khamenei faces is also devastating. Both the United States and Israel have publicly stated that they explicitly refuse to recognize any newly appointed 'Supreme Leader'. It is foreseeable that these two countries will inevitably look for opportunities to carry out assassination attempts against him.
Based on the above situation, regarding the ultimate fate of Little Khamenei, we can perhaps deduce three possible outcomes.
The first scenario is that he successfully inherits his father's legacy. With his father's political legacy and the strong support of the Revolutionary Guards, he may establish himself as a new generation of dictator, continuing to engage in fierce confrontation with the United States and Israel, and striving to reshape the Persian Empire's dominant position in the region.
The second scenario is a path of major reforms. This means he must completely reverse the fundamental national policy of Iran's theocratic regime, choosing to shake hands and make peace with Israel and the surrounding Arab countries, striving to transform Iran into a giant energy exporter similar to Saudi Arabia. However, in my opinion, the probability of this outcome is extremely low.
The third scenario is a quiet exit from the historical stage. Even if the Iranian people ultimately fail to successfully overthrow the existing theocratic regime, allowing Little Khamenei to temporarily stabilize his power, the United States and Israel can completely launch attacks at any future moment, using the same means they used against his father to end him.
It is worth noting that according to the prediction data on the Polymarket platform, as of the end of 2026, the probability of Little Khamenei losing his position as the Supreme Leader of Iran is as high as 64%.
https://t.co/aKxRBAFei9
What unique insights do you have about Little Khamenei's ultimate fate? We look forward to hearing everyone's discussions and sharing!
On February 28, 2026, a full-scale war broke out in Iran. On the very first day of the flames of war, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei unfortunately lost his life in the airstrikes by the US-Israeli coalition. Just a few days later, on March 8, 2026, the Iranian expert meeting officially elected Ali Khamenei's second son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, who is also widely known to the public as 'Little Khamenei'.
Even carrying the heavy burden of national grievances and quickly rising to the peak of power, the new leader faces an exceptionally harsh reality.
Firstly, he is confronted with a crisis that shakes the foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Looking back at the revolution of 1979, its core demand was to overthrow the hereditary system of the Pahlavi dynasty. Now, the theocratic regime has once again regressed to a power transfer model of 'father to son', which is undoubtedly a huge irony of the initial intention of that revolution.
Secondly, in Iran's complex power structure, the real backbone is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Although outsiders generally believe that Little Khamenei has formed a close bond with the senior leadership of the Revolutionary Guards, this alliance is actually extremely fragile. What the Revolutionary Guards truly need is a symbolic figure who can maintain their vast military powers and economic interests, rather than a hard-handed 'new emperor'. In such a drastically different era, it can be said that it is a very difficult task for Little Khamenei to regain the absolute authority that his father once possessed.
Meanwhile, the intensifying social contradictions within Iran are the most urgent problems he faces. In the hearts of ordinary people, Mojtaba is almost synonymous with the dark side of the system that they despise the most, representing the secret police, opaque operations, and privileged classes. Coupled with the long-standing international sanctions and repeatedly failed economic policies, public patience has reached its limit.
In terms of external environment, the international pressure that Little Khamenei faces is also devastating. Both the United States and Israel have publicly stated that they explicitly refuse to recognize any newly appointed 'Supreme Leader'. It is foreseeable that these two countries will inevitably look for opportunities to carry out assassination attempts against him.
Based on the above situation, regarding the ultimate fate of Little Khamenei, we can perhaps deduce three possible outcomes.
The first scenario is that he successfully inherits his father's legacy. With his father's political legacy and the strong support of the Revolutionary Guards, he may establish himself as a new generation of dictator, continuing to engage in fierce confrontation with the United States and Israel, and striving to reshape the Persian Empire's dominant position in the region.
The second scenario is a path of major reforms. This means he must completely reverse the fundamental national policy of Iran's theocratic regime, choosing to shake hands and make peace with Israel and the surrounding Arab countries, striving to transform Iran into a giant energy exporter similar to Saudi Arabia. However, in my opinion, the probability of this outcome is extremely low.
The third scenario is a quiet exit from the historical stage. Even if the Iranian people ultimately fail to successfully overthrow the existing theocratic regime, allowing Little Khamenei to temporarily stabilize his power, the United States and Israel can completely launch attacks at any future moment, using the same means they used against his father to end him.
It is worth noting that according to the prediction data on the Polymarket platform, as of the end of 2026, the probability of Little Khamenei losing his position as the Supreme Leader of Iran is as high as 64%.
https://t.co/aKxRBAFei9
What unique insights do you have about Little Khamenei's ultimate fate? We look forward to hearing everyone's discussions and sharing!
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