美少女Alita

Trump's solid green candle instantly hit my short stop!\nIt seems that in the short term it is a combination of risk premium unwinding + short covering + sentiment repair.\n\nThe short-term recovery continues, which doesn't surprise me. But whether the mid-term can form a trend depends on whether the news in five days has any substantial realization.\n\nIf there are more fluctuations later, then today's rebound is essentially just a smokescreen in a high-volatility environment.\n\nIf the subsequent easing continues to be realized,\nthen high-elasticity assets like BTC will still be the first direction for capital to flow back in.\n\nSo let's not rush to see a reversal yet, after all, the time condition is not yet met.\n\nFor the medium to long term, we need to see if the market can turn sentiment into structure, and then turn structure into trend.\n\n————————————————\n\nTrump just printed a solid green candle and instantly hit my short stop.\n\nFor now, this looks like a mix of risk premium unwinding, short covering, and sentiment repair.\n\nI would not be surprised if the short-term rebound continues. But whether this can turn into a real mid-term trend still depends on whether there is any meaningful follow-through after the five-day window.\n\nIf the situation turns volatile again, then today’s rally is basically just another head fake in a high-volatility market.\n\nIf the de-escalation continues to be confirmed, then high-beta assets like BTC will likely be among the first places where capital flows back in.\n\nSo I would not rush to call this a reversal yet. The time condition is still not there.\n\nFor the medium to longer term, the key is whether the market can turn sentiment into structure, and then turn structure into trend.

Unstoppable momentum, history rhymes once again? Blue dashed box.
Unstoppable momentum, history rhymes once again. (Blue dashed box)

It’s about to drop to single digits soon. This is the second time since [1011] that I’ve seen it hovering around 10, and this time it really carries that chilling vibe from 2022…

The second 10% is now in place. Two hours ago, the Binance SAFU fund withdrew another 1,315 BTC approximately $100.42 million from its wallet address.

#BTC #CryptoNews

CZ has started making moves: the Binance SAFU fund address bought 1,315 BTC about half an hour ago, worth roughly $100 million, 10% of the $1 billion target completed.

BTC’s price has just rebounded slightly, but the trend still looks unclear. Whether it can find support at the previous key low around $74K will soon be revealed.

#BTC #CZ

The world is sinking, Ai is reveling 🤖 The agent meeting that shields humanity is in progress 👾👾👾

#btc #Aİ

Rush

GM Monday, the U.S. stock market will open after the weekend drop, waiting for a wave of liquidity to return ☕️. Will this week be a wide-range fluctuation or a continued decline?

The liquidation map shows that an upward rebound is likely to sweep through the liquidity above around 91k–94k within the week. However, before that, a buildup around 85.9k might arrive first—let's wait and see.

On the macro front, this week is not quiet. If I were the main force, I would take the opportunity to clear liquidity both up and down. This week still leans towards volatility. #BTC

A signature edition figurine surprise from
@Pickle Cat
@0xPickleCati
over the weekend 🥒🐱 Our secret code is __ ?

Online confession to Cat King and Card General 🫶🫶🫶

Can I trust you one more time? 🤣😆 🤣😆 How long will it last this time? Can I trust you one more time?
How long will it last this time? #btc

Will MicroStrategy be removed from the MSCI World Index? MSCI is expected to announce its final decision on January 15, 2026. Currently, in the Polymarket prediction with an accuracy of over 90%, the odds of removal have already reached 74%. Is the crypto Christmas rally delayed because the market is pricing in this news?

In recent days, MicroStrategy has been quietly selling shares ahead of the announcement to ensure its debt repayment capability and avoid liquidation risks. Perhaps once the news lands, the market will dare to choose a direction again?

🧑‍🎄MERRY CHRISTMAS! ❄️🫎
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Will MicroStrategy get kicked out of the MSCI World Index?

MSCI’s final call is expected Jan 15, 2026 and on Polymarket (90%+ accurate markets), the odds of removal are already at 74% and climbing.

Is this why the crypto Santa rally is MIA? Market pricing in the overhang?

Lately, MSTR’s been quietly selling shares via ATM to bolster liquidity and avoid any debt/liquidation risks ahead of the decision.

Maybe once this lands, the market finally picks a direction🚀 or 💥

🧑‍🎄 MERRY CHRISTMAS! ❄️🦌

#btc #MSTR #Crypto #MSCI

Happy Winter Solstice! 🎊 The Christmas season rally is coming soon, right? Waiting for BTC to complete a 4H pullback. 🥟🥢 Planning to continue dumping all the altcoin spot holdings I have on hand 💨

It’s time for the daily show again. Today, we’re getting a wave of data-driven pump. In a bit, we’ll continue drawing doors—BTC draws one door, and altcoins take the opportunity to drop down another step.

US November non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-over-year: 2.7%, expected 3.10%; Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13: 224,000 people, expected 225,000, previous value 236,000.

The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged, in line with expectations.

Found the correlation between institutional cost basis ETF and BTC price. In the past two years, since institutions entered, the tops and bottoms of BTC have been very regular. BTC price is almost always about 50% higher than the cost basis of the institutional ETF, which triggers profit-taking until the BTC price retraces to the ETF's cost basis, starting the next round of upward movement. The chart captures several key time nodes without exception (green line is the average price of the ETF): 21/Jan/2025, 08/April, 13/Aug, 06/Oct, 22/Nov. Until now, the average price of the ETF institution remains around 83.4k, as the Fed's RMP bond purchases gradually restore liquidity from depletion to a normal level above 3 trillion. Perhaps the bottom of BTC has already passed. In extreme cases, in June 2024, BTC price dipped no more than 10% below the average cost price of various ETF institutions before rebounding. Found a massive correlation between Institutional ETF Cost Basis and #BTC price action. Since institutions entered, the pattern for tops and bottoms has been consistent: 1️⃣ Top Signal: When BTC is 50% above ETF Cost Basis → Profit taking triggers correction. 2️⃣ Bottom Signal: Price retraces to the Cost Basis → Next rally begins. Validated across key dates: Jan 21, Apr 8, Aug 13, Oct 6, Nov 22. (Green line = ETF Avg). Current Outlook: • ETF Cost Basis: 83.4k • Fed RMP liquidity is returning to normal levels >3T. The stage bottom is likely behind us. Even in the extreme case of June '24, BTC only dipped 10% below cost before bouncing. #bitcoin #crypto #ETFs

Actually, if you observe the aggregated funding rates across all exchanges closely, as long as they maintain the current low positive rate (below 0.005%) or negative rate status, the price might still be able to steadily recover to around 100k, of course, under the condition that there are no unexpected macro events.

The interest rate cut on the 10th isn’t far off either, and I hope we can have a stable weekend with low volatility. Over the past six months, whenever the funding rate has approached 0.01%, the price has always pulled back. The more cautious the market is, the greater the opportunity for an increase.

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If you look closely at the aggregated funding rates across all exchanges, as long as they stay at the current low positive level (below 0.005%) or turn negative, the price might still be able to steadily climb back toward the 100k area — assuming there are no new macro surprises.

The rate cut on the 10th isn’t far off either, so hopefully we can have a calm weekend with low volatility. Over the past half year, whenever funding has approached 0.01%, the price has always pulled back. The more cautious the market is, the greater the upside potential.

The newly purchased Mac has been equipped with a strong heart 🫀, and it’s already analyzing MicroStrategy's four possible outcomes of demise.

So, what stage are we at right now?

Fell down, thought of @wolfyxbt's value adjustment tool
Still be a bit kinder to myself
In the real world, the money spent counts as having possessed it

Add a portable computer to check K-lines when going out
The money lost this month could buy countless Macs🫣🫣🫣

Every time I lose money in web3, I want to spend money in web2
When I earn, I tend to spend more cautiously in web2
What kind of psychology is this?

The retaliatory wave segment doge's cat is so cute

政府开门后的流动性释放没有等来，看看周四英伟达财报吧，预测是偏利好的，BTC已经越来越接轨美股了，看看这次流动性能否回来一些，短期已经超跌太多了。

但如果持续弱势反弹，ema 55关键位97k站不稳，就要出一部分现货避险了。

The liquidity release we were expecting after the government reopened still hasn’t come. Let’s look to Nvidia’s earnings this Thursday—consensus is leaning bullish. BTC is now moving more and more in lockstep with U.S. stocks, so hopefully this time some liquidity will actually flow back in. Short-term, we’ve already oversold way too much.

But if it remains a weak rebound and we can’t hold firmly above the key EMA-55 at 97k, I’ll have to sell off a portion of my spot holdings to reduce risk.