A股证券交易员搬运号

虽然中国在本月初期刚刚出台了相关的出口限制措施，但在刚刚过去的上个周末，中国依然向面临能源短缺困境的东南亚国家输送了柴油及其他类别的燃料。这番举动似乎向外界传递出了一个积极提供支持的信号。

Have the current negative factors been completely released? From the current situation, Iran may choose to silently bear the cost of the bombing this time. Trump has expressed a very clear stance: if Iran continues to refuse to return to the negotiating table, the United States plans to directly conclude this war after implementing a round of super-scale bombing operations.

Trump has expressed a clear stance on the current situation. He pointed out that if Iran refuses to come to the negotiating table, the United States will undoubtedly take extremely tough measures. At that time, the U.S. will completely put an end to this war after carrying out a large-scale bombing campaign.

高盛近期发布的一项研究结论可能会出乎不少人的意料，甚至让一部分人感到不快。该机构经过测算后指出，在遭遇石油供应中断的冲击时，美国经济受到的负面波及程度预计将是中国经济的两倍。高盛的研究团队表示，放眼全球其他经济体，中国在应对这种原油供应波动时，显然具备更强的防御能力并处于更加有利的位置。正是基于此次石油冲击的影响评估，高盛的经济学家对两国的经济前景给出了不同的修正幅度，其中美国实际GDP增长预期被下调了40个基点，而中国实际GDP增长预期仅仅被下调了20个基点。

根据高盛的最新评估报告，在应对石油供应波动方面，中国经济展现出的抵御能力明显优于美国。该机构明确表示，原油供应冲击给美国经济带来的负面拖累程度高达中国的两倍。高盛的经济分析团队指出，放眼全球各个国家，中国在面对此类能源冲击时似乎占据着更为有利的位置。受此轮石油市场震荡的影响，该团队已将美国实际国内生产总值增长的预测值削减了40个基点，相比之下，对中国实际GDP增速预期的下调幅度仅为20个基点。

世贸组织第14届部长级会议于3月26日至30日在喀麦隆雅温得顺利举办并圆满落幕。在此期间，各成员国代表经过高密度的交流与协商，不仅取得了多项实质性的进展，还一致同意将尽快对尚未定论的议题展开新一轮探讨。

中国方面对此次会议给予高度重视，由商务部部长王文涛亲自率领代表团赴会，中国常驻世贸组织代表团大使李詠箑也全程参与了相关活动。

本次大会在多个关键领域交出了亮眼的成绩单。首先，各方共同发布了《促进发展的投资便利化协定》的部长联合声明，这标志着全球首个多边投资协定在迈向实际落地层面取得了重大突破。其次，会议顺利敲定了《电子商务协定》的临时实施安排，这一举措将为全球数字贸易的包容性与可持续发展注入强大动力。此外，针对渔业补贴、小经济体发展，以及检验检疫与技术法规措施的特殊和差别待遇等核心议题，与会代表分别签署并达成了相关的部长决定。

值得一提的是，本次会议还将世贸组织改革工作计划、电子商务工作计划等多份已经高度接近共识的草案文件进行了系统整合，共同构成了备受瞩目的“雅温得成果包”。为了让这些潜在共识早日转化为确定的协议，各方约定将在日内瓦尽快启动相关的后续磋商工作。

（日月谭天）

特朗普过去24小时都忙了什么？

1. 若伊朗收取霍尔木兹海峡通行费，美国将“闪电出手”——被问及伊朗计划在霍尔木兹海峡收取通行费一事，特朗普表示：“美国可以非常迅速地终止这一行动。我们两分钟内就能完成这项工作。我们能迅速地完成，以至于你会感到头晕目眩。”
2. 声称伊朗答应了15项要求中的大部分——当地时间周日，特朗普对记者表示，伊朗已“满足”美方此前向德黑兰提出的15项停战要求中的“大部分”。他表示：“他们已满足我们大部分要点。我们将再提出几项其他要求。”
3. 直言最想获取伊朗石油——特朗普在周日接受英媒采访时表示，他希望“夺取伊朗的石油资源”，甚至可能占领哈尔克岛这一重要的出口枢纽。特朗普说：“我最想做的事就是从伊朗获取石油……或许我们会占领哈尔克岛，或许不会。我们有很多选择。”
4. 与伊朗的协议有望很快达成——据英国金融时报，特朗普强调，通过巴基斯坦“特使”与伊朗开展间接谈判，且进展顺利。他表示：“协议有望很快达成。”
5. 考虑武力获取伊朗铀料——据美国官员透露，特朗普正在考虑开展一项军事行动，旨在从伊朗获取约1000磅的铀料。特朗普尚未就此下达最终命令，但据知情人士称，他总体上对该方案持开放态度。
6. 驻中东美军人数已超5万人——据纽约时报报道，随着2500名海军陆战队队员和另外2500名海军士兵的抵达，使得美国在中东地区的驻军人数超过了5万人，比平时多了约1万人。
7. 遭民主党议员抨击：与伊朗谈判是谎言——据CBS报道，当地时间周日，美国众议院情报委员会的民主党主席吉姆·希姆斯指责特朗普上周在市场动荡和战争持续的情况下有关与伊朗谈判的言论是“彻头彻尾的谎言”。
8. 美国选民对特朗普“不满意率”创新高——美国福克斯新闻频道日前发布一项民调结果，近三分之二受访美国选民对特朗普的施政不满意，不满意率为他两个任期中最高。

SpaceX is preparing for an IPO, expected to set a record for the largest IPO in the world

经济脱钩的现实阻力与德国的地缘政治困境

在当前中美双边关系日益紧张的大环境下，德国政府在制定清晰的对外战略时正陷入明显的两难境地。根据德国明镜周刊的最新报道，由于国内大型企业与全球前两大经济体之间维系着极其深厚的联系，德国目前很难出台一项统一的对外贸易政策。这种由出口模式内部分化所引发的利益冲突，正是德国当下所面临的地缘政治核心困境。

萨塞克斯大学和伦敦国王学院的研究人员在周一发布了一份详尽的分析报告，充分印证了从经济角度来看，德国想要脱离中国和美国几乎是不可能的。该研究团队对 DAX 和 MDAX 指数成分股企业进行了全面考察，重点追踪了这些公司在销售、生产制造以及供应链环节中的对外依赖度。研究结果清晰地表明，德国对中美两国的依赖程度极高，任何形式的脱钩操作都将引发严重的经济损失。

针对不同领域的深入调查显示出各行业依赖重心的差异性。其中，汽车制造商与机械工程公司对中国市场的依赖度位居首位。与之形成对比的是，化工和制药企业在研发与生产环节上，表现出对美国市场更强的倾向性。另外，数字、电信以及半导体领域的企业，则无一例外地高度依赖来自中国和美国两地的供应商网络。

为了让这一现象更加具象化，研究人员在报告中列举了详实的商业案例。以知名车企宝马为例，该品牌目前在中国的营收规模已经全面超越了其在美国市场的收入。与此同时，宝马对中国电池供应商宁德时代及其英文缩写 CATL 展现出了极高的依赖，相关电池产品的供应价值超过了 14 亿欧元。另一家工业科技巨头西门子也呈现出类似格局，其总收入中有 24% 来源于美国，另有 12% 来自中国，且该集团复杂的供应链体系始终与这两个国家处于深度捆绑状态。

萨塞克斯大学政治经济学家兼该研究报告的联合撰稿人史蒂文·罗尔夫对这一局面做出了总结。他强调，像宝马和西门子这样处于行业领先地位的工业巨擘，其发展根基完全建立在高度全球化的体系之上。如果被迫切断与中国或美国的联系，这些企业必将遭受毁灭性的打击。罗尔夫进一步指出，正是企业界内部这种错综复杂的利益交织与冲突，使得德国在探索统一政治路线的道路上面临着几乎无法逾越的障碍。

The EU's flagship Africa project has been criticized for its ties to Chinese state-owned enterprises.

In the view of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the railway that winds through the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia to reach the Atlantic port of Lobito in Angola is "not just infrastructure."

The upgrade of the Lobito Corridor railway is the flagship project of the EU's €300 billion (US$346 billion) infrastructure initiative "Global Gateway," which was launched with much fanfare in 2021 to counter Beijing's Belt and Road Initiative.

This is also crucial for the EU to break free from China's monopoly on global supplies of critical minerals.

The corridor aims to transport copper and cobalt (key commodities that power high-tech products and the global industrial economy) from mines to ports in the fastest and cheapest way possible.

Now, EU lawmakers are demanding to know whether von der Leyen's investment of over $2.3 billion in European funds for the Lobito Corridor has been funneled to Chinese state-owned enterprises.

This funding will help upgrade and extend Angola's existing Benguela railway and extend it to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia.

The Angolan civil war destroyed its core infrastructure, much of which has been rebuilt by Chinese companies with funding supported by the Chinese government; moreover, the sponsors of its expansion projects have deep ties to Beijing.

Lobito Atlantic Railway (LAR) is a joint venture established by Swiss commodities trader Trafigura, Portuguese construction group Mota-Engil, and private railway company Vecturis. In 2022, the company received a 30-year concession for railway operations, management, and maintenance.

Since 2021, 30% of Mota-Engil's shares have been held by the Chinese state-owned company China Communications Construction Company (CCCC), raising concerns among lawmakers who believe European taxpayer money will strengthen geopolitical competitors.

In February of this year, Trafigura issued a press release praising the low-carbon intensive copper anodes produced by Kamoa Copper, which were sold for the first time to German metal supplier Aurubis Group.

These anodes were transported to Trafigura's inland port facility in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, then transferred by LAR to Lobito port, and subsequently shipped by Aurubis to European refineries "for their European refining operations."

According to a statement on Zijin Mining's website, this copper was produced at "the state-of-the-art copper smelter of the recently commissioned Kamoa-Kakula copper mine complex," in which Zijin Mining holds a 44.45% stake.

In 2021, von der Leyen stated when announcing the Global Gateway plan, "It makes no sense to build a perfect road between the copper mines owned by China and the ports owned by China."

In this situation, the EU seems to be repeating the mistakes that a German official had explicitly warned against.

A report passed by the European Parliament on Thursday called for "an immediate investigation into the involvement of all Chinese companies in the Global Gateway initiative."

The report stated that there have been reports that "some Global Gateway projects are being implemented by Chinese companies," which "directly violates the goal of providing an alternative to the Belt and Road Initiative."

Barry Andrews, chair of the Parliament's Development Committee, stated that this chaotic situation "highlights the relationship between the rhetoric we must be cautious about regarding the Global Gateway initiative and the complexities of global supply chains."

"Similarly, this information was also something we stumbled upon; the committee did not disclose it publicly," he added. "We can do better."

EU insiders indicated that while they are more inclined to avoid funding Chinese companies, they cannot rule out that certain Chinese companies have assisted in implementing some Global Gateway projects.

Part of the reason is that third-country partners have their own procurement rules and selection processes, which may lead to Chinese companies winning tenders for EU commitments to provide funding.

However, in the case of LAR, the public has known since as early as 2020, when Mota-Engil and CCCC reached an investment agreement, that this Chinese company was a major shareholder.

This situation exposes the challenges Europe faces: in the race for mineral resources, Europe is several years behind China and other competitors.

This is not the first time the EU has chosen a company partially controlled by China to assist in the construction of Global Gateway projects.

China-Europe trade: deficits, disputes, and de-risking.

In 2023, the South China Morning Post reported that one of the companies on the advisory board of the initiative is Chinese-controlled.

China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG) is a state-owned enterprise and is the largest shareholder of the Portuguese energy company (EDP). EDP is one of the companies providing consulting services for the "implementation of the Global Gateway strategy and the scaling of Global Gateway flagship projects" to the European Commission.

As the largest shareholder of EDP, China Telecom (controlled by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council) holds the largest voting power ratio.

EU spokesperson Guillaume Mosser stated that the EU "aims to ensure that its funding primarily benefits companies in Europe and partner countries."

"This is reflected in its procurement rules: for tenders directly managed by the EU, participation is usually restricted, meaning companies from the G20 countries outside the EU are generally not eligible to participate."

"However, many EU projects are implemented indirectly through partners like the European Investment Bank and other development financial institutions, which all adopt their own procurement frameworks," Mosser added.

"While these measures are based on open competition, they can facilitate broader participation."

He noted that in the next EU budget currently being negotiated in Brussels, "the Commission has proposed a more strategic and nuanced procurement approach... including measures to strengthen European priorities."

This aligns with the EU Commission's "Industrial Accelerator Act," a recently proposed initiative aimed at ensuring that in the procurement market of critical industries in the EU, European companies are favored over lower-priced Chinese competitors.

彭博社最新发布的一篇报道带来了一项不容忽视的提醒，能源行业的从业者们纷纷警告称，我们目前所面临的危机其实仅仅是个开端。在过去的一周时间里，该媒体与三十多名深耕石油和天然气领域的交易员、企业高管、经纪人、货运商及顾问进行了深入交流。这些业内人士在沟通中不断重申同一个关键信息，即整个世界尚且未能完全察觉到当下局势的严峻程度。

报道进一步提到，假若相关海峡的封闭状态一直持续下去，全球各地将别无选择，只能大规模缩减对石油和天然气的日常消耗。不过在真正迎来这种消耗锐减之前，能源市场的价格注定会经历一波急剧攀升。这波涨价潮将会达到极高的水平，最终迫使广大消费者以及各类企业不得不削减各项财务支出，并相应减少乘坐飞机与驾车出行的次数。

关于具身智能的GPT时刻应该如何界定，王兴兴向大家分享了一个十分直观的标准。他提出，当我们将机器人带入陌生的场景中，且仅凭语音指令就可以让它顺利执行并完成80%以上的任务时，就标志着这一关键节点的到来。此消息来源于金十数据APP。

备受瞩目的沿江高铁作为“十五五”规划纲要中的重点，已被正式纳入109项重大工程项目之中。这条高标准沿江高铁通道全长约2000公里，路线自上海起始，一路向西延伸至成都，将三大城市群紧密地串联在一起。

目前，这项“十五五”重大工程的标志性项目正处于热火朝天的建设阶段。中国即将在长江水下开通高铁，在距离长江水面89米的深处，一项激动人心的壮举正在进行，世界最大直径高铁盾构机正开足马力在这里加速掘进。

庞大的工程建设不仅是交通基础设施的飞跃，更是产业链协同发展的强力引擎。在复杂的穿隧架桥过程中，直接带动了超200台套盾构机与造桥机等大型设备的研发和定制工作。同时，高铁钢轨的铺设任务也为市场带来了高达57万吨的高强度特种钢销售订单。不仅如此，就连工程中用于拼装隧道的混凝土预制件，也成功催生出了一家全新的智能制造工厂。

资金投入与经济带动效应同样令人瞩目。沿江高铁的总投资规模超过了5000亿元，据专业测算，该项目的建设预计将带动上下游行业增加值实现近1.5万亿元的大幅增长。随着工程进度的不断推进，一条充满活力的全新经济走廊正在我们的见证下加速成型。

随着本周日清明节的临近，在快速城市化的推动下，城市中本就有限的墓地资源面临着更为紧张的需求。面对价格不菲的传统墓地，部分家庭另辟蹊径，选择将逝去亲人的骨灰安放在空置的高层建筑内，这些建筑由此得名骨灰公寓。然而，中国目前正积极采取行动严厉打击这一现象，并于本周二正式生效了一项新法律来全面取缔该做法。

这一替代方案的盛行并非偶然。在人口迅速老龄化以及房地产泡沫破裂的大背景下，相较于传统墓地，住宅公寓在安放亲人遗骸方面展现出了更高的现实价值。一个非常直观的对比是，中国的住宅用地能够享受政府提供的长达70年的使用权，而墓地的租赁期却仅有短短的20年。

针对这种特殊的社会现象，加州大学尔湾分校的博士生吴欣怡撰写了一份名为《逝者空间》的研究报告。她在报告中深刻指出，当一个空间逐渐丧失其原本的居住属性时，人们自然而然会赋予它全新的意义。对于众多家庭而言，妥善存放亲人的骨灰便成为了这种新价值的最好体现。

Ark Investment's Latest Trading Update: Cathie Wood Reduces Holdings in Nvidia and Meta, Shifts Focus to Healthcare Sector

According to a report released by Gelonghui on March 30, the highly watched "Wood Lady" Cathie Wood and her leadership at Ark Investment (ARK Invest) announced the latest trading data for their ETFs last Friday. The disclosed information indicates that the institution is making a significant strategic adjustment to its asset portfolio, primarily involving a withdrawal of funds from certain technology stocks and a shift towards increased investment in the healthcare sector.

In terms of fund operations in the technology and semiconductor sectors, Ark Investment's reduction in holdings is quite pronounced. Specifically, the institution sold a total of 58,119 shares of Nvidia through its three fund products: ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW), and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), successfully cashing out approximately $9.95 million. At the same time, Ark Investment also reduced its holdings in Meta and AMD, selling 10,500 shares of Meta stock and 19,126 shares of AMD stock, with these two transactions involving funds of approximately $5.75 million and about $3.90 million, respectively.

In stark contrast to the outflow of funds from the technology sector, Ark Investment has demonstrated a positive buying intent in the healthcare market. Data shows that its ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) has undertaken an increased investment action, purchasing 48,659 shares of Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings, with the total investment amounting to approximately $344,500.

特朗普称伊朗已接受美方15项停战要求中的绝大多数

金十数据3月30日讯。当地时间周日，美国总统特朗普在乘坐空军一号专机时向随行记者透露了一个重要信息。他指出，华盛顿此前向德黑兰提交了一份包含15项停战要求的清单，而伊朗方面目前已经满足了其中的大部分内容。特朗普进一步提到，对方已经达到了美方的大多数核心要点，并反问他们有什么理由不接受，同时补充说美国接下来还会追加几项其他要求。不过，当被问及伊朗到底在哪些具体方面做出了让步时，他拒绝给出明确的答复。不仅如此，现阶段外界也无法确认美伊双方是否真的已经进入了实质性的谈判阶段。

与美方表态形成鲜明对比的是伊朗在公开层面的强硬立场。德黑兰方面不仅明确表示拒绝接受这15项停火条件的清单，反而向美方抛出了属于自身的五项前提条件。在伊朗提出的这些前提里，最核心的一条便是要求实现对霍尔木兹海峡主权的完全掌控。

与此同时，国际社会也在积极为这场冲突寻找出路。就在本周末，来自巴基斯坦、沙特阿拉伯以及土耳其的官员们举行了会晤，共同探讨化解当前危机的可行方案。尽管目前的会谈尚无迹象表明已经取得实质性进展，但巴基斯坦外长在与各国同行交流后分享了一个积极的信号。他提到，伊朗与美国均已表示出对巴基斯坦的信任，并且双方都乐意由巴方来主办接下来的后续谈判。即便如此，从目前的局势来看，无论是美国还是伊朗，都尚未明确表明已经做好了开展直接对话的准备。（金十数据APP）

According to a report by Yicai, DeepSeek has experienced a continuous overnight service interruption. On the evening of March 29, the platform encountered widespread access anomalies. Many users reported that when trying to use the web and App, the system frequently prompted "Server busy" or became completely unresponsive. This sudden situation quickly drew everyone's attention, and the related topic soon climbed the Weibo hot search list.

As of the morning of March 30, reporters found that after opening DeepSeek, the previous technical malfunction still had not been fixed. Users were still unable to successfully submit any questions, and the page would directly pop up a reminder saying "Please check your network and try again." As of the time of this article's publication, DeepSeek has not yet provided any official public response to this sudden large-scale outage.

Recently, Iran launched an attack on a factory in the Middle East. As a result of this sudden event, the aluminum trading prices in the LME market have surged, with an overall increase of 5%.

Due to the further escalation of the war situation in Iran, market risk aversion sentiment has been rapidly ignited, leading to significant pressure on multiple major stock indices. In the Asian market, the South Korean KOSPI index experienced a substantial drop of 5%, while the downward trend of the Japanese Topix index has also intensified, with a decline expanding to 4.5%. Dragged down by the overall bearish atmosphere, the MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 2%, with the specific index level dropping to 229.70 points. In addition, this risk aversion sentiment has also spread to external markets, with the Nasdaq 100 index futures currently seeing a decline that has also expanded to 1%.