I usually don't mix politics with investments, but it's impossible to ignore how geopolitical and fiscal decisions directly impact the cryptocurrency market. I had the expectation that a potential return of Trump could be positive for the sector — especially due to a more pro-market stance and potential reduction of regulatory pressures — however, in practice, the scenario has been proving to be much more negative than I imagined.
The central problem is not “politician X or Y,” but the set of effects that economic policies and international tensions can generate: increased uncertainty, flight to defensive assets (like the dollar and Treasuries), global liquidity contraction, and reduced risk appetite. Historically, when the market enters risk-off mode, volatile assets like cryptocurrencies suffer first, especially altcoins, which heavily depend on liquidity and speculative flow.
Moreover, the global context is already delicate: still high interest rates in the US, persistent inflation in some categories, and a Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance. As a result, any political noise that increases instability tends to worsen financial conditions. And crypto, like it or not, is still very sensitive to the “cost of money” and macro sentiment.
As a Brazilian, I also observe a concerning parallel: economies with fiscal instability and low institutional predictability tend to see currency devaluation, increased risk premium, and loss of purchasing power. This directly affects the perception of the investor, including local ones, who starts to seek protection — whether in dollars or in Bitcoin — but with much more fear and less capacity to allocate capital at risk.
In summary: I really expected that Trump could contribute positively to the crypto market, but what I see now is an increase in global uncertainty and a macro scenario that favors volatility, corrections, and reduced liquidity. In the end, the market does not react to political narratives, but rather to the measurable economic impacts they generate.