The latest market forecast on December 16 shows that as Trump's confidant pushes for Warsh to take over as Chair of the Federal Reserve, the probability of betting on Warsh becoming the next Chair of the Federal Reserve has surpassed Hassett, jumping to the top position. The Deutsche Bank team pointed out that if Warsh takes office, he may support #降息 while promoting the reduction of the balance sheet (QT), but the premise is that regulatory reforms can reduce banks' demand for reserves, and whether this can be implemented in the short term remains uncertain. #美联储降息
This year, Warsh proposed that "inflation is a choice," believing that inflation is more a result of the Federal Reserve's own policies rather than supply chain or geopolitical factors. He advocates for the central bank to return to its core mission of price stability while allowing the Treasury to perform its own functions. He is optimistic about the U.S. economic outlook, believing that AI and deregulation may bring about a productivity explosion similar to that of the 1980s.
In terms of experience, Warsh has a background as a lawyer and served as a Federal Reserve Governor (2006-2011), playing a key communication role during the global financial crisis. He criticized the deviation of quantitative easing from the core functions of the central bank over the past 15 years. He is currently a partner at Duquesne, a visiting scholar at the Hoover Institution, and a lecturer at Stanford Business School, with a wide influence in academic, regulatory, and investment circles.