Celestia (TIA) is facing increasing downward pressure, as both market structure and investor sentiment are weakening simultaneously.
Despite only a slight decrease of 1.3% in the past 24 hours, foundational signals indicate that the downward trend may widen further. The increasing circulating supply amid weakening demand is causing the market balance to tilt distinctly towards the sell side, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.
Increasing supply pressure from the token unlock event
The market is preparing to receive a token unlock event, with a new amount of TIA expected to be circulated on March 29.
According to data from DeFiLlama, the amount of unlocked tokens accounts for only 0.032% of the total circulating supply, equivalent to about 85,000 USD at the time of writing. Although relatively small in scale, such events often have a significant impact on short-term market sentiment.
Source: CoinGlass
This portion of tokens is allocated for research & development activities along with core members of the ecosystem, reflecting practical use purposes. However, the reality shows that the market's response to unlock events is often influenced by sentiment rather than fundamentals. In the context of the overall trend leaning towards bearishness, additional supply may continue to amplify downward pressure.
The spot market is reversing to a bearish state.
Selling pressure in the spot market has noticeably increased. On March 28, spot investors sold approximately 513,000 USD TIA, marking a significant shift in market behavior.
Notably, this move comes right after four consecutive accumulation sessions, making the reversal signal clearer. The shift from a stable buying state to strong selling usually reflects a decrease in confidence and an increase in cautious trends.
The negative trend is also spreading to the derivatives market. Data shows synchronized weakness, further reinforcing the bearish argument for TIA.
Source: CoinGlass
The open interest (OI) index weighted by funding rate has shifted to negative territory, indicating that leveraged positions are primarily concentrated on the short side.
At -0.0057%, this index reflects an increasingly clear trend of betting on downward momentum. As a result, long positions are under strong liquidation pressure, with a total value of nearly 99,990 USD, far exceeding the approximately 16,690 USD of short positions.
Breaking the structure opens up risks for deeper declines.
Technically, TIA has lost the accumulation zone that lasted from February 5, ending a months-long sideways phase. This breakout not only weakens the support structure but also reinforces the current downward momentum.
The price is currently trading below the important support level of 0.2967 USD. If it maintains a close below this level, the downward trend will be confirmed more clearly, while opening up the possibility of the price retreating to the 0.233 USD area in the near future.
Source: TradingView
In the context where both fundamental factors and technical signals align towards the negative direction, TIA still poses a risk of further adjustments. To reverse the trend, the market needs to witness a strong enough return of buying power at key price levels to restore upward momentum.
https://coinphoton.com/tia-doi-mat-ap-luc-giam-gia-khi-celestia-mo-khoa-token.html