南山留声机wu(@Damonwu)'s insights

This is the largest upgrade of the oil order in half a century, with the United States intending to re-establish dominance over the global energy narrative.
On the surface, fleets from multiple countries are escorting shipping in the Middle East, seemingly to stabilize geopolitical risks and lower oil prices.
But in reality, the U.S. is deliberately maintaining a floor on oil prices through ambiguous statements, preventing a significant drop in prices.
The goal is to leave room for creating inflation later; retail investors think oil prices will fall, but they are actually stepping into a trap.
Stagflation conspiracy—using inflation to evaporate national debt, the dollar and gold have experienced a rare synchronized plunge, signaling actively released by the U.S. The core logic: for every 1% increase in inflation, the U.S. can effectively dilute about $390 billion of national debt.
This is a financial operation using money printing and inflation as a "default" strategy, with the costs borne by those globally holding dollar assets.
Hegemonic transfer—focusing on Iran, overturning OPEC+, the U.S. Treasury Secretary is aiming at Iran's crude oil production capacity, attempting to bring it under control. Once successful, it will fundamentally undermine OPEC+'s oil pricing power.
Gold has fallen instead of rising after the outbreak of conflict (dropping from around $5300 to below $5000)—this is the most bizarre and crucial signal.
Therefore, in a high-interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold is extremely high.
Expectations of further interest rate hikes make funds reluctant to flow massively into gold.
Even if geopolitical tensions escalate, as long as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, gold will always have a ceiling pressing down.
Do not make judgments based on old scripts:
War breaks out → Gold must rise— Wrong, this time gold has fallen
Escort fleet enters → Oil prices must fall— Wrong, oil prices' bottom has been locked
Wait for interest rate cuts → Go long on gold— Wrong, interest rate cuts are a long way off #全球市场波动  #黄金  

.css-1iqe90x{box-sizing:border-box;margin:0;min-width:0;color:#EAECEF;}This is the largest upgrade of the oil order in half a century, with the United States intending to re-establish dominance over the global energy narrative.

This is the largest upgrade of the oil order in half a century, with the United States intending to re-establish dominance over the global energy narrative.