📊 Analysis of BTC at the end of the week
📅 BTC on the W frame has formed an inverted red hammer candle continuing a long-bodied red candle, fluctuating around the price level of 66.6k RSI after a slight recovery from the oversold area is now continuing to head down, the possibility of continuing to drop into the oversold area is high.
In many years of history, there has been only one instance of the W frame, where RSI dropped into the oversold area, then the price sideway down created a new bottom but not too deep and RSI created divergence.
👉 If history repeats itself, there is a possibility that BTC will continue to drop to the area of 58k – 50k.
On the daily frame, the last 2 days of the weekend the price is sideway, low volume as usual, RSI weakens with a downward trend.
On the 4h frame, BTC price is sideway up pressing close to EMA21, the price is moving within the range created by a previous green candle.
The RSI on the 4h frame also shows one instance of being oversold and RSI has had a wave of recovery but not enough to signal significant accumulation. The likelihood that BTC price will continue to drop is quite high in this 4h frame.
➡️ Therefore, the scenario should lean more towards the short side.
📉 Scenario 1
At the beginning of the week, the price recovers to the area of 67k4, this is the price zone of a previously broken short-term bottom. If a shooting star candle appears here,
👉 The possibility that this is a liquidity grab sign, then it will be a signal to possibly start entering a short position. This scenario may have a high probability.
📉 Scenario 2
If the BTC price breaks below the range, closing below 66k3 clearly, then one can also look for short scalp opportunities according to the bias that the price may drop further to create an RSI divergence 👉 After that, wait for accumulation signs and a reversal after the divergence to long again.