Is ETH going to be surpassed by USDT? The top two are at risk, will we see 1250?
Brothers, this set of data is too heartbreaking!
Polymarket shows that the probability of Ethereum falling out of the top two by market cap in 2026 has surged from 17% at the beginning of the year to 59%. Who is that 'two'? Surprisingly, it's USDT!
Data comparison:
· Ethereum: 5-year market cap growth of 11.75%, about 240 billion
· USDT: 5-year growth of 622.5%, exceeding 184 billion
· The spot ETF size for ETH has dropped from 31.8 billion to 11.7 billion, a shrinkage of 65%
Translated into plain language: Everyone is avoiding risks, no one wants to buy ETH, they are all rushing to hold USDT's leg.
The technical outlook is even worse:
The current trend shows a 'bear flag' pattern, and if it effectively breaks below the lower track, it could test 1250 dollars in June. From just over 2000 now, there's still nearly 40% room for decline.
My view:
· Short-term: Macro headwinds + war + no chance of interest rate cuts, ETH is unlikely to have an independent market
· Mid-term: 1250 is not impossible, but that position is a chip area for 2023, once we reach it, you can buy with your eyes closed
· Long-term: ETH will not be permanently surpassed by USDT, but we need to wait for a macro turnaround
Da Hui's trading advice:
· For those in cash: Don't catch the bottom, wait until below 1800 to talk
· For those with long positions: Reduce positions above 2000, exit if it falls below 1900
· For those wanting to short: Try shorting with a small position in the 2050-2100 area, stop loss at 2200
Final reminder:
USDT surpassing ETH is not because ETH is failing, but because the market is too timid. When the wind comes, ETH is still that ETH. But before the wind comes, just survive.
For those who don't know how to time the market, you can consult Hui Ge, who will analyze in real-time for 25 hours every day, providing the best entry points. Daily updates with fresh information and in-depth analysis.