Brothers, this data is a bit heart-wrenching— the probability of Ethereum dropping out of the top two by market cap in 2026 has skyrocketed from 17% at the beginning of the year to 59%, and the competitor replacing it is actually the stablecoin USDT!
Let me break down the logic behind this phenomenon for you:
First, why does USDT threaten ETH?
In the past five years, the market cap of ETH has only increased by 11.75%, while USDT has grown by 622.50% during the same period, with a market cap exceeding $184 billion. XRP and USDC have also seen greater increases than ETH. What does this indicate? Funds are flowing towards 'certainty'—in a bear market, stablecoins and payment tokens are more resilient than smart contract platforms.
Second, is a 59% probability credible?
This data comes from Polymarket and is the result of real money betting. The market is voting with its feet: ETH has dropped from 4000 to 2000, ecosystem growth is weak, gas fees are sluggish, while USDT continues to drain liquidity with its absolute dominance in TRC-20.
Third, the implications for us:
· ETH is not unholdable, but expectations should be lowered. The past story of 'flippening' may not be told for a while
· Focus on assets like USDT, USDC, and XRP that have 'real demand'. Surviving in a bear market is more important than telling stories
· Position allocation should be diversified. Don’t go all in on ETH; consider pairing with stablecoins for yield or top L1s
In terms of action, ETH around 2000 can be held with a small position, but don’t go heavy. If you want to follow my adjustments, message me to join the group.