#重大新闻 CME「Federal Reserve Watch」latest data: The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in April has dropped to 4.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is as high as 95.9%!

Do you remember? On March 23, this rate hike probability surged to 12.4%, causing quite a panic among many who feared the Federal Reserve might change its stance again. What happened? In just a week, the rate hike expectations were almost wiped out.

What does this indicate? It indicates that the market's previous over-trading of 'rate hike panic' is rapidly dissipating. The tightening tail is becoming increasingly elusive.

From Bowman’s 'three rate cuts' to Milan’s 'four rate cuts', and now the rate hike probability is only 4%—the direction of the entire macro narrative is already very clear: 2026 will be the year of liquidity turning, not a year of tightening.

Many are still fixated on the market's fear index and negative funding rates, thinking the market is hopeless. But I want to ask: When the rate hike probability is nearly zero and a rate cut is a foregone conclusion, what are you still afraid of?

The cryptocurrency circle has always been a game of expectations. With macro expectations shifting, smart money is already quietly entering the market. When the rate hike completely falls through and the rate cut truly takes effect, do you think prices will still wait for you?

At this position, I don't ask you to go all in, but at least don't let panic lead you to cut losses. Maintain your composure and hold onto your positions.

The wind direction has completely changed; the rest is left to time. Follow me, @大陈说币 and let's wait for the wind together! #全球市场波动