In 1979, the Iran crisis drove oil prices, and gold peaked from $200 to $850 in a frenzy. The crowd celebrated a new golden era. But they were wrong. And the ending was extremely brutal.
The current market structure is confusingly similar to:
• Rapid escalation of the Iran conflict.
• High oil prices putting pressure on cost-push inflation.
• Global supply chains under stress.
• Inflation returning after a long period of suppression.
Gold is NOT a safe haven during crises.
It is merely a safe haven UNTIL Central Banks (CBs) react.
• Loose liquidity + Fear = Gold rises.
• Inflation forces the Fed to tighten + Liquidity withdrawal = Gold is the biggest victim.
Retail investors are crowding into gold believing it to be "safe." Confidence is at an all-time high.
But remember: The highest risk is when people feel the safest.
The real pain does not come from war; it comes from Policy Response.
• Crisis ➔ Gold prices rise.
• CBs tighten ➔ Liquidity withdrawal.
• Then ➔ A severe collapse.
We are getting very close to the pivot point.
Will you still dare to hold gold when the Fed truly returns to an extreme "Hawkish" policy to salvage the USD?
This time may not be different. ⚠️
