$BTC Latest BTC: STH-Realized-Price to <10y-Realized-Price Ratio Indicator Analysis
More on-chain indicator analysis details
View https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.surf.computer
Indicator details:
The current indicator in the chart has dropped to 2.83
In 2014, this indicator dropped to 1.36 and after 63 days reached the bear bottom ($0.15k)
In 2018, this indicator dropped to 1.36 and after 56 days reached the bear bottom ($3.1k)
In 2022, this indicator dropped to 1.36 and after 7 days reached the second bear bottom ($17.6k)
The gray line at the top of the chart represents the price of $BTC ; the yellow line represents the average cost price for short-term BTC holders; the magenta line represents the average cost price for long-term BTC holders (excluding coins held for >10 years)
The indicator at the bottom of the chart shows the ratio of "BTC short-term holder average cost price" to "BTC long-term holder average cost price (excluding >10y coin version)" (i.e.: yellow line / magenta line)
BTC short-term holder average cost price definition: The average cost of investors holding Bitcoin <155 days.
Meaning: Reflects the cost basis of recent buyers, who are sensitive to price fluctuations and prone to selling during declines.
Commonly used as a short-term market sentiment indicator—prices above this average in a bull market, breaking below may exacerbate selling in a bear market
BTC long-term holder average cost price definition: The average cost of investors holding Bitcoin >155 days, excluding coins held for >10 years (these may be lost or never moved, like Satoshi's coins).
Meaning: Focuses on "active" long-term holders, providing a more realistic cost basis. Often used as a market support level reference—may become a price bottom in a bear market
The ratio of the two (short-term average price / long-term average price) meaning: Reflects market cycle phases and participant behavior:
Ratio >1: Short-term buyer costs are high (new funds entering at high prices), sentiment is optimistic but may be overheated
Ratio <1: Bear market or bottom signal, short-term buyer costs are low (entering at low prices), weak hands are clearing out, the market may recover
Overall trend: Ratio rising = bull market continuation; falling = bear market or distribution phase.
Excluding >10-year coins makes the ratio capture cyclical turning points more accurately,
Historically, <1 has often been a long-term buying opportunity
