Bitcoin looks structurally fragile, according to a fresh analysis from XWIN Research Japan shared on CryptoQuant’s QuickTake. The research group argues that the market’s current weakness is the product of several converging forces — and that small institutional flows could still swing prices dramatically given today’s thin liquidity. Key takeaways from XWIN’s assessment - Trading volume has fallen significantly over the past few months, leaving liquidity sparse. In low-liquidity conditions, even modest flows or news can create outsized moves. - Active Addresses — the metric tracking unique wallets sending or receiving BTC — has declined alongside price, signaling weak demand and making a sustainable recovery less likely. - Some on-chain indicators have improved recently, but not enough to confidently call a trend reversal; any bounce could be temporary. Macro backdrop amplifies the risk XWIN also highlights macroeconomic pressure points. Rising oil prices tied to the US–Israel–Iran conflict have pushed inflation expectations higher, increasing the odds of further rate-hike expectations and tighter financial conditions. Those inflation worries have driven bond sell-offs and synchronized declines across equities, gold, and cryptocurrencies — a departure from a classic “risk-off” rotation into perceived safe havens like bonds. Outlook XWIN Research Japan sees more downside risk for Bitcoin in the near term unless liquidity and on-chain activity meaningfully recover. The group flags the geopolitical situation (US–Israel–Iran tensions) as a central variable, since it affects inflation, interest-rate expectations, and therefore broader market direction. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $65,981, down roughly 4.01% over the past 24 hours, per CoinMarketCap. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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