The recent market conditions are indeed trying.
Just after the largest quarterly options expiration in history, BTC hasn't even had a moment to catch its breath before being splashed with 'cold water' from continuous ETF outflows. Originally thought that 70,000 dollars was the starting point, but now everyone is watching the psychological defense line of 65,000.
Currently, there are three details worth savoring:
1. Large order flow and liquidation map:
Currently, more than 3 billion dollars of leveraged long positions are lurking below 65,000 dollars. For the main players (market makers), this is like a piece of fat meat. Once it falls below 65,000, it could easily trigger a chain liquidation, and the price may quickly plunge towards the 63,000-64,000 region.
2. European session dynamics and capital sentiment:
Entering the European session in the afternoon, market selling pressure remains evident. The fear index has dropped directly to 13, entering the 'extreme fear' zone. Experienced traders know that market trends are born out of despair, but under this 'freezing point' sentiment, the risk of bottom-fishing on the left side is extremely high; it is better to wait for clear signals on the right side.
3. The 'bloodletting' effect of ETFs:
Recent fund inflows from major players like BlackRock have slowed down, or even turned into outflows, which means that outside incremental capital is hesitating. Without this driving force, it is difficult to generate significant market movements just relying on retail traders competing with each other.
To summarize:
The key resistance level for short-term BTC is at 68,000, and the support level is firmly at 65,000.
• Aggressive approach: You can place light orders around 64,500 - 65,000 to bet on a rebound, and be sure to set a stop-loss.
• Conservative approach: It is recommended to watch more and act less, wait for the 65,000 support to be confirmed, or wait for the daily line to stabilize above 68,500 before considering entering the market.
Now is the time for patience, not bravery. Don't get liquidated before dawn!
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