#比特币 is about to record the 6th consecutive monthly bearish candle.
This is not a daily pin bar, nor a weekly fluctuation, but a steady decline over the course of six months. Historically, this has only happened once—between August 2018 and January 2019, during which a 6-month drop of approximately 60% occurred, directly pushing a generation out of the market.
Currently, this round has retraced about 47% from the peak. It has not reached the extreme levels of that time, but the pattern is similar: it is not a sudden crash, but a continuous decline that gradually drains the sentiment. Every month, someone says, "It's about time," and then the next month continues to close red.
What is truly striking is not the percentage, but the "record." Experiencing six consecutive months of decline is, in itself, an extreme condition. When the market enters this rhythm, it indicates that buyers are consistently losing strength, rebounds lack sustainability, and funds are more willing to wait for lower positions.
But from another perspective, what happened after that historical six-month decline? A rebound in 2019 doubled the value. It was not because the news suddenly improved, but because the selling pressure was completely exhausted. The essence of consecutive bearish candles is that shares continuously flow out of the hands of those with weak sentiment.
The current environment is not exactly the same as in 2018. Back then, it was the collapse of the ICO bubble; now it is a combination of macro tightening, ETF fund speculation, and overlapping geopolitical risks. The structure is different, but the sentiment remains the same—exhaustion, doubt, and weariness.
Six consecutive months of decline indeed looks bad, but the real question is: when everyone is worn down to the point of not wanting to look at the candlestick chart, who is quietly accumulating shares?
History does not simply repeat itself, but the psychological cycles of the market have never changed. Are we setting a "record for declines" now, or preparing for the next cycle? The answer may not wait until the 7th monthly candle to be revealed.
#全球市场波动 $BTC