March 28 / Sunny /
I went to the gym at noon, a few people had just finished eating. When they saw me coming, they asked if I wanted to play a game of Guandan. I wasn't really willing to play this thing. But now, everyone is playing it.
Two big brothers in one group, I and Sister Lime in another. Brother B drove a BYD Song, he asked me if driving a Tesla for long distances causes range anxiety? I said, I haven't heard the term 'range anxiety' in a long time. Now, countless charging stations have been built in service areas, and by the time you finish urinating and eating, the battery is fully charged.
I told him to trust that the smartest and richest people in this world exist. I am using FSD every day now. Let's put it this way, it drives safer than I do; I occasionally get distracted and check my phone, but it doesn't. It is always working seriously, and safety is always the top priority.
People have emotions; they can be greedy and fearful, but the cold, hard logic at the bottom does not change. After the game, Brother A talked about the recent changes in the situation.
The topic goes around and around, but it always revolves around the money in hand. During the 2024 gathering, Brother Niu mentioned that his greatest realization over the past two years is that the importance of asset allocation outweighs that of tactics and strategies.
Why does he mention this? Because from 2021 to 2024, the stock market has been continuously declining. However, some people's assets have been reaching new highs. Because they are globally diversified.
In the past, Brother Niu did not accept these. The teacher from Qingzhou who guided me in asset allocation once said a very clear statement: a major sign of maturity is realizing that our parents are ordinary people, we ourselves are ordinary people, our children are ordinary people, and our country is also an ordinary country. Therefore, when investing, we should choose the top-tier options, not necessarily what's at hand.
For this reason, I even wrote an article stating that every losing retail investor is paying for their cognitive shortcomings, just two words: deserved.
People should never confine themselves to their own village, nor should they always feel that their village is so great. This time when I returned home to pay respects, my dad sighed that the village had paved asphalt roads, exaggeratedly even divided into solid and dashed lines, and should soon install traffic lights, but there’s no one left in the village.
No matter how good the village is, we won't go back. Why do we always say, 'vote with your feet'? What do these four words mean? It means, without barriers, the direction you walk in is the direction of civilization.
The instinct of capital is always faster than people's feet. The smartest and largest money always goes to places without barriers and where cutting leeks is most efficient.
This logic applies equally to specific trading situations. Looking at the red and green numbers bouncing on the screen is actually just a bunch of people picking each other's pockets at the card table. Yesterday, $ETH the dealer made a huge panic sell at the 1966 position.
This is similar to those big bosses in reality liquidating bankrupt companies, forcing you into a corner and taking away all the bloody chips at a low price.
What happens after the crash? The price is now bouncing back to around 2005.
Many people see this and think, oh, it can't fall any further, so they start secretly propping up funds to test the waters. This is just like seeing that the village has paved asphalt roads, feeling everything getting better again, and preparing to rush in with full positions to bottom out.
In fact, people are watching you smile from a height. The macro direction remains a downhill path where the highs and lows are continuously decreasing.
Now this rebound of a few dozen points is just a little candy given to the desperate. The main force is lurking at the threshold between 2020 and 2040.
Here are those people trapped by the upper echelons, anxiously waiting for a way out. When you excitedly climb up, the main force will draw a big pie for you there, pretending to break through, tricking you into getting on board, then dumping all the burdens on you.
After the crash, directly go for the old bottom at 1900.
This is the same principle as doing business; cleaning everything out, leaving no scraps behind. So, don't chase highs in the short term.
📌 Tactical and point reference
Tactical direction: High altitude
Hunter position: 2025 - 2035
Logic: They have laid down a web above, and rushing up now is like hurrying to reincarnate.
Life-saving bottom line: Break through 2058
Logic: If the price breaks this point, admit the mistake, life is important, never hold the position.
Taking profit range: 1975 reduce position / 1919 clear out
My Japanese ex-girlfriend once discussed a viewpoint that I think is particularly good. We must consider whether our emotions and preferences are based on ourselves or on external education. One is a real feedback on whether we genuinely like something, and the other is something we’ve been conditioned to believe.
Trading is also about examining one's own heart.
K-line is a mirror that reflects your psychological greed, anger, and ignorance.