A Week of Macro Turmoil: US-Iran Standoff Escalates, Rate Hike Expectations Suddenly Resurface!
In the past seven days, global markets have been swayed by two forces—geopolitics + monetary policy, with long and short positions intertwined, leading to significant volatility.
The Strait of Hormuz tightens, crude oil returns to high levels, and global inflation expectations rise again.
The Federal Reserve's tone has suddenly changed: expectations for interest rate cuts have rapidly cooled, and the market has even begun to reprice the possibility of rate hikes.
The US dollar index rises above 100, US Treasury yields climb, and signals of tightening global liquidity are clear.
Asset performance shows a stark contrast:
Crude oil and gold are strongly volatile.
US tech stocks are pressured and leading the decline.
The yen approaches the intervention line, and non-US currencies are generally under pressure.
Meanwhile, countries are accelerating adjustments: Japan releases strategic oil reserves, Singapore rushes to build a gold hub, and Turkey uses gold to address liquidity pressures...
The market has entered a high volatility cycle of "conflict → inflation → policy tightening → asset revaluation."
In the short term, the main focus is on the Middle East situation + how global central banks will move.👀
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