The Next Bull Market: BTC Steady Foundation, ETH Striving for Height?
In my personal judgment, the next bull market will see BTC return to $150,000 without much problem, but replicating the early multiples of soaring prices will be very challenging.
The core logic of this round is compliance. BTC is gradually being accepted by mainstream finance, and institutions and some governments only recognize BTC, unwilling to touch other altcoins. Therefore, this round is basically a strong performance of BTC alone, and even ETH's performance is not ideal.
Also due to compliance, BTC has completed its wild growth phase. After the market cap has grown, the explosive power of incremental funds will decline. Most of the institutions that should have come in have already entered, and it is difficult to expect a new wave of retail investors to push the price to ridiculous levels. Returning to $100,000 is a cyclical correction, but it is unrealistic to expect another super increase like in the past.
A bigger problem is that the industry environment is becoming increasingly chaotic, with rampant scams and severe meme harvesting, which weakens the entire circle's ability to attract new funds. Without new actual value output, it will not be beneficial for BTC in the long term.
Therefore, I am more focused on whether there will be a new narrative in the next round, and in this regard, I am more optimistic about ETH. In the past few years, it has optimized speed and transaction fees without significantly sacrificing decentralization, and advancements in Layer 2 ecosystems, on-chain finance, and asset tokenization are underway, with practicality beginning to emerge.
Today's ETH does not lack infrastructure; what is lacking is a trigger point. As long as a certain hotspot ignites market sentiment, it may well become the core of the next bull market. Simply put, BTC is more stable, but the variable that determines the height may lie with ETH.