$BTC Regarding the Iran-US war, I personally believe that it is not yet time to end it. The Americans have repeatedly proposed negotiations, and I feel that part of the reason for this is to explain themselves domestically, indicating that they do not want to fight. However, Iran does not appreciate this, which can somewhat shift the internal contradictions within the US. History has proven that when the Americans say they want to negotiate, it does not mean they will not fight you.

Moreover, the resilience of the Americans is stronger than we imagine. For example, during the Vietnam War, there were four-party talks that lasted for 147 rounds over four years. In the Afghan War, there were 9 rounds of talks over two years. However, during the negotiations, fighting continued unabated. For the Americans, fighting is like doing business; they generally throw out the idea of negotiations first. If you don't comply, they continue to apply pressure, then bring up negotiations again, and if you don't comply again, they fight while negotiating.

Generally, the US will only choose to compromise when they have completely subdued you or feel that it is unnecessary to continue playing around. However, in the case of Iran, it is highly unlikely they will completely compromise. Therefore, I personally believe that if the US reaches certain conditions during this period, such as strengthening control over the oil supply chain or increasing control over the Middle East, it is more likely they will cool down, resulting in a phased ceasefire where both sides take a step back and let it go. Judging by the current situation, I think the chances of a one-sided scenario are very low. For example, if Iran completely controls the Strait of Hormuz, not only would the Americans disagree, but other major powers would also not agree.

The war has not yet ended, and the situation has not yet eased. Additionally, the market is currently extremely sensitive, so I estimate there will likely be another wave of cleaning, followed by a long period of bottom consolidation. Only then might a new trend emerge #美伊和谈陷僵局 .