Trump's recent actions are really hard to understand.
Just before, he was shouting that America needs to make Iran's "most terrifying nightmare" come true, threatening ground invasion, and then he directly announced a pause on strikes against energy facilities until April 6, saying he gave 10 days instead of the 7 days that Iran wanted. What is this strategy? Extreme stretching? Or is it really as the mediating officials said, that he is confident Iran will surrender, which is why he is willing to give this window period?
To be honest, I’m a bit confused too.
But one thing is certain: the previous wave of optimism in the market has basically been digested.
Business Insider published an article today with a very direct title: Trump's optimism about the agreement to end the Iran war has faded, leading to a drop in the stock market and a surge in oil prices. What does this mean? It means that capital has started to vote with its feet. Everyone previously bet on smooth negotiations and reduced risks, and now that logic has been thrown into question.
Just think about it, Trump himself reiterated that Iran's navy and communication systems have already been "destroyed". This statement does not look like a gesture of goodwill at all; it seems more like laying out the cards before negotiations: I have already crippled you, now let’s talk about a good price.
So the current situation is:
Iran is voluntarily softening and asking for a pause, and the U.S. is giving a step down in response, but both sides are testing each other's bottom lines. What will happen in 10 days? Continue negotiations? Or a new round of more intense strikes?
What the market fears most now is not the strikes, but this uncertainty hanging in the air.
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