Against the backdrop of BTC's decline, gold is also decreasing. An interesting correlation that we have observed for the past few weeks, especially amidst the war in the Middle East.
The scenario of the expected rebound, which was discussed, in particular, on Monday and Wednesday - is under threat.
On Wednesday, it was noted that for the development of the rebound, tokenized gold #XAUT needs to hold above $4,614 with a hourly candle. There was no hold, the peak of the rebound was $4,584, and the price has been declining again since March 25. It has fallen into stable downtrends on the hourly, 2-hour, and, most importantly, - 3-hour time frames. In the rebound, the uptrend for the price only remained on the 4-hour time frame.
On March 25, we wrote - "we will only add to the short position early if the uptrend on the 3-hour timeframe is broken." Just to remind, the plan was to accumulate on the rebound to $4,950, and with clear buyer interest - to move the order higher to $5,113. But there is no visible buyer interest.
Having seen the current picture regarding potential low markers - we still decided not to rush with early addition to the short during the downtrend on the 3-hour timeframe. Because the picture looks like this:
- three potential low markers on the 3-hour timeframe,
- three potential low markers on the 4-hour timeframe,
- two potential low markers on the 5-hour timeframe,
- two potential low markers on the 2-day timeframe,
- one potential low marker on the 3-day timeframe.
The last two are the main arguments for not rushing to add a short position from the current levels. However, if the price falls into a sustained downtrend on the 4-hour timeframe, we will add to the position. For now, it will be a small part.
Currently, the short position is profitable by +245%. We remind you that the short position on tokenized gold #XAUT with a leverage of 17 was opened on March 6 at the level of $5,117 due to a downtrend signal on the 12-hour timeframe. But this profitability is on a small part of the deposit allocated for a long-term short on gold. And a favorable entry point can easily be spoiled by an unsuccessful addition to the position. Therefore, if all low markers do not work out and the decline continues, we will add to the short as follows:
- a small part - when breaking the sustained uptrend on the 4-hour timeframe,
- a large part - when breaking the sustained uptrend on the weekly timeframe (which has not happened since the beginning of 2024).
By the way, although the price of gold has probably already passed the high of its growth in the cycle since 1982, retail continues to long. Funding continues to drip and provide profit.
The story with the listings of tokenized gold on crypto exchanges (as the apotheosis of attracting retail to accumulate positions while smart money distributes) is not over yet. For example, yesterday, March 26, tokenized gold XAUT from Tether was listed on #Binance.
It has been trading on perpetual futures for several months now.
According to #CryptoQuant data, the trading volume of the perpetual contract #XAUT on Binance recently reached $6.4 billion per day, setting a new historical maximum.
The perpetual contract XAUT has become the fifth largest trading pair among perpetual contracts on Binance by trading volume. Quite eloquent, don't you agree?