Brothers, this morning while browsing the news, I saw a message that made even this old leek unable to sit still. The spokesperson from the White House, Karoline Leavitt, spoke out, saying that the U.S. is still keeping an eye on Iran's actions, but President Trump is still considering diplomatic options.
This statement is quite interesting; on one hand, it says negotiations and diplomacy should be given a chance, while on the other hand, it states that Iran's military actions are ongoing. Isn't this just typical of 'fighting while talking'!
What is the situation really like?
According to the information I have seen, this war has been going on for nearly a month. The U.S. claims to have destroyed over 9,000 targets in Iran and sunk more than 140 vessels. Iran, on the other hand, is not backing down, claiming to have shot down 202 U.S. and Israeli military aircraft, including stealth fighters like the F-35.
The most critical point is the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes, and it is currently controlled by Iran. Oil prices have surged from $70 to over $110; this is no joke.
How does the crypto market react?
Do you know what I care about the most? It's not who won or lost, but how this affects our crypto assets.
To be honest, this war has revealed several new characteristics of the crypto market to me:
First, Bitcoin has truly become 'digital gold.' After the outbreak of the war, Bitcoin once rose more than 10%, breaking through $70,000. Why? Because Bitcoin is not tied to any country, and political risks during wartime have a limited impact on it. Moreover, the surge in oil prices has triggered inflation panic, and Bitcoin's fixed supply makes it a good hedging tool.
Second, the advantage of 24-hour trading is highlighted. Traditional markets close on weekends, but the crypto market operates around the clock. As soon as the news of the war came out, the crypto market became the most real-time price discovery window. Some exchanges' perpetual oil contracts jumped 5% over the weekend, providing important reference for traditional markets on Monday.
Third, practical applications are increasing. Reports show that cryptocurrency outflows from Iranian exchanges surged over 700% after the airstrikes began. Ordinary people use cryptocurrencies to move funds out of the country, bypassing bank restrictions. This indicates that in times of crisis, cryptocurrencies can really serve as a 'financial escape tool.'
My personal view
To be honest, seeing this data makes me both excited and worried.
What excites me is that the crypto market is proving its value. It is no longer just a 'casino' that only revels in bull markets, but has shown practicality and resilience during a real global crisis.
What worries me is that the volatility is too high. As soon as the news of the war came out, Bitcoin first plummeted and then quickly rebounded. There were a lot of liquidations in leveraged trading, and many newcomers might have been washed out.
I think at this stage, the crypto market is behaving a bit like a 'mixed asset'—it has characteristics of risk assets (high price volatility) and safe-haven assets (can preserve value in crises).
Advice for the brothers
Don't let emotions lead you. Seeing news of the war and frantically buying and selling makes it easiest to lose money. Stay calm and analyze long-term trends.
Position management is most important. The volatility caused by geopolitical events can lead to significant daily fluctuations. Be sure to manage your positions well and avoid going all in.
Focus on practical applications. Cryptocurrencies that have real applications during the war will be more valuable in the long run. It's not just about speculating on concepts, but about truly solving problems.
Diversified allocation. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Traditional assets, cryptocurrencies, and gold can all be appropriately allocated.
To say one last truth, no one can predict when this war will end. The Israeli military says it will take at least three weeks, and Trump's advisers estimate 4 to 6 weeks. But as crypto investors, we don't need to predict the outcome of the war; we just need to understand the market's reaction.
Remember, seeking certainty in uncertainty is what we should be doing. The market is always changing, but the logic of value investing remains constant.
That's all for today. Brothers, if you have any thoughts, see you in the comments!
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