Recently, the understanding king has become a bit anxious, with internal whispers saying they want to quickly withdraw from the conflict in Iran. To put it bluntly, this war is too costly and has directly pushed up inflation in the United States. With the midterm elections approaching, if the geopolitical tug-of-war continues, voters will only care about the cost of living, and a significant number of ballots will be lost.

From the perspective of us cryptocurrency investors, what direct impact does this macro trend have on Bitcoin?

🔥 Inflation cooling = liquidity expectations: If the war can truly cool down within a few weeks according to his script, and energy prices fall, the inflation pressure in the U.S. will decrease significantly. The Federal Reserve will have fewer excuses to maintain high interest rates, and once interest rate cut expectations rise, it will be the most direct benefit for risk assets.

⚠️ Short-term pin warning: Although they want to withdraw, the White House currently does not have a reliable exit plan. In the upcoming period, the progress of peace talks and front-line friction will definitely be repeatedly pulled back and forth. Such news-driven markets are the easiest to have upward and downward pins, so brothers trading contracts should watch more and act less, and must strictly set stop-losses.

📈 The 'implicit support' of election years: The understanding king is shifting attention back to domestic economy and elections, which means they must deliver a good economic report soon. The macro environment in election years is usually warmer, setting a good tone for the upcoming trends in the cryptocurrency market.

Geopolitical cooling is definitely a medium to long-term positive for macro liquidity, but in the short term, we must guard against high volatility caused by news.

If this wave truly leads to a ceasefire, do you think liquidity expectations can directly push Bitcoin past the current resistance level?