‼️Market pressure on Trump to de-escalate the Iran War is at extreme levels:

The Trump Pain Point Index, or "TACO Index," just hit ~2 standard deviations above the mean for the first time ever.

This index combines inverse S&P 500 returns, 10-year Treasury yields, 30-year mortgage rates, gasoline futures, 1-year CPI swaps, and presidential approval ratings into a single measure of economic and political pain.

Every major spike in the index over the last 15 months has been followed by a policy reversal or pause from the White House.

The 90-day pause on tariffs came after the April 2025 spike, the government shutdown ended after the September spike, the Greenland threat was dropped after the December spike, and most recently, Trump backed down from threats on Iranian energy infrastructure.

The pattern is consistent. When Treasury yields spike too much alongside falling stocks, Trump intervenes.

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