A cloud of "insider trading" regarding war and peace is intensifying on the world’s largest prediction market, Polymarket.
Just this Monday (March 23), former US President Trump made a high-profile post on Truth Social, stating that both the US and Iran have had "very good and productive dialogue" regarding ending the Middle East war, and announced a five-day suspension of strikes on Iranian power facilities. This explosive news quickly ignited global financial markets, with oil prices plummeting and stock index futures soaring. However, faster than the market reaction were a group of mysterious accounts lurking on Polymarket — they had already made significant bets on "the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire next week" hours or even earlier before Trump went public.
Is this really "divine calculation," or is it insider trading that touches the red line? As public opinion fermented, Polymarket urgently updated its market integrity rules, and members of both parties in the U.S. Congress rarely joined forces to try to rein in this rapidly developing industry.
I. Precise "pump and dump": Mysterious 10 accounts and million-dollar profits.
● According to on-chain data tracking, at least 10 recently created accounts have shown remarkable "foresight" in Polymarket's "U.S.-Iran ceasefire" market. These accounts concentrated their bets on the ceasefire agreement being reached by March 31 or April 15, with a total betting amount of about $160,000. If the ceasefire is achieved before the end of March, the potential profits from these bets will exceed $1 million.
● The timing of these accounts' position establishment is extremely sensitive. Most of them concentrated their entries around March 21, when Trump had not yet issued any ceasefire signals, and the implied probability of a ceasefire in the market was only about 6%. This means that these traders needed to bet heavily against the trend in a fog of extremely low odds. After Trump made a statement, the unrealized gains of this batch of positions instantly increased by over $300,000.
● Even more eye-catching is that this batch of accounts is not made up of "novices." One account named "NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS" can be called a "divine calculator." This account was opened at the end of February this year, and its first two transactions were betting $7,600 that the U.S. would strike Iran before February 28 and betting $11,283 that a strike would be carried out before March 1.
These two transactions brought the account over $85,000 in substantial profits. Now, this account is stepping in again, accurately betting on the ceasefire, and its historical record has led the public to associate it with significant information sources.
II. Insider trading or "cash ability"? On-chain traces expose doubts.
In the face of such precise timing ability, cryptocurrency market observers and detectives on platform X (formerly Twitter) quickly launched investigations. Ben Yorke, a former researcher at CoinTelegraph, pointed out that these transactions exhibit strong insider trading characteristics after analyzing the on-chain behavior of this batch of accounts.
The doubts mainly focus on two points:
1. Wallet splitting behavior: These accounts seem to have adopted a "splitting wallets" strategy, dispersing large amounts of funds into multiple newly created wallets for betting. Yorke pointed out that this practice usually has two possibilities: either it is large funds trying to avoid impacting the market, or it is to conceal identity, deliberately obscuring the true ownership of the funds.
2. Costly position establishment: These accounts did not adopt a gradual probing strategy for position establishment but quickly "pumped and dumped" near market prices or even directly at market prices, fearing they would miss the window. This urgent mentality is more like racing against time after acquiring certain information.
In addition to the on-chain doubts, similar "abnormal movements" have also appeared in traditional financial markets. According to reports, about 6,200 crude oil futures contracts suddenly changed hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange about 15 minutes before Trump posted, with a nominal value of about $580 million; the trading volume of mini S&P 500 futures also surged unusually at the same time. The "pump and dump" in the prediction market resonates with the movements in the futures market, deepening speculation about "insiders" leaking news in advance.
III. Platform "patching": Polymarket urgently updates insider trading rules.
Public pressure and regulatory risks have rapidly forced the platform to take action. On March 23, Polymarket announced a comprehensive update of its market integrity rules and launched a dedicated "market integrity page."
The new regulations clearly define three core red lines:
● Prohibition of trading using stolen confidential information: No one may use confidential information obtained through illegal means for prediction market trading.
● Prohibition of trading using illegal insider information: No one may use insider information transmitted illegally by others to establish positions.
● Prohibition of participation by influential entities: Any personnel capable of influencing event outcomes (such as company executives, policymakers, athletes, etc.) are prohibited from participating in the trading of related contracts.
Polymarket's Chief Legal Officer Neal Kumar stated in a statement: "The prosperity of the market relies on the clarity of rules. The strengthening of these rules clarifies our expectations for every participant." Analysts point out that this move may indicate that Polymarket will follow in the footsteps of competitor Kalshi and conduct a formal investigation into the aforementioned suspicious accounts.
IV. Regulatory "encirclement": Rare bipartisan cooperation, prediction markets face "removal of the foundation."
● If the platform's self-discipline is "patching up," then legislative actions from the U.S. Congress are the real "removal of the foundation." While Polymarket is mired in insider trading controversies, U.S. Senators Adam Schiff (Democrat) and John Curtis (Republican) have joined forces to introduce a bipartisan bill aimed at prohibiting prediction market platforms from launching contracts related to sports.
● This qualitative measure is a fatal blow to the prediction market industry. A large number of new transactions in the prediction market recently came from sports event products. If the bill passes, not only will Kalshi's business model be severely damaged, but Polymarket's expansion plans in the sports sector will also be completely blocked.
● At the same time, state-level regulatory crackdowns are also escalating. Several states have regarded Kalshi and Polymarket as "sports betting platforms dressed in technology" and have taken legal action to restrict them. Although the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), still under the control of the Trump administration, tends to support federal law over state law, concerns among bipartisan lawmakers regarding prediction contracts related to "war and death" are growing, placing the prediction market in a dangerous situation that simultaneously straddles the three red lines of financial regulation, gambling regulation, and insider trading regulation.
V. AiCoin Perspective: Transparent on-chain data makes it impossible for the "fox" to escape.
In the midst of the "U.S.-Iran ceasefire" insider trading doubts, the transparency of on-chain data has become the key to exposing the issues. This is precisely the core advantage of the AiCoin platform.
The Polymarket data dashboard built into AiCoin provides users with real-time on-chain trading monitoring, wallet fund flow tracking, and alerts for abnormal transactions. In this game about war and peace, ordinary investors often become the "bag holders" if they rely solely on delayed news information. Through AiCoin, users can:
1. Penetrating the veil of anonymity: Using AiCoin's on-chain analysis tools to track changes in large wallet holdings and timing of position establishment, identifying whether there is similar "concentrated position establishment" behavior as seen in this incident.
2. Monitoring market depth: Observing changes in buy and sell orders for key event contracts to assist in judging whether the influx of funds is a retail behavior or an institutional/insider "pump and dump."
3. Capture warning signals: Combine AiCoin's real-time news and on-chain monitoring system to receive alerts the moment implied probabilities in the market change, rather than waiting until news has fermented to respond.
As of the time of publication, the implied probability of a ceasefire by "March 31" on Polymarket has surged from 6% before the event to 24%, with total betting amounts exceeding $21 million. Regardless of the final result of this gamble, it has already left a profound lesson for this emerging industry: in the absolutely transparent on-chain world, there are no eternal secrets, only stricter regulations and smarter tools. For investors, rather than blindly following so-called "mysterious accounts," it is better to use professional tools like AiCoin to find their own certainty amid the fog of information.