Let's talk some genuine feelings.
I've been in this circle for some years now and have seen too many smart people exit early. In contrast, those who can still stand and chat at the end are often not the fastest to react or the sharpest thinkers, but rather those who seem a bit 'dull', even a bit 'foolish'. I count myself among them.
Every penny I earn has nothing to do with inside information or luck. It all comes down to one thing: treating myself like a 'fool' to understand the even 'foolisher' forces—market sentiment and the big hand behind it.
The lessons I've learned from hurting myself over the years are summarized into a few simple truths. These are my opinions; take a listen.
1. Quick pull and slow push, may not be arriving at the station.
The price suddenly spikes up and then slowly retreats. Many people feel it's reached the top and hurry to sell. But what I see is mostly not the end, but rather big funds exchanging hands, washing out those who are not steadfast with their positions. At such times, those who are anxious to get out often fall before dawn.
2. Sudden crash and slow climb, mostly a trap.
What I fear most is when the price suddenly collapses and then slowly creeps back up a bit, giving you the illusion that 'since it has dropped so much, it must be time to buy the dip.' To be honest, this is often the last wave of baiting, specifically designed to attract those who think they are 'getting a bargain.' Don't be anchored by the price; a significant drop is never a reason for an increase.
3. High volume at the top is not to be feared; what is feared is 'silence'.
The price is at a relatively high position. As long as trading remains active and there is volume, it indicates that the bulls and bears are still in fierce combat, and the market has not finished yet. What we really need to be cautious about is when the price is stagnant but the trading volume suddenly drops. This kind of 'silence' is often the most oppressive moment before a storm.
4. The bottom cannot be drawn with just one line.
Seeing a big bullish line after a long decline, many people shout reversal. I advise you to stay calm. The real bottom is a process of repeated friction and patience testing. It requires seeing a continuous period of moderate and sustained volume; only then might it be that big funds are quietly positioning themselves. A sudden line is more like a lure to attract attention.
5. Don't just focus on the price, that's just the result.
Price is like a score, while trading volume is the real performance in class. K-line charts can depict various patterns, but the force behind buying and selling, the real emotions of bulls and bears, are hidden in the volume. Understanding emotions is much more practical than guessing where the price will jump next.
6. True skill is being able to 'not play'.
This is not cowardice. When things are unclear and the rhythm is off, being able to control oneself and hold cash is a form of high-level discipline. Not chasing highs is restraint, and not being eager to 'make back losses' is confidence. When you can maintain a state of 'detachment' towards any market situation, that's when the game truly starts to serve you.
I don't deal with fluff, only talk about the market itself. This market always has opportunities, but opportunities are only reserved for those willing to use 'simple' methods and uphold their true intentions. If you are also tired of chasing highs and cutting losses, and want to calmly refine your own strategy, feel free to communicate and improve together.
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