2026.3.24 Macro Market Analysis

(1) The King of Understanding Paints K-Line Charts

Yesterday, the King of Understanding announced a 5-day pause in military strikes against Iran and hinted that the two sides had reached a consensus, with a ceasefire imminent.

As soon as the news broke, oil prices plummeted, and risk assets surged!

But Iran responded, saying there were no talks, it’s fake news, and the market reacted with a sharp decline!

Remember, the King of Understanding’s nonsense should not be trusted; he has 8 different statements in a day!

(2) When will the US and Iran ceasefire?

In the short term, the possibility is low. Iran wants the Beautiful Country to pay compensation and acknowledge aggressive actions, which is almost impossible. According to Polymarket data, the probability of a ceasefire before April 15 is 35%, and by the end of April, it is 55%.

(3) 24th Day of the Strait of Hormuz

No matter what the US and Iran say, the strait remains closed, with only single-digit numbers of ships passing through each day, and oil prices are still not dropping.

(4) How to survive in this market?

1. Only trade short-term contracts, no big positions. Yesterday, there was a liquidation of 665 million US dollars, and a single statement from the King of Understanding caused positions to explode instantly.

2. The conflict will not end so quickly. When the situation is unclear, do not take large positions.

3. For the time being, observe the spot market, wait to accumulate Bitcoin in batches below 55,000 US dollars. Yesterday, a micro strategy bought 1,031 Bitcoins and prepared to raise 4.2 billion US dollars to continue increasing positions.

4. Stay away from junk altcoins, like the malicious project SIREN, don’t touch it, act as if it doesn’t exist.

5. Currently, focus on altcoins TAO and HYPE for potential interest.