Financial Research Society - March 24, 2026
Core Logic of News
1. Macroeconomics and Hedging: Trump suspends military strikes on Iran for 5 days, short-term hedging sentiment cools, funds flow back to risk assets, driving a rebound in cryptocurrency;
2. Institutional Benefits: NYSE cancels the position limit for BTC/ETH spot ETF options, expanding institutional trading space, coupled with continued layouts by BlackRock and others, forming medium to long-term buying support;
3. Regulatory Differentiation: Hong Kong issues the first batch of stablecoin licenses, favorable for compliant tracks; domestically reaffirms Document No. 206, blocking cross-border violations, concentrating funds into compliant channels;
4. On-chain Data: BTC net outflow from exchanges, long-term addresses increase holdings; ETH receives a large single-day increase from BitMine, with a high staking rate, and a clear expectation of supply contraction.
5. Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that he still expects four rate cuts in 2026. If a second-round effect of (inflation) and wage increases occurs, rate hikes may be necessary, but currently, he does not believe there is a need to consider rate hikes.
Bitcoin's reference range today:
Support levels: around 69000, around 68200, around 67500
Resistance levels: around 71000, around 71500
Ethereum's reference range today:
Support levels: around 2065, around 2020, around 1945
Resistance levels: around 2180, around 2250
Bitcoin rebounded to the upper Bollinger band and then fell back on the four-hour level, with the daily line retracing to the middle Bollinger band. Yinuo believes that yesterday's rebound was based on the news-driven spike over the past five days, with the war and American rhetoric still affecting cryptocurrency, gold, and stock market trends. Yesterday, crude oil dropped sharply, leading to some fund inflow. From the indicator's trend, Bitcoin is still in a bottoming oscillation at the daily line.
Risk Warning: Repeated geopolitical tensions, regulatory policy changes, risk of leveraged fund liquidation, strict position control is required to avoid excessive chasing and selling.