I. Oil prices plummeted by 10% overnight! What happened?
First, let's look at the data: Yesterday (March 23), international oil prices experienced a roller coaster market -
London Brent crude: closed at $99.94/barrel, down 10.92%
New York WTI crude: closed at $88.13/barrel, down 10.28%
The intra-day volatility was even more exaggerated: Brent crude once surged to $113, then plummeted below $100, with a daily fluctuation exceeding 14%.
Today in the Asia-Pacific early session, oil prices rebounded slightly: WTI reported $88.83, Brent reported $96.32.
II. Why Did It Drop? The U.S.-Iran Negotiation Dilemma
Trump spoke: On the morning of the 23rd, Trump stated that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in "very good and productive" dialogue over the past two days, and he has instructed the Department of Defense to postpone military strikes on Iranian energy facilities by 5 days.
Iran immediately denied: Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf posted on social media, denying any negotiations with the U.S., calling it 'false news manipulating financial and oil markets.'
More dramatically, Iran's Fars News Agency revealed: one of the purposes of fabricating false negotiation news is to create conditions for the assassination of the Iranian parliament speaker.
In summary: The market is being led by the contradictory statements from both the U.S. and Iran, resulting in a dual slaughter of oil prices.
Three, what does it mean for the crypto circle?
Short term: The sharp drop in oil prices has released some inflation pressure, positively affecting risk assets in the short term. Last night, U.S. stocks rebounded over 1%, and BTC stabilized with the market.
Medium term: Pay attention to three points —
Oil prices remain high. Brent crude is around $100, far above the level at the beginning of the year. Goldman Sachs has raised its average Brent crude price forecast for March-April to $110.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, disrupting about 20% of global oil transport. The head of the International Energy Agency, Birol, warned: this is at a level of 'oil supply disruption surpassing the oil crisis of the 1970s.'
Thousands of U.S. Marines are scheduled to arrive in the Middle East on March 27 — this is exactly the 'deadline' set by Trump for reopening the Strait for Iran.
Four, my judgment
Is the U.S.-Iran negotiation making real progress or just a smokescreen? The market has chosen to 'believe half' — oil prices fell by 10% instead of 20%, indicating that traders are betting on 'eventually reaching an agreement,' but they do not dare to be completely complacent.
Five, for left-side traders:
Oil prices are the 'leading indicator' of inflation. A drop in oil prices = more room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
But the situation may change at any time; March 27 is the next key date.
BTC has consolidated around $68,000 for several days, and the pricing of geopolitical risks is being cleared.
This week's plan remains unchanged: 10% at $68,000, 20% at $66,000, 30% at $64,000, and 40% at $62,000. Wait for the wind and don't chase highs.
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