I am not blindly supporting anyone's victory or defeat, but rather discussing from objective facts and conditions why the longer the situation in the Middle East drags on, the more advantageous it is for Iran. Regarding "On Protracted War," we are indeed familiar with it.~

1. The US-Iran conflict is a result of mutual misjudgment. Iran thought that the US would keep its promise after signing the agreement, but the US flipped and bombed high-ranking officials, suffering a huge loss; the US thought that decapitating Iran's highest leader would paralyze Iran, but they were mistaken.

2. Trump’s approach towards Iran had four fatal miscalculations: Iran's retaliation was already planned and was extremely fierce, not just a quick explosion; Iran has complex terrain and underground facilities, making them particularly resilient, bombing is essentially ineffective; Iran dared to directly blockade the Strait of Hormuz, turning US maritime hegemony into a joke; after the attack, hardliners in Iran took complete control, moderates lost their voice, and there was no place for talks.

3. Iran's big move is not missiles or drones, but learning from Trump about taxation, planning to charge a 10% toll on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. This move specifically targets America's weak point, not only can it earn a lot of money but also make US allies pay, dismantling the logic of America's global taxation hegemony.

4. Trump now has nowhere to retreat; withdrawing troops would be equivalent to admitting that hegemony has collapsed, continuing the fight provides no good solutions, airstrikes cannot destroy Iran's facilities, and sending ground troops risks repeating the Afghan disaster, leaving him in a dilemma.

5. Iran is currently focusing on attrition warfare, not engaging in direct confrontation, relying on blockading the strait, collecting tolls, and conducting guerrilla warfare to raise the cost of American warfare, while also collaborating with surrounding armed forces against Israel. Time is on Iran's side; as long as they can hold on, the US will eventually be unable to sustain itself.

6. This war will become a negative teaching material for reckless militarism; Trump has been dragged down by Israel, exposing the naked truth of American hegemony, and is likely to be nailed to the pillar of historical shame. #特朗普48小时最后通牒