Bitcoin fell last week, but the adjustment was still lighter compared to the stock market's decline since the Iran conflict erupted on 28/2.
The largest digital asset in the world is trading around $68,000 today, down about 2% in 24 hours and approximately 6% over the past 7 days, according to data from CoinGecko.
This move comes in the context of the Iran conflict entering its fourth week, pushing crude oil prices higher and putting pressure on risk assets broadly at the end of last week.
Geopolitical tensions continued to escalate over the weekend as Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, or face attacks on power plants. In response, Tehran threatened to completely close this vital oil transport route and target energy infrastructure related to the U.S. in the region.
The U.S. stock market has declined for four consecutive weeks, with the S&P 500 breaking the 200-day moving average last week – a key technical threshold closely monitored by institutional investors – for the first time since March last year. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell about 4%–5% this month.
Meanwhile, energy is the only sector that has grown, as oil prices gradually return to the $100/barrel mark.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin's monthly decline is still significantly lower than that of stocks. Some investors believe this is due to the deleveraging process that has already occurred in the crypto market, along with institutional capital remaining stable.
According to CF Benchmarks, Bitcoin is currently trading at a significant discount compared to global liquidity trends. Specifically, the global money supply M2 has increased by about 12% since mid-2025, while Bitcoin has decreased by about 35% during the same period. A pricing model in this unit's report estimates that the 'fair value' of Bitcoin could reach around $136,000.
Mr. John O’Loghlen, APAC Regional Director at Coinbase, stated that after several rounds of deleveraging, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed traditional assets when considering risk since the Iran conflict began.
He also emphasized that as oil becomes an 'active transmission channel of global inflation,' institutional capital is increasing into crypto assets and Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.
"There are initial signs that the crypto market may have passed the most pessimistic phase. However, to form a sustainable upward trend, stronger participation is needed," he noted.
From an internal perspective, experts believe that the crypto market is exhibiting resilience instead of facing strong sell-offs. Mr. Nischal Shetty, founder of WazirX, stated that the market is in a phase of stable accumulation, with clear signs of institutional capital flow.
Bitcoin currently maintains support at the recent lower range, while facing resistance at short-term peak levels, indicating that buying pressure remains active despite macroeconomic instability.
VanEck's mid-March ChainCheck report also indicated that selling pressure from long-term investors has decreased, as the trading volume of long-standing coins has weakened – a sign that the group of experienced investors is restricting distribution.
Analysts suggest that Bitcoin's next movements will largely depend on macroeconomic data in the coming week, including the preliminary PMI index of major economies and oil price fluctuations – factors that increasingly affect inflation and global interest rate expectations.
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