2026.3.23 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

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(1) 23rd Day of the Hormuz Strait Blockade

Last Saturday, the understanding king warned Iran that if they don't open within 48 hours, they would strike power facilities.

Iran responded: We will completely close the strait; I won't even give you a glance.

Currently, the probability of a ceasefire is extremely low, oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and there will be no relief in the short term.

If oil prices don't drop, inflation won't decrease, and expectations for interest rate cuts won't drop, the crypto market will have no movement.

(2) BSC Standalone Coin SIREN Soars

SIREN is suspected to be controlled by DWF, holding 88.5% of the total supply,

They can pump it or dump it as they wish; there's no need to participate in such projects, regardless of bullish or bearish trends.

There's no need to lick blood off the tip of a knife; what you're licking is not blood, it's your principal.

(3) Global Stock Market Crash

The KOSPI index in South Korea plunged 6% in a single day, the Japan-Korea stock markets opened with major declines, and the US stock market is in a state of bloodshed, with the S&P falling for four consecutive weeks.

Mainly referencing (1), because the war prevents inflation from decreasing, and expectations for interest rate cuts are not coming down.

(4) USR Depegged 95%

Over the weekend, the stablecoin USR depegged to $0.049, dropping over 95%,

You can lose money even holding stablecoins; don't touch unknown stablecoin investments.

(5) ETF/On-chain Data

Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow for three consecutive days, US stock users are in panic,

There are no signs of inflow in the Bitcoin inventory on exchanges, and large holders are still observing, but thankfully there hasn't been a panic sell-off.

Operational Suggestions

1. If the strait is not unblocked and the war is not stopped, do not heavily invest.

2. Bitcoin at $68,000 is a short-term support; if it breaks, look at the $64,000-66,000 range.

3. Don't touch garbage altcoins, don't touch garbage altcoins, don't touch garbage altcoins.

4. Don't invest in unknown stablecoin products to avoid being harvested.

5. Below $55,000, staggered dollar-cost average into BTC spot; only do short-term trades for contracts.

6. If oil prices do not drop and crypto does not rise, wait for the wind to come, don't rush.