The Official Trump (TRUMP) price is currently trading around 3.21 USD, down 1.32% for the day, after nearly losing all of the 49.65% gain achieved on March 13. Notably, this token is currently only 3.2% higher than its all-time low (2.705 USD), amid many on-chain signals indicating that sellers still dominate.
Selling pressure increases as tokens flood onto exchanges
Data from Glassnode shows that during the price rally in mid-March, TRUMP holders rushed to transfer tokens to exchanges. The exchange balance surged from about 15 million tokens (March 7–9) to nearly 41 million tokens on March 14.
About 26 million tokens were loaded in the price range near 4 USD, equivalent to approximately 104 million USD of potential supply for sellers at the peak. Just 24 hours later, the balance dropped to 19.5 million tokens as selling pressure was absorbed and the price quickly reversed.
TRUMP token balance on exchanges | Source: Glassnode
Since March 15, the balance has remained around 18.5 million tokens — still significantly higher than the beginning of the month, reflecting ongoing selling pressure that has not yet been fully alleviated.
Money flow is clearly weakening
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator continues to reinforce the negative trend. After hitting -0.26 in early March, the CMF recovered to near 0 on March 13 — coinciding with the price increase. However, the recovery momentum has quickly weakened.
Currently, CMF has returned to -0.14, the second lowest since February 19, and has not been able to maintain a positive range since late February. This indicates that capital is still flowing out of the market.
CMF index of TRUMP token | Source: TradingView
To ease selling pressure, CMF needs to surpass the level of 0 and maintain stability — something that has not occurred in nearly a month.
Price outlook: Risk of returning to historical lows
Since the peak on March 13 around 4.04 USD, TRUMP has decreased by 20.61% to the current level. Subsequent measurement models suggest a potential further decline of about 15.76%, bringing the price down to the area of 2.71 USD — close to the historical low of 2.705 USD.
Analysis of TRUMP token price | Source: TradingView
The current price is trading below the Fibonacci extension level of 1.0 at 3.309 USD, making this area a resistance. The level of 2.941 USD (Fibonacci 1.236) is the next important support zone before the price retests the old low.
If the daily candle closes below 3.00 USD, the market may lose the last psychological support zone, opening up risks of returning to the historical low area.
Although the Mar-a-Lago gala event for holders acted as a short-term catalyst, this effect has now completely weakened. To reverse the trend, buyers need to push the price above 3.642 USD (Fibonacci 0.786) on the daily timeframe. In the absence of new momentum, the scenario of retesting the low of 2.705 USD remains the most likely target.
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