2026.3.19 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

First, let's see what Powell said last night, the conclusion can be summarized in three sentences:

1. Maintain interest rates

2. The probability of interest rate cuts this year is only 50%

3. War in the Middle East, energy inflation cannot be ignored

The market collapsed directly after hearing this, Bitcoin fell below 71,000, and the US stock market is in chaos!

The core logic of the decline is that inflation has not been controlled, the bear market is in a downward trend, oil prices have surged due to the Hormuz situation, and there are additional tariffs. Three sources of inflation are pressing down simultaneously, and Powell does not dare to loosen up on rate cuts. Rate cuts have become a luxury, and there is even a possibility of rate hikes.

How to operate

1. Move less and observe more, only do short-term contracts, gradually invest in Bitcoin below 60,000

2. Refer to Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, at the position of 58,837

3. Pay attention to the war situation, currently Hormuz is still blocked, oil prices are not falling and cryptocurrencies are not rising

4. Pay attention to HYPE, the S&P 500 perpetual contract authorization has landed, the product is solid, and the good news keeps coming, very strong

Yesterday it was also emphasized that the average correction after the FOMC is 5-8% within 48 hours, are there any brothers shorting? Currently following this script, be patient and wait for opportunities!