Last night, Powell spoke, and I was glued to the screen until 3 AM; the more I watched, the more uneasy I felt.
This old man didn't mention Bitcoin once, but the crypto market collapsed directly—BTC fell below 70,000, ETH dropped below 2,200, with 135,000 people liquidated across the entire network, and 450 million dollars vanished into thin air. Isn't that strange?
The core message is actually one sentence: What Powell fears is not inflation, but 'inflation expectations.'
What does this mean? Translated into plain language: In the past, everyone thought that high inflation would lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to save the market, allowing hot money to gamble. Now, Powell directly says, 'If we don't see progress on inflation, we won't cut rates.' Once global big money hears this, the logic changes—the anti-inflation story can't be told anymore, and the narrative of 'digital gold' is facing its biggest refutation at the start of the year.
There's something even harsher.
He mentioned 'energy prices' and 'the Middle East'. This directly relates to the survival of miners. The Iran conflict pushes up oil prices, and when electricity costs for mining rise, computational power drops directly by 8%. What should miners do if they have to pay electricity bills? They can only sell coins. This selling pressure is like a sword hanging over their heads, ready to fall at any time.
The most extreme is this sentence: 'Decisions made in sequential meetings.' There is no roadmap, it all depends on mood. This means that every rebound could be shattered by the next 'sudden hawkish stance'. Your leverage is like running naked in the Federal Reserve's minefield.
To be honest, I have seen too many people die from luck. Always thinking 'if I hold on a little longer, I can rebound', but the deeper they hold on.
What to do now? My suggestions are threefold:
First, abandon the fantasy of 'Niu Hui'. Before the inflation demon is put back, every rebound is an escape window, not a charge call.
Second, reduce your positions. Keep BTC and ETH spot, cut off all unclear value altcoins. Cash is king.
Third, don't just focus on K-lines. Next time, watch the Federal Reserve and understand their level of fear regarding inflation—that is the determination for capital to withdraw.
Jin Yao finally said:
The market never kills during a bear market, but it is your luck. Real good opportunities are born when most people have completely forgotten. Now is the moment to verify whether what you hold is an asset or a bubble.
Stay calm, survive, and there will be the next wave.