🎁The Federal Reserve will hold a policy meeting from March 17 to 18. According to the CME FedWatch Tool data, the market expects a 99.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting, and the likelihood of a rate cut is extremely low.
Adjustment of Rate Cut Timing
Due to recent inflation data and geopolitical factors, the market's expectations for the timing of rate cuts have been postponed. Traders expect the Federal Reserve's next rate cut may occur in September, with a probability of about 43% for a second rate cut before the end of the year.
Analysis of Influencing Factors
On inflation: February's CPI data shows overall inflation is moderate, but energy prices have surged due to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, and inflationary pressures may increase in the coming months, affecting the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions.
On employment: February's non-farm payroll data is weak, with a decrease of 92,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, indicating a weakening labor market, but the dual risks of inflation and employment make the Federal Reserve's decisions more cautious.
In summary, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the short term, and the timing of a rate cut may be delayed until September or later, depending on subsequent inflation, employment data, and geopolitical changes.
