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chain郭
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The market is still the same market, each time different, yet every time the same. Each time, large liquidations or concentrated liquidations generally jump into the self-enhancement path of believers, the vast starry river of Bitcoin, the sea of clouds of Ethereum, such as the $10,000 seen by Yili Hua. However, in the financial market, the firmer the faith, the more transparent the positions (90,000 long BTC, 3,000 long ETH, right?). But in the crypto circle, faith cannot compete with liquidity. Shorts don’t need a narrative, just look at your liquidation price. Could it be that the faith in the crypto circle is just our arrogance towards risk (like the 1011 giant whale)? When liquidated, it makes the fireworks a bit more splendid. When Yili Hua leaves the scene, he leaves a line: It's hard for people not to always be bullish! When hundreds of whales fall, everything is born. Brother Sun is calmly placing orders, and the Binance SAFU fund has phased in to buy the dip with 1 billion BTC. There are no gods in the crypto circle, but there is 'me'.
It's time for self-indulgent technical analysis BTC (Elliott Wave Theory ABC):
Wave A: 126,000 → 80,600 (drop of 36%)
Wave B: 80,600 → 97,900 (rebound of 21.5%)
Wave C: 97,900 → to date (dropped about 38.7%, lowest 60,000)
According to the wave theory, the end of Wave C = the end of the A-B-C decline in this round, and only two paths remain:
1. Most ideal: A new upward Wave 5 starts (bull market continues), first build a bottom (repeated grinding, low volume, small K-line) and break through key resistance (like 72,000) in a volume expansion to go 1-2-3-4-5, then create new highs.
2. More common: A larger level of adjustment/sideways (not directly rising) goes through a double three-wave (W-X-Y), triangle, platform consolidation, range oscillation, time for space, no more violent declines like Wave C, but also difficult to rise quickly.
How to judge if Wave C is really finished? No new lows, rebound with volume, pullback with low volume, stabilize above the short-term moving average ma30, appear bottom divergence, the fear and greed index starts to rise, bottom structures (bottom triangles, head and shoulders bottom, box breakout, etc.) should meet as many conditions as possible! (Figure 2) Ethereum is similar! #BTC
It's time for self-indulgent technical analysis BTC (Elliott Wave Theory ABC):
Wave A: 126,000 → 80,600 (drop of 36%)
Wave B: 80,600 → 97,900 (rebound of 21.5%)
Wave C: 97,900 → to date (dropped about 38.7%, lowest 60,000)
According to the wave theory, the end of Wave C = the end of the A-B-C decline in this round, and only two paths remain:
1. Most ideal: A new upward Wave 5 starts (bull market continues), first build a bottom (repeated grinding, low volume, small K-line) and break through key resistance (like 72,000) in a volume expansion to go 1-2-3-4-5, then create new highs.
2. More common: A larger level of adjustment/sideways (not directly rising) goes through a double three-wave (W-X-Y), triangle, platform consolidation, range oscillation, time for space, no more violent declines like Wave C, but also difficult to rise quickly.
How to judge if Wave C is really finished? No new lows, rebound with volume, pullback with low volume, stabilize above the short-term moving average ma30, appear bottom divergence, the fear and greed index starts to rise, bottom structures (bottom triangles, head and shoulders bottom, box breakout, etc.) should meet as many conditions as possible! (Figure 2) Ethereum is similar! #BTC
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