From daily, 4 hours, 1 hour, and 15 minutes for BTC analysis

The October high point of about $126,000 has retraced over 50%, indicating a clear bear market. The overall market sentiment is leaning towards extreme fear. Below is a technical and volume-price analysis from daily, 4 hours, 1 hour, and 15 minutes.

Daily——Assessing the overall trend

Trend: As shown in Figure 1

The price is in a descending channel, struggling to rebound after multiple tests of the lower boundary. Currently oscillating near the 61.8%–78.6% Fibonacci level of the 2025 high retracement (approximately $65,000–$68,000).

Indicators:

MACD: Death cross continues downward, with the histogram expanding or maintaining negative values.

Volume-Price Relationship:

During the recent decline, volume has clearly increased, while the rebound is weak, likely a result of short covering, with reduced volume during the rebound, exhibiting classic weak characteristics of price decline with increased volume and price increase with decreased volume.

4 Hours——Medium-term trend assessment As shown in Figure 2

Key levels: Resistance above at $67,000–$68,500, support below at $65,340–$66,000. If broken, it may accelerate due to panic selling caused by long liquidations.

Volume-Price: The volume during the decline has significantly increased, while it has shrunk during the rebound, indicating that the bulls are weak and the bears still hold the initiative.

Conclusion: The 4H remains weak with bearish oscillations, if it rebounds to $67,800–$68,500, a small short position can be taken. If it cannot break out with increased volume, it is highly likely to continue to probe down to $65,340 or even lower.

1 Hour——Short-term level

Structure: Short-term box oscillation: $65,340–$68,000 range.

Volume-Price: Volume has clearly increased during the decline, but is insufficient during the rebound. A typical volume-price divergence characteristic (price slightly rises but volume decreases), indicating weak willingness for spot buying.

Conclusion: The 1H short-term shows a need for oversold rebound, but as long as it does not break above $68,000–$68,500 with increased volume, the primary bearish strategy of shorting high and longing low will remain, with most rebounds being profit taking by the bears.

15 Minutes——Ultra-short-term level

Structure: Weak pattern of decline - consolidation - further decline.

Comprehensive volume-price assessment: The most obvious current feature is that there is volume during the decline and no volume during the rise, usually indicating that the trend is still downward, with severely insufficient bullish strength. Unless there is consecutive volume above $70,000 for several days, the strategy will still focus on shorting during rebounds.