[发] Accurate Market Analysis 2.13
Brothers, good morning. The market is still sluggish. How will the trend develop next?
From the ETF perspective, the inflow of funds is still not much. Recently, there was a bottom-fishing inflow in the past three days, and yesterday $270 million flowed out.
This week, the strong non-farm data from January completely closed the door on the possibility of interest rate cuts in March, even leading to a delay in the first rate cut expectation for the year, which is bearish.
At the same time, Chuanzi stated yesterday that he expected the U.S. and Iran to reach an agreement within the next month,
and issued an ultimatum, saying that if an agreement is not signed, action will be taken against Iran.
The situation is not optimistic!
From Chuanzi's political logic, starting a war is a highly risky gamble; if it happens, the approval ratings will decline.
Oil prices will rise, inflation will increase, and the Fed's hope for rate cuts will be dashed.
In the mid-term elections in November this year, the Republican Party will undoubtedly lose.
Even their family's Bitcoin business will be significantly impacted.
On the Iranian side, inflation has reached 60%, and the economy is collapsing.
If refusal to compromise leads to a full-scale war, the regime may collapse directly.
The Iranian authorities will verbally maintain the highest intensity of protests and threats,
but in action, they are likely to secretly convey acceptable proposals to the U.S.
Therefore, the probability of not going to war is 70%, and the probability of going to war is 30%.
One factor that may contribute to a market recovery is the peaceful resolution of the Iran issue within the next two months.
Before that, there will not be a significant rebound in BTC recently,
the lowest may fall to around $60000.
At 9:30 tonight, CPI will be released, and if it exceeds expectations, it may lead to another drop in BTC.
But in any case, we are very close to the bottom; the bear market should have completed half of its course.